Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-01-2024

Feb 1, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:33 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.087

$2.100

-0.62%

-$0.013

30,987

 

 

WTI

$76.44

$75.85

0.78%

$0.59

118,824

 

 

Brent

$81.06

$81.71

-0.80%

-$0.65

11,719

 

 

ULSD

$2.779

$2.808

-1.05%

-$0.030

12,636

 

 

RBOB

$2.227

$2.183

2.02%

$0.044

8,831

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.77

$4.84

-1.45%

-$0.07

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$30.76

$31.34

-1.87%

-$0.59

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/26/24

621

1

-150

01/27/23

 

 

Canada

01/26/24

230

7

-17

01/27/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,675

90,302

90,263

39

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

80,383

79,997

80,148

-151

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

401,989

380,208

391,684

-11,476

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

133,918

112,813

97,548

15,265

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,045

122,334

124,998

-2,664

 

 

NYM Ethanol

44,416

43,573

43,887

-314

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,758

152,126

152,444

-318

 

 

RBOB

368,669

345,194

352,885

-7,691

 

 

HSC Basis

746,854

739,128

738,851

277

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/25/19

 

 

 

1/19/24

1/12/24

Net Change

% Change

1/20/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

657

715

-58

-8.11%

622

5.63%

607

8.17%

 

 

Midwest

788

873

-85

-9.74%

749

5.21%

719

9.54%

 

 

Mountain

194

208

-14

-6.73%

140

38.57%

142

36.62%

 

 

Pacific

228

257

-29

-11.28%

150

52.00%

203

12.43%

 

 

South

990

1,128

-138

-12.23%

1,067

-7.22%

957

3.45%

 

 

    Salt

269

332

-63

-18.98%

310

-13.23%

290

-7.37%

 

 

    Non_Salt

721

796

-75

-9.42%

757

-4.76%

666

8.19%

 

 

