Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Dec-30-2024

Dec 30, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:08 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.948

$3.514

12.35%

$0.434

72,125

 

 

WTI

$70.89

$70.60

0.41%

$0.29

42,143

 

 

Brent

$74.36

$74.17

0.26%

$0.19

707

 

 

ULSD

$2.279

$2.245

1.52%

$0.034

1,418

 

 

RBOB

$1.968

$1.958

0.52%

$0.010

1,398

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.60

$3.57

0.84%

$0.03

Feb-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$16.61

$16.09

3.26%

$0.52

Feb-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Jan-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/27/24

589

0

-33

12/30/23

 

 

Canada

12/27/24

95

-71

9

12/30/23

 

 

International

Nov

919

-31

-59

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/17/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

89,524

89,138

89,077

61

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,405

83,325

82,434

891

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

329,663

317,346

315,738

1,608

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

162,902

138,833

136,490

2,343

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

154,989

147,240

147,842

-602

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,655

31,726

32,166

-440

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

140,649

139,882

140,308

-426

 

 

RBOB

389,438

367,350

368,473

-1,123

 

 

HSC Basis

853,824

842,973

841,779

1,194

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/20/19

 

 

 

12/20/24

12/13/24

Net Change

% Change

12/22/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

792

822

-30

-3.65%

805

-1.61%

787

0.64%

 

 

Midwest

960

1,007

-47

-4.67%

985

-2.54%

940

2.17%

 

 

Mountain

267

274

-7

-2.55%

232

15.09%

192

39.21%

 

 

Pacific

293

296

-3

-1.01%

280

4.64%

246

19.20%

 

 

South

1,217

1,222

-5

-0.41%

1,187

2.53%

1,143

6.46%

 

 

    Salt

349

338

11

3.25%

329

6.08%

324

7.65%

 

 

    Non_Salt

868

884

-16

-1.81%

858

1.17%

819

5.96%

 

 

Total

3,529

3,622

-93

-2.57%

3,490

1.12%

3,308

6.69%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/27/24

12/26/24

% Change

Change

11/27/24

% Change

12/28/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jan-25

$62.58

$63.47

-1.40%

-$0.89

$61.71

1.42%

$60.99

2.61%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jan-25

$47.34

$57.72

-17.98%

-$10.38

$52.37

-9.60%

$82.26

-42.45%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jan-25

$42.19

$45.00

-6.25%

-$2.81

$43.84

-3.76%

$81.78

-48.41%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jan-25

$54.79

$55.49

-1.26%

-$0.70

$54.94

-0.27%

$55.28

-0.88%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jan-25

$121.53

$112.35

8.17%

$9.18

$111.72

8.78%

$120.89

0.53%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jan-25

$56.19

$61.50

-8.63%

-$5.31

$70.60

-20.41%

$107.08

-47.53%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jan-25

$100.81

$93.03

8.36%

$7.78

$86.68

16.30%

$84.01

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/27/24

12/26/24

% Change

Change

11/27/24

% Change

12/28/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-25

$3.383

$3.319

1.93%

$0.06

$3.07

10.23%

$3.68

-8.20%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-25

-$0.002

$0.047

-103.80%

-$0.05

-$0.07

-97.43%

$0.20

-100.91%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-25

$0.670

$0.700

4.48%

-$0.03

$0.74

-9.02%

$0.83

-19.20%

 

 

Waha

Feb-25

-$0.563

-$0.426

-32.10%

-$0.14

-$0.50

13.58%

-$0.10

476.84%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-25

$8.332

$7.819

6.56%

$0.51

$7.19

15.82%

$8.10

2.83%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-25

-$1.789

-$1.698

5.38%

-$0.09

-$1.53

17.07%

-$1.22

47.06%

 

 

Socal

Feb-25

$0.641

$0.636

0.74%

$0.00

$0.91

-29.68%

$2.34

-72.58%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/27/24

12/26/24

% Change

Change

11/27/24

% Change

12/28/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jan-25

$0.771

$0.765

0.81%

$0.01

$0.82

-5.95%

$0.72

6.93%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jan-25

$0.769

$0.780

-1.44%

-$0.01

$0.82

-6.40%

$0.72

6.04%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jan-25

$0.240

$0.238

0.97%

$0.00

$0.22

10.26%

$0.25

-4.63%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.482

$1.471

0.75%

$0.01

$1.43

3.48%

$1.42

4.25%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jan-25

$1.150

$1.154

-0.33%

$0.00

$1.10

4.67%

$0.89

28.72%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jan-25

$6.029

$5.990

0.66%

$0.04

$6.14

-1.80%

$6.07

-0.59%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jan-25

$6.309

$6.291

0.30%

$0.02

$6.23

1.28%

$5.65

11.64%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/27/24

12/26/24

% Change

Change

11/27/24

% Change

12/28/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-25

$70.60

$69.62

1.39%

$0.98

$68.35

3.29%

$69.83

1.10%

 

 

Brent

Feb-25

$74.17

$73.26

1.23%

$0.91

$72.30

2.59%

$74.64

-0.63%

 

 

WCS

Feb-25

-$12.95

-$12.95

0.00%

$0.00

-$12.59

2.89%

-$15.96

-18.85%

 

 

