Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-02-2024

Feb 2, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:34 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.066

$2.050

0.78%

$0.016

37,386

 

 

WTI

$72.90

$73.82

-1.25%

-$0.92

141,735

 

 

Brent

$77.92

$81.74

-4.67%

-$3.82

9,309

 

 

ULSD

$2.661

$2.713

-1.93%

-$0.052

15,401

 

 

RBOB

$2.158

$2.195

-1.68%

-$0.037

9,619

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.99

$4.91

1.63%

$0.08

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$30.51

$31.31

-2.55%

-$0.80

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$30.86

$35.66

-13.45%

-$4.80

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/26/24

621

1

-150

01/27/23

 

 

Canada

01/26/24

230

7

-17

01/27/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,675

90,302

90,263

39

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

80,383

79,997

80,148

-151

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

401,989

380,208

391,684

-11,476

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

133,918

112,813

97,548

15,265

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,045

122,334

124,998

-2,664

 

 

NYM Ethanol

44,416

43,573

43,887

-314

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,758

152,126

152,444

-318

 

 

RBOB

368,669

345,194

352,885

-7,691

 

 

HSC Basis

746,854

739,128

738,851

277

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/01/19

 

 

 

1/26/24

1/19/24

Net Change

% Change

1/27/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

605

657

-52

-7.91%

578

4.67%

553

9.32%

 

 

Midwest

727

788

-61

-7.74%

708

2.68%

658

10.49%

 

 

Mountain

185

194

-9

-4.64%

132

40.15%

133

39.31%

 

 

Pacific

223

228

-5

-2.19%

140

59.29%

196

13.89%

 

 

South

919

990

-71

-7.17%

1,025

-10.34%

893

2.91%

 

 

    Salt

248

269

-21

-7.81%

297

-16.50%

266

-6.84%

 

 

    Non_Salt

672

721

-49

-6.80%

728

-7.69%

627

7.21%

 

 

