Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-05-2024

Feb 5, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:01 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.070

$2.079

-0.43%

-$0.009

39,855

 

 

WTI

$71.59

$72.28

-0.95%

-$0.69

147,090

 

 

Brent

$76.76

$77.33

-0.74%

-$0.57

8,565

 

 

ULSD

$2.674

$2.660

0.53%

$0.014

10,940

 

 

RBOB

$2.145

$2.148

-0.12%

-$0.003

7,892

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.13

$5.03

1.99%

$0.10

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.40

$30.80

1.95%

$0.60

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$30.67

$30.85

-0.58%

-$0.18

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/02/24

619

-2

-140

01/27/23

 

 

Canada

02/02/24

232

2

-17

01/27/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/30/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,942

95,571

95,572

-1

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,407

83,041

83,228

-187

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

386,998

366,345

376,111

-9,766

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

140,646

118,876

102,889

15,987

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

130,696

122,201

121,139

1,062

 

 

NYM Ethanol

46,046

45,169

45,576

-407

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

160,547

159,761

160,217

-456

 

 

RBOB

366,102

342,011

351,329

-9,318

 

 

HSC Basis

764,047

756,746

756,300

446

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/01/19

 

 

 

1/26/24

1/19/24

Net Change

% Change

1/27/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

605

657

-52

-7.91%

578

4.67%

553

9.32%

 

 

Midwest

727

788

-61

-7.74%

708

2.68%

658

10.49%

 

 

Mountain

185

194

-9

-4.64%

132

40.15%

133

39.31%

 

 

Pacific

223

228

-5

-2.19%

140

59.29%

196

13.89%

 

 

South

919

990

-71

-7.17%

1,025

-10.34%

893

2.91%

 

 

    Salt

248

269

-21

-7.81%

297

-16.50%

266

-6.84%

 

 

    Non_Salt

672

721

-49

-6.80%

728

-7.69%

627

7.21%

 

 