Total

2,856

3,182

-326

-10.25%

2,729

4.65%

2,629

8.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/24

1/30/24

% Change

Change

1/2/24

% Change

2/1/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$46.21

$44.74

3.29%

$1.47

$49.38

-6.42%

$78.27

-40.97%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$51.12

$43.87

16.52%

$7.25

$66.66

-23.31%

$65.96

-22.50%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$46.75

$48.73

-4.05%

-$1.98

$50.00

-6.50%

$79.53

-41.21%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$41.11

$39.98

2.82%

$1.13

$41.92

-1.93%

$67.23

-38.85%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$65.27

$66.53

-1.90%

-$1.27

$80.54

-18.97%

$127.28

-48.72%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$85.87

$90.00

-4.59%

-$4.13

$88.90

-3.41%

$108.15

-20.60%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$56.86

$60.09

-5.38%

-$3.23

$66.07

-13.94%

$104.75

-45.72%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/24

1/30/24

% Change

Change

1/2/24

% Change

2/1/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$2.100

$2.077

1.11%

$0.02

$2.39

-11.99%

$3.71

-43.35%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.217

-$0.243

-10.42%

$0.03

-$0.31

-30.50%

-$0.53

-59.22%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

-$0.023

-$0.002

-88.99%

-$0.02

-$0.04

-47.58%

-$0.15

-85.19%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.966

-$0.978

-1.30%

$0.01

-$1.08

-10.68%

-$1.50

-35.50%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$1.706

$1.709

-0.16%

$0.00

$2.16

-20.95%

$4.28

-60.16%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.698

-$0.723

-3.51%

$0.03

-$0.99

-29.71%

-$1.13

-38.24%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.319

$0.359

-11.28%

-$0.04

$0.30

4.87%

$0.62

-48.88%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/24

1/30/24

% Change

Change

1/2/24

% Change

2/1/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.892

$0.860

3.72%

$0.03

$0.69

30.15%

$0.91

-2.34%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.909

$0.885

2.77%

$0.02

$0.69

31.73%

$0.91

0.31%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.203

$0.203

0.00%

$0.00

$0.19

6.55%

$0.25

-19.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.511

$1.545

-2.22%

-$0.03

$1.41

7.14%

$1.54

-1.95%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$1.068

$1.051

1.64%

$0.02

$0.99

7.97%

$1.04

2.63%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.065

$6.100

-0.57%

-$0.04

$6.63

-8.56%

$6.07

-0.15%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$6.060

$5.990

1.17%

$0.07

$6.19

-2.10%

$5.87

3.18%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/24

1/30/24

% Change

Change

1/2/24

% Change

2/1/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$75.85

$77.82

-2.60%

-$1.97

$70.62

7.41%

$73.24

3.56%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$80.71

$82.87

-2.67%

-$2.16

$75.89

6.36%

$78.27

3.12%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$19.26

-$19.22

0.21%

-$0.04

-$19.16

0.49%

-$20.70

-7.00%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$77.93

$80.32

-3.06%

-$2.38

$74.62

4.43%

$77.82

0.15%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$75.83

$77.06

-1.62%

-$1.23

$72.02

5.28%

$70.02

8.30%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$75.87

$78.29

-3.19%

-$2.42

$70.75

7.24%

$69.97

8.43%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$78.71

$80.87

-2.74%

-$2.16

$73.89

6.53%

$75.51

4.24%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/24

1/30/24

% Change

Change

1/2/24

% Change

2/1/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.82

$2.82

0.18%

$0.01

$2.53

11.76%

$2.69

4.83%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.21

$2.26

-2.35%

-$0.05

$2.10

5.25%

$2.22

-0.59%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.11

$2.16

-2.45%

-$0.05

$2.00

5.51%

$2.12

-0.61%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.71

$2.72

-0.26%

-$0.01

$2.36

14.84%

$2.35

15.13%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.65

$1.64

0.49%

$0.01

$1.52

8.20%

$1.97

-16.16%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$800.88

$794.02

0.86%

$6.85

$693.22

15.53%

$700.93

14.26%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$104.20

$104.09

0.10%

$0.10

$97.54

6.82%

$98.59

5.68%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/24

1/30/24

% Change

Change

1/2/24

% Change

2/1/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

60.94%

61.31%

-0.60%

-0.37%

68.95%

-11.62%

62.97%

-3.22%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

89.43%

87.25%

2.50%

2.18%

102.48%

-12.73%

122.85%

-27.20%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

99.68%

102.53%

-2.78%

-2.85%

95.18%

4.73%

83.34%

19.61%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

65.88%

69.91%

-5.76%

-4.03%

73.01%

-9.77%

65.40%

0.73%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

69.91%

70.11%

-0.29%

-0.20%

60.92%

14.76%

40.95%

70.72%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

44.56%

132.46%

-66.36%

-87.90%

59.81%

-25.50%

30.63%

45.48%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

292.36%

365.30%

-19.97%

-72.94%

152.17%

92.13%

55.19%

429.73%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/24

1/30/24

% Change

Change

1/2/24

% Change

2/1/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 30.20

EUR 29.70

1.69%

EUR 0.50

EUR 30.40

-0.66%

EUR 68.39

-55.84%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 74.10

GBP 72.61

2.05%

GBP 1.49

GBP 75.39

-1.70%

GBP 180.97

-59.05%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 69.45

EUR 66.94

3.75%

EUR 2.51

EUR 80.23

-13.44%

EUR 193.31

-64.08%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 67.91

GBP 66.94

1.44%

GBP 0.97

GBP 75.21

-9.70%

GBP 180.77

-62.43%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 67.57

EUR 64.33

5.05%

EUR 3.25

EUR 80.03

-15.56%

EUR 265.78

-74.58%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 93.88

EUR 89.63

4.74%

EUR 4.25

EUR 99.83

-5.96%

EUR 186.41

-49.64%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$10.44

$10.68

-2.25%

-$0.24

$11.18

-6.58%

$21.85

-52.20%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/24

1/30/24

% Change

Change

1/2/24

% Change

2/1/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$30.20

$29.70

1.69%

$0.50

$30.40

-0.66%

$68.39

-55.84%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$74.10

$72.61

2.05%

$1.49

$75.39

-1.70%

$180.97

-59.05%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$69.45

$66.94

3.75%

$2.51

$80.23

-13.44%

$193.31

-64.08%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$67.91

$66.94

1.44%

$0.97

$75.21

-9.70%

$180.77

-62.43%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$67.57

$64.33

5.05%

$3.25

$80.03

-15.56%

$265.78

-74.58%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$93.88

$89.63

4.74%

$4.25

$99.83

-5.96%

$186.41

-49.64%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$10.44

$10.68

-2.25%

-$0.24

$11.18

-6.58%

$21.85

-52.20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

7

-1

0

13

-17

-12

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

0

-7

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

1

-3

1

1

-11

-16

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-6

-4

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

244

-39

18

3,082

-465

87

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

229

-35

21

2,855

-344

41

-11.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

243

-52

-3

3,161

-447

-61

-12.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

259

-53

-25

3,406

-505

-249

-13.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

107

-38

-19

1,496

-148

-29

-9.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E S Central

142

-42

-29

1,971

-157

70

-7.00%

4.00%

 

 

W S Central

118

-14

-25

1,429

3

139

0.00%

11.00%

 

 

Mountain

183

-28

-68

2,715

-266

-263

-9.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Pacific

108

-15

-30

1,541

-207

-225

-12.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

172

-35

-16

2,276

-264

-54

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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