Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-23-2024

Dec 23, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:54 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.652

$3.748

-2.56%

-$0.096

51,879

 

 

WTI

$68.96

$69.46

-0.72%

-$0.50

82,662

 

 

Brent

$72.27

$72.94

-0.92%

-$0.67

9,219

 

 

ULSD

$2.222

$2.232

-0.43%

-$0.010

5,473

 

 

RBOB

$1.925

$1.942

-0.86%

-$0.017

4,267

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.33

$3.48

-4.31%

-$0.15

Feb-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$16.38

$16.46

-0.46%

-$0.07

Feb-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$59.95

$57.51

4.24%

$2.44

Jan-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/20/24

589

0

-31

12/23/23

 

 

Canada

12/20/24

166

-25

20

12/23/23

 

 

International

Nov

919

-31

-59

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/17/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

89,524

89,138

89,077

61

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,405

83,325

82,434

891

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

329,663

317,346

315,738

1,608

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

162,902

138,833

136,490

2,343

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

154,989

147,240

147,842

-602

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,655

31,726

32,166

-440

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

140,649

139,882

140,308

-426

 

 

RBOB

389,438

367,350

368,473

-1,123

 

 

HSC Basis

853,824

842,973

841,779

1,194

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/13/19

 

 

 

12/13/24

12/6/24

Net Change

% Change

12/15/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

822

856

-34

-3.97%

834

-1.44%

816

0.74%

 

 

Midwest

1,007

1,055

-48

-4.55%

1,021

-1.37%

981

2.67%

 

 

Mountain

274

282

-8

-2.84%

236

16.10%

198

38.10%

 

 

Pacific

296

302

-6

-1.99%

283

4.59%

256

15.81%

 

 

South

1,222

1,251

-29

-2.32%

1,203

1.58%

1,176

3.88%

 

 

    Salt

338

340

-2

-0.59%

331

2.11%

332

1.93%

 

 

    Non_Salt

884

911

-27

-2.96%

872

1.38%

844

4.69%

 

 

Total

3,622

3,747

-125

-3.34%

3,577

1.26%

3,427

5.69%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/24

12/19/24

% Change

Change

11/21/24

% Change

12/21/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-25

$67.77

$65.53

3.42%

$2.24

$65.35

3.71%

$63.27

7.12%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-25

$64.78

$61.20

5.84%

$3.58

$59.27

9.29%

$84.02

-22.91%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-25

$52.00

$50.50

2.97%

$1.50

$53.60

-2.99%

$80.82

-35.66%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-25

$60.14

$58.08

3.54%

$2.05

$58.08

3.55%

$57.71

4.20%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-25

$122.80

$119.13

3.09%

$3.68

$117.72

4.32%

$117.22

4.77%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-25

$72.00

$70.33

2.38%

$1.67

$82.03

-12.22%

$101.57

-29.11%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-25

$97.45

$93.29

4.46%

$4.17

$91.67

6.30%

$80.89

20.48%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/24

12/19/24

% Change

Change

11/21/24

% Change

12/21/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-25

$3.748

$3.584

4.58%

$0.16

$3.48

7.64%

$3.75

-0.16%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-25

-$0.042

-$0.051

-18.16%

$0.01

-$0.16

-73.21%

$0.20

-120.64%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-25

$0.722

$0.619

-14.27%

$0.10

$0.87

-17.09%

$0.85

-14.61%

 

 

Waha

Jan-25

-$0.447

-$0.477

-6.15%

$0.03

-$0.56

-20.49%

-$0.08

452.90%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-25

$10.005

$9.423

6.18%

$0.58

$9.37

6.73%

$9.31

7.42%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-25

-$2.235

-$2.109

5.97%

-$0.13

-$1.78

25.38%

-$1.31

70.85%

 

 

Socal

Jan-25

$0.668

$0.657

1.60%

$0.01

$1.69

-60.36%

$2.86

-76.61%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/24

12/19/24

% Change

Change

11/21/24

% Change

12/21/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-25

$0.770

$0.768

0.32%

$0.00

$0.82

-5.64%

$0.71

8.78%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-25

$0.771

$0.770

0.16%

$0.00

$0.82

-5.77%

$0.71

8.68%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-25

$0.235

$0.230

2.17%

$0.01

$0.22

5.65%

$0.24

-1.55%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.470

$1.464

0.41%

$0.01

$1.48

-0.64%

$1.43

3.11%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-25

$1.110

$1.083

2.55%

$0.03

$1.04

6.89%

$0.85

30.01%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-25

$5.980

$6.001

-0.34%

-$0.02

$6.24

-4.13%

$5.88

1.72%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-25

$6.230

$6.236

-0.10%

-$0.01

$6.18

0.82%

$5.47

13.83%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/24

12/19/24

% Change

Change

11/21/24

% Change

12/21/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-25

$69.46

$69.38

0.12%

$0.08

$69.77

-0.44%

$71.85

-3.33%

 

 

Brent

Feb-25

$72.94

$72.88

0.08%

$0.06

$73.77

-1.13%

$76.58

-4.75%

 

 

WCS

Feb-25

-$13.15

-$13.55

-3.04%

$0.40

-$12.73

3.32%

-$15.06

-12.71%

 