Total

2,659

2,856

-197

-6.90%

2,583

2.94%

2,433

9.30%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/2/24

2/1/24

% Change

Change

1/4/24

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$35.09

$35.30

-0.58%

-$0.20

$44.78

-21.64%

$49.03

-28.43%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$37.61

$37.28

0.88%

$0.33

$48.57

-22.57%

$41.07

-8.42%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$36.06

$35.08

2.80%

$0.98

$39.00

-7.53%

$50.19

-28.15%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$31.94

$33.09

-3.48%

-$1.15

$42.48

-24.81%

$49.78

-35.83%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$42.46

$48.53

-12.51%

-$6.07

$55.15

-23.01%

$75.84

-44.02%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$62.17

$66.70

-6.79%

-$4.53

$77.72

-20.00%

$66.84

-6.98%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$39.45

$43.83

-10.00%

-$4.38

$46.12

-14.47%

$57.67

-31.59%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/2/24

2/1/24

% Change

Change

1/4/24

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$2.079

$2.050

1.41%

$0.03

$2.56

-18.76%

$3.66

-43.18%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.233

-$0.215

8.29%

-$0.02

-$0.30

-21.48%

-$0.47

-50.92%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

-$0.005

-$0.010

106.12%

$0.01

-$0.01

-62.88%

-$0.16

-96.95%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.930

-$0.960

-3.10%

$0.03

-$1.11

-16.06%

-$1.40

-33.41%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$1.529

$1.705

-10.34%

-$0.18

$2.37

-35.58%

$4.10

-62.67%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.675

-$0.702

-3.87%

$0.03

-$1.00

-32.41%

-$1.11

-39.39%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.205

$0.220

-6.69%

-$0.01

$0.79

-74.20%

$0.53

-61.28%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/2/24

2/1/24

% Change

Change

1/4/24

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.870

$0.881

-1.34%

-$0.01

$0.66

30.81%

$0.82

5.48%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.885

$0.895

-1.20%

-$0.01

$0.67

31.59%

$0.82

7.41%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.205

$0.208

-1.24%

$0.00

$0.20

3.15%

$0.26

-22.50%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.408

$1.495

-5.77%

-$0.09

$1.44

-1.86%

$1.49

-5.32%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$1.005

$1.014

-0.88%

-$0.01

$0.88

14.29%

$0.97

4.00%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$5.733

$5.729

0.06%

$0.00

$6.32

-9.24%

$5.64

1.66%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$5.772

$5.877

-1.79%

-$0.11

$5.92

-2.57%

$5.49

5.12%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/2/24

2/1/24

% Change

Change

1/4/24

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$72.28

$73.82

-2.13%

-$1.54

$72.36

-0.11%

$70.96

1.86%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$77.47

$78.86

-1.79%

-$1.39

$77.59

-0.15%

$75.90

2.08%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$16.95

-$19.00

-12.11%

$2.05

-$17.00

-0.28%

-$20.07

-15.51%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$74.64

$76.17

-2.05%

-$1.53

$74.43

0.28%

$72.89

2.40%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$71.80

$73.97

-3.02%

-$2.17

$72.11

-0.43%

$68.33

5.08%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$72.06

$74.41

-3.26%

-$2.35

$72.78

-0.99%

$71.96

0.14%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$75.47

$76.86

-1.84%

-$1.39

$75.59

-0.15%

$73.49

2.70%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/2/24

2/1/24

% Change

Change

1/4/24

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.66

$2.73

-2.31%

-$0.06

$2.56

4.27%

$2.61

2.23%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.16

$2.27

-4.72%

-$0.11

$2.14

1.12%

$2.18

-0.83%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.06

$2.17

-4.94%

-$0.11

$2.04

1.18%

$2.08

-0.87%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.50

$2.54

-1.38%

-$0.03

$2.39

4.64%

$2.40

4.08%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.60

$1.63

-1.72%

-$0.03

$1.59

0.50%

$2.01

-20.24%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$741.97

$761.77

-2.60%

-$19.80

$703.97

5.40%

$709.98

4.51%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$100.00

$102.21

-2.16%

-$2.21

$97.65

2.40%

$93.37

7.09%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/2/24

2/1/24

% Change

Change

1/4/24

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

62.38%

65.83%

-5.24%

-3.45%

64.38%

-3.11%

61.42%

1.56%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

89.91%

91.50%

-1.74%

-1.59%

95.75%

-6.10%

120.22%

-25.21%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

99.57%

122.71%

-18.86%

-23.14%

98.22%

1.37%

85.27%

16.77%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

68.18%

68.02%

0.24%

0.16%

67.48%

1.04%

63.85%

6.78%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

69.38%

67.75%

2.41%

1.63%

61.71%

12.43%

40.86%

69.80%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

34.24%

117.18%

-70.78%

-82.94%

24.94%

37.29%

26.44%

29.50%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

349.54%

371.88%

-6.01%

-22.34%

162.39%

115.25%

54.73%

538.66%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/2/24

2/1/24

% Change

Change

1/4/24

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 29.50

EUR 28.83

2.31%

EUR 0.67

EUR 33.79

-12.70%

EUR 68.10

-56.68%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 71.94

GBP 70.79

1.62%

GBP 1.15

GBP 84.53

-14.89%

GBP 179.88

-60.01%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 68.92

EUR 67.55

2.03%

EUR 1.37

EUR 84.28

-18.22%

EUR 185.53

-62.85%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 66.88

GBP 64.60

3.52%

GBP 2.28

GBP 79.43

-15.81%

GBP 177.84

-62.40%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 68.48

EUR 67.53

1.40%

EUR 0.94

EUR 83.32

-17.81%

EUR 252.89

-72.92%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 93.48

EUR 92.53

1.02%

EUR 0.95

EUR 102.41

-8.72%

EUR 188.75

-50.48%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$9.50

$9.22

3.06%

$0.28

$11.42

-16.79%

$21.78

-56.36%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/2/24

2/1/24

% Change

Change

1/4/24

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$29.50

$28.83

2.31%

$0.67

$33.79

-12.70%

$68.10

-56.68%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$71.94

$70.79

1.62%

$1.15

$84.53

-14.89%

$179.88

-60.01%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$68.92

$67.55

2.03%

$1.37

$84.28

-18.22%

$185.53

-62.85%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$66.88

$64.60

3.52%

$2.28

$79.43

-15.81%

$177.84

-62.40%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$68.48

$67.53

1.40%

$0.94

$83.32

-17.81%

$252.89

-72.92%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$93.48

$92.53

1.02%

$0.95

$102.41

-8.72%

$188.75

-50.48%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$9.50

$9.22

3.06%

$0.28

$11.42

-16.79%

$21.78

-56.36%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/03/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

2

-5

-9

15

-22

-21

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

0

-8

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

1

-3

1

1

-15

-16

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

0

-2

-2

3

-7

-6

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/03/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

235

-47

-13

3,317

-511

74

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

218

-44

-14

3,073

-388

28

-11.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

206

-84

-111

3,366

-532

-172

-14.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

181

-122

-187

3,587

-626

-437

-15.00%

-11.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

114

-28

7

1,610

-176

-22

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E S Central

143

-35

-26

2,113

-193

43

-8.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

75

-50

-94

1,504

-47

44

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

154

-50

-101

2,870

-315

-364

-10.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

89

-30

-60

1,630

-238

-286

-13.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

150

-52

-60

2,426

-316

-114

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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