LLS

Feb-25

$71.27

$71.27

0.00%

$0.00

$70.00

1.83%

$73.35

-2.83%

 

 

Mars

Feb-25

$69.18

$69.57

-0.57%

-$0.39

$67.13

3.06%

$69.97

-1.13%

 

 

Sour

Feb-25

$69.66

$70.13

-0.67%

-$0.47

$68.45

1.76%

$70.61

-1.35%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-25

$72.17

$71.26

1.26%

$0.91

$70.30

2.66%

$72.64

-0.65%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/27/24

12/26/24

% Change

Change

11/27/24

% Change

12/28/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jan-25

$2.24

$2.21

1.63%

$0.04

$2.21

1.36%

$2.37

-5.32%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.96

$1.95

0.72%

$0.01

$1.94

1.08%

$1.99

-1.31%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jan-25

$1.86

$1.85

0.76%

$0.01

$1.84

1.14%

$1.89

-1.38%

 

 

GC Jet

Jan-25

$2.14

$2.13

0.47%

$0.01

$2.05

4.58%

$2.18

-1.61%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jan-25

$1.63

$1.64

-0.61%

-$0.01

$1.55

5.48%

$1.59

2.89%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jan-25

$635.96

$626.76

1.47%

$9.20

$625.36

1.69%

$674.82

-5.76%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jan-25

$87.85

$86.93

1.05%

$0.92

$88.04

-0.21%

$93.23

-5.77%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/27/24

12/26/24

% Change

Change

11/27/24

% Change

12/28/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-25

75.42%

87.43%

-13.74%

-12.01%

85.73%

-12.03%

46.50%

62.19%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-25

101.87%

111.64%

-8.75%

-9.77%

101.56%

0.31%

60.31%

68.91%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-25

76.69%

91.81%

-16.47%

-15.12%

90.09%

-14.87%

46.81%

63.83%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-25

76.94%

88.91%

-13.46%

-11.97%

86.29%

-10.84%

43.09%

78.56%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-25

101.55%

96.84%

4.86%

4.71%

90.64%

12.04%

45.95%

121.00%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-25

337.29%

300.55%

12.22%

36.74%

151.48%

122.66%

41.95%

704.03%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-25

69.27%

93.73%

-26.10%

-24.46%

71.40%

-2.98%

23.51%

194.64%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/27/24

12/26/24

% Change

Change

11/27/24

% Change

12/28/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-25

EUR 47.90

EUR 46.02

4.08%

EUR 1.88

EUR 47.02

1.87%

EUR 40.96

16.96%

 

 

NBP

Feb-25

GBP 119.91

GBP 114.47

4.75%

GBP 5.44

GBP 119.21

0.59%

GBP 109.65

9.36%

 

 

German Base

Feb-25

EUR 113.44

EUR 109.16

3.92%

EUR 4.28

EUR 116.99

-3.03%

EUR 113.57

-0.12%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-25

GBP 97.25

GBP 97.25

0.00%

GBP 0.00

GBP 102.45

-5.08%

GBP 103.20

-5.77%

 

 

French Base

Feb-25

EUR 101.02

EUR 97.21

3.92%

EUR 3.81

EUR 112.32

-10.06%

EUR 118.51

-14.76%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-25

EUR 134.91

EUR 131.32

2.74%

EUR 3.60

EUR 133.18

1.30%

EUR 124.91

8.01%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-25

$14.68

$14.39

1.97%

$0.28

$15.21

-3.52%

$15.24

-3.68%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

12/27/24

12/26/24

% Change

Change

11/27/24

% Change

12/28/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-25

$47.90

$46.02

4.08%

$1.88

$47.02

1.87%

$40.96

16.96%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-25

$119.91

$114.47

4.75%

$5.44

$119.21

0.59%

$109.65

9.36%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-25

$113.44

$109.16

3.92%

$4.28

$116.99

-3.03%

$113.57

-0.12%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-25

$97.25

$97.25

0.00%

$0.00

$102.45

-5.08%

$103.20

-5.77%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-25

$101.02

$97.21

3.92%

$3.81

$112.32

-10.06%

$118.51

-14.76%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-25

$134.91

$131.32

2.74%

$3.60

$133.18

1.30%

$124.91

8.01%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-25

$14.68

$14.39

1.97%

$0.28

$15.21

-3.52%

$15.24

-3.68%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/28/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

782

73

118

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

4

-2

-2

2,180

217

127

11.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,827

279

196

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

3

1

-1

2,862

413

-79

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,428

185

175

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

906

202

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

1

0

-1

1,402

186

97

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/28/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

301

38

92

2,168

-178

137

-8.00%

7.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

265

21

73

1,888

-195

47

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

E N Central

212

-65

50

1,986

-364

-3

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W N Central

210

-92

26

2,092

-471

21

-18.00%

1.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

140

3

51

902

-120

-6

-12.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E S Central

136

-40

20

1,069

-263

-57

-20.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

69

-60

-29

571

-277

-184

-33.00%

-24.00%

 

 

Mountain

171

-47

-37

1,730

-323

-35

-16.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Pacific

108

-24

-3

1,047

-149

74

-12.00%

8.00%

 

 

United States

171

-28

29

1,411

-241

-2

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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