Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-03-2025

Feb 3, 2025

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:06 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.308

$3.044

8.67%

$0.264

58,589

 

 

WTI

$74.52

$72.53

2.74%

$1.99

145,627

 

 

Brent

$77.01

$76.76

0.33%

$0.25

18,735

 

 

ULSD

$2.490

$2.484

0.22%

$0.006

24,142

 

 

RBOB

$2.144

$2.036

5.29%

$0.108

25,705

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.38

$3.69

-8.40%

-$0.31

Apr-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$26.29

$24.91

5.52%

$1.37

Mar-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Feb-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/31/25

582

6

-37

02/03/24

 

 

Canada

01/31/25

258

13

26

02/03/24

 

 

International

Dec

909

-10

-46

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/28/2025

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

86,993

86,564

86,461

103

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

77,318

76,881

76,451

430

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

338,359

327,115

327,298

-183

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

330,838

283,295

267,817

15,478

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

179,542

171,988

173,800

-1,812

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,914

39,876

40,550

-674

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,759

150,016

150,521

-505

 

 

RBOB

427,096

401,680

411,061

-9,381

 

 

HSC Basis

903,195

893,910

890,162

3,748

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Brent

$82.00

$81.00

$74.00

$66.00

 

 

Gasoline

$3.50

$3.30

$3.20

$3.00

 

 

Crude Oil Production

$12.90

$13.20

$13.50

$13.60

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

$4.00

 

 

LNG Exports

12.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Natural gas

42.00%

43.00%

41.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

17.00%

16.00%

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

27.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/24/20

 

 

 

1/24/25

1/17/25

Net Change

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

552

613

-61

-9.95%

605

-8.76%

589

-6.25%

 

 

Midwest

661

744

-83

-11.16%

727

-9.08%

706

-6.40%

 

 

Mountain

212

229

-17

-7.42%

185

14.59%

150

41.15%

 

 

Pacific

246

269

-23

-8.55%

223

10.31%

206

19.42%

 

 

South

901

1,037

-136

-13.11%

919

-1.96%

949

-5.08%

 

 

    Salt

229

297

-68

-22.90%

248

-7.66%

271

-15.44%

 

 

    Non_Salt

672

739

-67

-9.07%

672

0.00%

679

-0.97%

 

 

Total

2,571

2,892

-321

-11.10%

2,659

-3.31%

2,600

-1.12%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/25

1/30/25

% Change

Change

1/2/25

% Change

2/1/24

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-25

$44.66

$44.90

-0.55%

-$0.25

$56.37

-20.77%

$57.33

-22.10%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-25

$34.13

$37.11

-8.05%

-$2.99

$58.45

-41.61%

$74.74

-54.34%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-25

$32.72

$34.00

-3.76%

-$1.28

$35.99

-9.09%

$67.05

-51.20%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-25

$41.45

$41.57

-0.30%

-$0.13

$48.13

-13.88%

$51.01

-18.76%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-25

$91.15

$106.63

-14.52%

-$15.48

$104.36

-12.66%

$110.04

-17.17%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-25

$75.93

$73.40

3.46%

$2.54

$57.32

32.48%

$109.34

-30.55%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-25

$79.61

$93.18

-14.56%

-$13.57

$90.43

-11.96%

$97.77

-18.57%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/25

1/30/25

% Change

Change

1/2/25

% Change

2/1/24

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-25

$3.044

$3.047

-0.10%

$0.00

$3.14

-3.15%

$3.22

-5.55%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-25

-$0.370

-$0.382

-3.27%

$0.01

-$0.40

-6.85%

-$0.30

24.19%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-25

-$0.117

-$0.098

-16.10%

-$0.02

-$0.08

48.80%

-$0.05

131.56%

 

 

Waha

Mar-25

-$1.853

-$1.879

-1.38%

$0.03

-$2.01

-7.93%

-$0.79

133.49%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-25

$1.776

$1.728

2.77%

$0.05

$2.41

-26.46%

$2.96

-40.08%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-25

-$1.798

-$1.836

-2.05%

$0.04

-$1.76

1.90%

-$0.97

85.67%

 

 

Socal

Mar-25

-$0.087

-$0.180

-51.50%

$0.09

-$0.39

-77.72%

$0.56

-115.62%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/25

1/30/25

% Change

Change

1/2/25

% Change

2/1/24

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-25

$0.906

$0.891

1.67%

$0.01

$0.85

6.94%

$0.79

15.32%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-25

$0.921

$0.905

1.78%

$0.02

$0.85

8.75%

$0.79

16.50%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-25

$0.234

$0.237

-1.56%

$0.00

$0.27

-14.59%

$0.25

-6.38%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-25

$1.526

$1.520

0.39%

$0.01

$1.54

-0.91%

$1.42

7.68%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-25

$1.127

$1.117

0.88%

$0.01

$1.14

-0.74%

$0.92

22.39%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-25

$6.275

$6.280

-0.08%

$0.00

$6.26

0.24%

$5.73

9.45%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-25

$6.309

$6.318

-0.15%

-$0.01

$6.27

0.62%

$5.50

14.63%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/25

1/30/25

% Change

Change

1/2/25

% Change

2/1/24

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-25

$72.53

$72.73

-0.28%

-$0.20

$72.50

0.04%

$70.08

3.50%

 

 