 

LLS

Feb-25

$71.39

$72.01

-0.86%

-$0.62

$71.71

-0.45%

$73.57

-2.96%

 

 

Mars

Feb-25

$68.94

$69.61

-0.97%

-$0.67

$68.60

0.49%

$70.66

-2.44%

 

 

Sour

Feb-25

$69.42

$70.05

-0.92%

-$0.64

$69.99

-0.82%

$71.50

-2.92%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-25

$70.94

$70.88

0.08%

$0.06

$71.77

-1.16%

$74.58

-4.88%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/24

12/19/24

% Change

Change

11/21/24

% Change

12/21/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-25

$2.24

$2.23

0.45%

$0.01

$2.26

-0.66%

$2.48

-9.71%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.94

$1.91

1.52%

$0.03

$1.98

-2.02%

$2.03

-4.10%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.84

$1.81

1.60%

$0.03

$1.88

-2.12%

$1.93

-4.31%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-25

$2.15

$2.16

-0.46%

-$0.01

$2.10

2.29%

$2.25

-4.62%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-25

$1.62

$1.60

1.44%

$0.02

$1.58

2.60%

$1.53

5.54%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-25

$630.59

$634.63

-0.64%

-$4.04

$642.48

-1.85%

$682.58

-7.62%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-25

$86.39

$87.81

-1.62%

-$1.42

$89.69

-3.69%

$94.55

-8.64%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/24

12/19/24

% Change

Change

11/21/24

% Change

12/21/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-25

83.35%

71.75%

16.17%

11.60%

82.12%

1.50%

52.29%

59.40%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-25

95.85%

80.48%

19.10%

15.37%

97.93%

-2.12%

66.33%

44.50%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-25

94.74%

82.66%

14.61%

12.08%

101.69%

-6.83%

52.23%

81.39%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-25

83.64%

68.87%

21.45%

14.77%

80.26%

4.21%

48.63%

71.99%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-25

102.28%

100.01%

2.27%

2.27%

89.51%

14.27%

46.12%

121.77%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-25

295.05%

297.13%

-0.70%

-2.08%

162.68%

81.37%

380.32%

-22.42%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-25

78.46%

78.09%

0.47%

0.37%

70.75%

10.90%

287.53%

-72.71%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/24

12/19/24

% Change

Change

11/21/24

% Change

12/21/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-25

EUR 44.02

EUR 43.82

0.45%

EUR 0.20

EUR 49.06

-10.29%

EUR 40.41

8.93%

 

 

NBP

Feb-25

GBP 110.07

GBP 109.27

0.73%

GBP 0.80

GBP 122.96

-10.48%

GBP 110.44

-0.34%

 

 

German Base

Feb-25

EUR 104.91

EUR 104.86

0.05%

EUR 0.06

EUR 124.20

-15.53%

EUR 112.59

-6.82%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-25

GBP 91.80

GBP 91.79

0.01%

GBP 0.01

GBP 101.85

-9.86%

GBP 102.47

-10.41%

 

 

French Base

Feb-25

EUR 92.11

EUR 89.60

2.80%

EUR 2.51

EUR 117.21

-21.42%

EUR 116.61

-21.01%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-25

EUR 126.78

EUR 125.76

0.81%

EUR 1.02

EUR 138.36

-8.37%

EUR 125.71

0.85%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-25

$14.74

$14.27

3.35%

$0.48

$15.52

-5.03%

$15.41

-4.35%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/20/24

12/19/24

% Change

Change

11/21/24

% Change

12/21/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-25

$44.02

$43.82

0.45%

$0.20

$49.06

-10.29%

$40.41

8.93%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-25

$110.07

$109.27

0.73%

$0.80

$122.96

-10.48%

$110.44

-0.34%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-25

$104.91

$104.86

0.05%

$0.06

$124.20

-15.53%

$112.59

-6.82%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-25

$91.80

$91.79

0.01%

$0.01

$101.85

-9.86%

$102.47

-10.41%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-25

$92.11

$89.60

2.80%

$2.51

$117.21

-21.42%

$116.61

-21.01%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-25

$126.78

$125.76

0.81%

$1.02

$138.36

-8.37%

$125.71

0.85%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-25

$14.74

$14.27

3.35%

$0.48

$15.52

-5.03%

$15.41

-4.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/21/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

782

73

118

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

9

2

4

2,176

220

129

11.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,827

280

196

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

11

9

11

2,858

411

-80

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,428

185

175

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

906

202

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

3

2

2

1,401

186

97

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/21/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

230

-20

45

1,867

-216

45

-10.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

217

-14

22

1,623

-216

-26

-12.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

225

-38

15

1,775

-298

-53

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

W N Central

247

-41

36

1,882

-379

-5

-17.00%

0.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

98

-32

-25

762

-123

-57

-14.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

119

-47

-37

933

-223

-77

-19.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

70

-51

-26

502

-217

-155

-30.00%

-24.00%

 

 

Mountain

165

-48

4

1,559

-276

2

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

Pacific

97

-33

7

939

-125

77

-12.00%

9.00%

 

 

United States

155

-34

2

1,240

-213

-31

-15.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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