Total

2,659

2,856

-197

-6.90%

2,583

2.94%

2,433

9.30%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/1/24

1/31/24

% Change

Change

1/3/24

% Change

2/2/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$35.30

$40.04

-11.85%

-$4.75

$41.93

-15.81%

$50.54

-30.17%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$37.28

$40.01

-6.82%

-$2.73

$40.29

-7.47%

$41.19

-9.50%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$35.08

$36.75

-4.55%

-$1.67

$41.74

-15.95%

$51.67

-32.11%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$33.09

$37.69

-12.20%

-$4.60

$39.67

-16.58%

$51.32

-35.52%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$48.53

$46.12

5.22%

$2.41

$53.48

-9.26%

$74.63

-34.97%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$66.70

$69.78

-4.41%

-$3.07

$76.28

-12.56%

$67.99

-1.89%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$43.83

$41.51

5.60%

$2.33

$44.29

-1.04%

$57.38

-23.61%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/1/24

1/31/24

% Change

Change

1/3/24

% Change

2/2/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$2.050

$2.100

-2.38%

-$0.05

$2.45

-16.26%

$3.67

-44.19%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.215

-$0.217

-1.24%

$0.00

-$0.31

-31.27%

-$0.47

-54.61%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

-$0.010

-$0.023

124.75%

$0.01

-$0.04

-75.78%

-$0.15

-93.16%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.960

-$0.966

-0.60%

$0.01

-$1.11

-13.17%

-$1.38

-30.27%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$1.705

$1.706

-0.08%

$0.00

$2.14

-20.26%

$4.38

-61.03%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.702

-$0.698

0.66%

$0.00

-$1.02

-30.99%

-$1.14

-38.28%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.220

$0.319

-31.02%

-$0.10

$0.46

-51.78%

$0.65

-66.28%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/1/24

1/31/24

% Change

Change

1/3/24

% Change

2/2/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.881

$0.860

2.51%

$0.02

$0.67

31.27%

$0.83

6.20%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.895

$0.899

-0.38%

$0.00

$0.68

32.55%

$0.86

4.22%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.208

$0.200

3.76%

$0.01

$0.19

6.46%

$0.25

-18.20%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.495

$1.502

-0.47%

-$0.01

$1.46

2.69%

$1.45

3.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$1.014

$1.012

0.22%

$0.00

$0.89

14.22%

$0.94

8.32%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$5.729

$6.000

-4.50%

-$0.27

$6.44

-11.06%

$5.65

1.33%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$5.877

$5.922

-0.75%

-$0.04

$6.02

-2.37%

$5.39

9.00%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/1/24

1/31/24

% Change

Change

1/3/24

% Change

2/2/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$73.82

$75.85

-2.75%

-$2.03

$72.89

1.28%

$73.09

1.00%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$78.86

$80.71

-2.35%

-$1.85

$78.25

0.78%

$78.11

0.96%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$19.00

-$19.26

-1.32%

$0.25

-$17.22

10.39%

-$20.59

-7.72%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$76.17

$77.93

-2.32%

-$1.76

$75.48

0.92%

$74.59

2.11%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$73.97

$75.83

-2.51%

-$1.86

$73.42

0.75%

$68.55

7.91%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$74.41

$75.87

-1.96%

-$1.46

$73.03

1.89%

$68.56

8.54%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$76.86

$78.71

-2.41%

-$1.85

$76.25

0.80%

$74.35

3.38%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/1/24

1/31/24

% Change

Change

1/3/24

% Change

2/2/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.73

$2.76

-1.16%

-$0.03

$2.57

6.32%

$2.63

3.53%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.27

$2.25

0.80%

$0.02

$2.17

4.61%

$2.18

4.18%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.17

$2.15

0.84%

$0.02

$2.07

4.84%

$2.08

4.38%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.54

$2.60

-2.46%

-$0.06

$2.41

5.10%

$2.40

5.84%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.63

$1.66

-1.81%

-$0.03

$1.55

4.69%

$2.00

-18.48%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$761.77

$780.48

-2.40%

-$18.72

$707.85

7.62%

$691.64

10.14%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$102.21

$101.65

0.55%

$0.56

$94.28

8.41%

$93.87

8.88%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/1/24

1/31/24

% Change

Change

1/3/24

% Change

2/2/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

65.83%

60.94%

8.02%

4.89%

66.82%

-1.48%

59.54%

10.56%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

91.50%

89.43%

2.31%

2.07%

103.50%

-11.59%

139.07%

-34.21%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

122.71%

99.68%

23.10%

23.03%

88.76%

38.25%

84.62%

45.01%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

68.02%

65.88%

3.25%

2.14%

70.57%

-3.61%

62.23%

9.30%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

67.75%

69.91%

-3.09%

-2.16%

60.35%

12.26%

41.57%

62.98%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

117.18%

44.56%

162.97%

72.62%

37.52%

212.31%

29.93%

291.51%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

371.88%

292.36%

27.20%

79.52%

157.70%

135.81%

55.52%

569.81%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/1/24

1/31/24

% Change

Change

1/3/24

% Change

2/2/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 28.83

EUR 30.20

-4.52%

-EUR 1.36

EUR 33.08

-12.83%

EUR 66.65

-56.74%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 70.79

GBP 74.10

-4.47%

-GBP 3.31

GBP 81.68

-13.33%

GBP 179.98

-60.67%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 67.55

EUR 69.45

-2.74%

-EUR 1.90

EUR 83.97

-19.56%

EUR 195.48

-65.45%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 64.60

GBP 67.91

-4.88%

-GBP 3.31

GBP 77.13

-16.24%

GBP 184.03

-64.90%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 67.53

EUR 67.57

-0.06%

-EUR 0.04

EUR 83.79

-19.40%

EUR 265.76

-74.59%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 92.53

EUR 93.88

-1.44%

-EUR 1.35

EUR 100.58

-8.00%

EUR 177.92

-47.99%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$9.22

$9.71

-5.02%

-$0.49

$10.99

-16.07%

$20.94

-55.96%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/1/24

1/31/24

% Change

Change

1/3/24

% Change

2/2/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$28.83

$30.20

-4.52%

-$1.36

$33.08

-12.83%

$66.65

-56.74%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$70.79

$74.10

-4.47%

-$3.31

$81.68

-13.33%

$179.98

-60.67%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$67.55

$69.45

-2.74%

-$1.90

$83.97

-19.56%

$195.48

-65.45%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$64.60

$67.91

-4.88%

-$3.31

$77.13

-16.24%

$184.03

-64.90%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$67.53

$67.57

-0.06%

-$0.04

$83.79

-19.40%

$265.76

-74.59%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$92.53

$93.88

-1.44%

-$1.35

$100.58

-8.00%

$177.92

-47.99%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$9.22

$9.71

-5.02%

-$0.49

$10.99

-16.07%

$20.94

-55.96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

7

-1

0

13

-17

-12

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

0

-7

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

1

-3

1

1

-11

-16

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-6

-4

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

244

-39

18

3,082

-465

87

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

229

-35

21

2,855

-344

41

-11.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

243

-52

-3

3,161

-447

-61

-12.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

259

-53

-25

3,406

-505

-249

-13.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

107

-38

-19

1,496

-148

-29

-9.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E S Central

142

-42

-29

1,971

-157

70

-7.00%

4.00%

 

 

W S Central

118

-14

-25

1,429

3

139

0.00%

11.00%

 

 

Mountain

183

-28

-68

2,715

-266

-263

-9.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Pacific

108

-15

-30

1,541

-207

-225

-12.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

172

-35

-16

2,276

-264

-54

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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