Brent

Mar-25

$76.05

$76.87

-1.07%

-$0.82

$75.93

0.16%

$74.76

1.73%

 

 

WCS

Mar-25

-$14.00

-$14.00

0.00%

$0.00

-$14.30

-2.09%

-$14.91

-6.10%

 

 

LLS

Mar-25

$74.44

$74.21

0.31%

$0.23

$72.79

2.27%

$72.45

2.75%

 

 

Mars

Mar-25

$72.74

$72.51

0.32%

$0.23

$70.69

2.90%

$68.14

6.75%

 

 

Sour

Mar-25

$72.82

$72.71

0.15%

$0.11

$71.29

2.14%

$70.10

3.87%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-25

$74.05

$74.87

-1.10%

-$0.82

$73.93

0.17%

$72.76

1.78%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/25

1/30/25

% Change

Change

1/2/25

% Change

2/1/24

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-25

$2.50

$2.46

1.75%

$0.04

$2.36

5.89%

$2.46

1.63%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-25

$2.08

$2.07

0.19%

$0.00

$2.05

1.07%

$1.99

4.17%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-25

$1.98

$1.97

0.20%

$0.00

$1.95

1.13%

$1.89

4.39%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-25

$2.30

$2.30

0.00%

$0.00

$2.25

2.36%

$2.24

2.63%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-25

$1.75

$1.75

-0.11%

$0.00

$1.70

2.95%

$1.56

12.15%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-25

$673.89

$666.38

1.13%

$7.51

$663.24

1.61%

$673.84

0.01%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-25

$92.12

$91.39

0.80%

$0.73

$90.70

1.57%

$94.67

-2.69%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/25

1/30/25

% Change

Change

1/2/25

% Change

2/1/24

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-25

56.60%

58.58%

-3.38%

-1.98%

61.89%

-8.55%

47.56%

19.01%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-25

84.60%

81.96%

3.22%

2.64%

107.32%

-21.17%

60.49%

39.86%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-25

166.35%

170.35%

-2.35%

-4.00%

168.48%

-1.26%

52.42%

217.34%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-25

63.11%

65.24%

-3.26%

-2.13%

71.12%

-11.26%

47.72%

32.25%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-25

52.96%

54.80%

-3.36%

-1.84%

61.24%

-13.52%

35.48%

49.27%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-25

362.17%

339.75%

6.60%

22.42%

233.79%

54.91%

15.61%

2220.12%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-25

55.96%

47.76%

17.17%

8.20%

25.27%

121.45%

46.45%

20.47%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/25

1/30/25

% Change

Change

1/2/25

% Change

2/1/24

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-25

EUR 53.66

EUR 51.31

4.57%

EUR 2.35

EUR 49.63

8.12%

EUR 34.64

54.92%

 

 

NBP

Mar-25

GBP 131.54

GBP 126.29

4.16%

GBP 5.25

GBP 122.14

7.69%

GBP 89.17

47.53%

 

 

German Base

Mar-25

EUR 107.15

EUR 101.95

5.10%

EUR 5.20

EUR 95.93

11.69%

EUR 87.00

23.15%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-25

GBP 103.80

GBP 103.97

-0.17%

-GBP 0.17

GBP 96.05

8.07%

GBP 81.13

27.94%

 

 

French Base

Mar-25

EUR 91.61

EUR 84.21

8.79%

EUR 7.40

EUR 83.78

9.36%

EUR 91.55

0.07%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-25

EUR 146.38

EUR 143.48

2.02%

EUR 2.90

EUR 132.92

10.13%

EUR 102.49

42.83%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-25

$14.77

$14.18

4.18%

$0.59

$14.61

1.07%

$12.89

14.59%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/31/25

1/30/25

% Change

Change

1/2/25

% Change

2/1/24

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-25

$53.66

$51.31

4.57%

$2.35

$49.63

8.12%

$34.64

54.92%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-25

$131.54

$126.29

4.16%

$5.25

$122.14

7.69%

$89.17

47.53%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-25

$107.15

$101.95

5.10%

$5.20

$95.93

11.69%

$87.00

23.15%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-25

$103.80

$103.97

-0.17%

-$0.17

$96.05

8.07%

$81.13

27.94%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-25

$91.61

$84.21

8.79%

$7.40

$83.78

9.36%

$91.55

0.07%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-25

$146.38

$143.48

2.02%

$2.90

$132.92

10.13%

$102.49

42.83%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-25

$14.77

$14.18

4.18%

$0.59

$14.61

1.07%

$12.89

14.59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/01/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

4

-4

-1

8

-27

-6

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

0

-8

0

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

1

-3

1

2

-13

1

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-7

-1

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/01/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

272

-10

42

3,542

-206

288

-5.00%

9.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

248

-15

39

3,202

-184

190

-5.00%

6.00%

 

 

E N Central

243

-49

41

3,449

-366

142

-10.00%

4.00%

 

 

W N Central

226

-80

34

3,616

-512

80

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

114

-29

22

1,687

-59

109

-3.00%

7.00%

 

 

E S Central

142

-38

11

2,063

-192

-17

-9.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

92

-35

5

1,289

-227

-199

-15.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Mountain

217

11

63

2,854

-273

37

-9.00%

1.00%

 

 

Pacific

147

27

71

1,679

-155

88

-8.00%

6.00%

 

 

United States

180

-24

37

2,464

-221

82

-8.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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