Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-09-2024

Feb 9, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.857

$1.917

-3.13%

-$0.060

78,591

 

 

WTI

$76.64

$76.22

0.55%

$0.42

147,458

 

 

Brent

$81.88

$81.63

0.31%

$0.25

14,366

 

 

ULSD

$2.937

$2.891

1.58%

$0.046

27,952

 

 

RBOB

$2.341

$2.342

-0.06%

-$0.001

14,636

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.64

$5.44

3.68%

$0.20

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$35.04

$34.83

0.61%

$0.21

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$28.08

$30.70

-8.53%

-$2.62

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/02/24

619

-2

-140

01/27/23

 

 

Canada

02/02/24

232

2

-17

01/27/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/30/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,942

95,571

95,572

-1

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,407

83,041

83,228

-187

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

386,998

366,345

376,111

-9,766

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

140,646

118,876

102,889

15,987

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

130,696

122,201

121,139

1,062

 

 

NYM Ethanol

46,046

45,169

45,576

-407

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

160,547

159,761

160,217

-456

 

 

RBOB

366,102

342,011

351,329

-9,318

 

 

HSC Basis

764,047

756,746

756,300

446

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/08/19

 

 

 

2/2/24

1/26/24

Net Change

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

568

605

-37

-6.12%

529

7.37%

511

11.11%

 

 

Midwest

689

727

-38

-5.23%

641

7.49%

609

13.14%

 

 

Mountain

183

185

-2

-1.08%

120

52.50%

122

49.51%

 

 

Pacific

228

223

5

2.24%

124

83.87%

184

24.05%

 

 

South

916

919

-3

-0.33%

951

-3.68%

846

8.33%

 

 

    Salt

257

248

9

3.63%

271

-5.17%

251

2.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

659

672

-13

-1.93%

680

-3.09%

594

10.91%

 

 

Total

2,584

2,659

-75

-2.82%

2,366

9.21%

2,272

13.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/8/24

2/7/24

% Change

Change

1/10/24

% Change

2/9/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$32.05

$34.80

-7.90%

-$2.75

$45.27

-29.19%

$48.12

-33.40%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$36.37

$38.21

-4.80%

-$1.83

$46.72

-22.14%

$38.94

-6.59%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$33.29

$34.50

-3.52%

-$1.21

$39.52

-15.77%

$48.18

-30.91%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$30.53

$32.63

-6.45%

-$2.11

$42.67

-28.45%

$48.82

-37.47%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$45.21

$45.25

-0.09%

-$0.04

$58.79

-23.10%

$75.95

-40.47%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$57.50

$60.90

-5.58%

-$3.40

$80.03

-28.15%

$65.13

-11.71%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$39.59

$40.24

-1.61%

-$0.65

$51.02

-22.39%

$57.54

-31.19%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/8/24

2/7/24

% Change

Change

1/10/24

% Change

2/9/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$1.917

$1.967

-2.54%

-$0.05

$2.56

-25.18%

$3.64

-47.29%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.273

-$0.274

-0.44%

$0.00

-$0.22

23.15%

-$0.48

-42.72%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

$0.002

$0.010

308.33%

-$0.01

$0.03

-92.21%

-$0.13

-101.86%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.914

-$0.955

-4.28%

$0.04

-$1.03

-11.09%

-$1.34

-31.81%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$1.591

$1.598

-0.46%

-$0.01

$2.30

-30.86%

$4.06

-60.85%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.565

-$0.597

-5.34%

$0.03

-$0.80

-29.55%

-$1.23

-53.92%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.287

$0.262

9.77%

$0.03

$0.42

-32.00%

$0.28

2.13%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/8/24

2/7/24

% Change

Change

1/10/24

% Change

2/9/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.880

$0.883

-0.30%

$0.00

$0.75

18.01%

$0.84

4.35%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.895

$0.882

1.44%

$0.01

$0.75

18.86%

$0.84

6.87%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.198

$0.192

2.61%

$0.01

$0.22

-10.27%

$0.25

-21.35%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.516

$1.459

3.90%

$0.06

$1.44

5.16%

$1.60

-5.03%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$1.028

$1.014

1.36%

$0.01

$0.87

17.87%

$0.99

3.59%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$5.975

$5.970

0.08%

$0.00

$5.90

1.28%

$5.81

2.79%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$6.128

$6.162

-0.54%

-$0.03

$5.73

6.96%

$5.73

6.98%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/8/24

2/7/24

% Change

Change

1/10/24

% Change

2/9/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$76.19

$73.91

2.99%

$2.28

$71.50

6.56%

$73.85

3.17%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$81.63

$79.21

2.96%

$2.42

$76.45

6.78%

$78.78

3.62%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$17.80

-$18.01

-1.19%

$0.21

-$18.35

-3.02%

-$18.15

-1.96%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$79.05

$76.70

2.97%

$2.35

$75.66

4.48%

$75.11

5.25%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$75.33

$74.18

1.53%

$1.16

$73.18

2.94%

$69.63

8.20%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$76.88

$74.48

3.12%

$2.40

$71.68

7.24%

$71.08

8.15%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$79.63

$77.21

3.04%

$2.42

$74.45

6.96%

$74.59

6.76%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/8/24

2/7/24

% Change

Change

1/10/24

% Change

2/9/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.89

$2.82

2.44%

$0.07

$2.56

13.15%

$2.62

10.47%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.34

$2.25

3.86%

$0.09

$2.09

11.80%

$2.19

7.04%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.24

$2.15

4.04%

$0.09

$1.99

12.39%

$2.09

7.38%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.72

$2.65

2.49%

$0.07

$2.40

13.24%

$2.34

16.09%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.61

$1.60

0.44%

$0.01

$1.63

-1.77%

$2.01

-20.07%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$801.35

$782.47

2.41%

$18.89

$707.57

13.25%

$691.23

15.93%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$103.10

$102.65

0.43%

$0.44

$98.43

4.74%

$96.32

7.04%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/8/24

2/7/24

% Change

Change

1/10/24

% Change

2/9/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

60.80%

60.97%

-0.28%

-0.17%

80.86%

-24.81%

60.46%

0.56%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

82.30%

81.84%

0.56%

0.46%

104.81%

-21.48%

116.61%

-29.42%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

97.49%

101.73%

-4.17%

-4.24%

107.88%

-9.63%

78.11%

24.81%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

63.78%

63.89%

-0.17%

-0.11%

83.59%

-23.70%

65.16%

-2.12%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

63.81%

65.83%

-3.07%

-2.02%

67.22%

-5.07%

42.69%

49.47%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

51.01%

35.85%

42.29%

15.16%

283.08%

-81.98%

29.96%

70.26%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

310.30%

223.08%

39.10%

87.22%

180.44%

71.97%

54.32%

471.24%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/8/24

2/7/24

% Change

Change

1/10/24

% Change

2/9/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 27.72

EUR 28.26

-1.91%

-EUR 0.54

EUR 31.19

-11.12%

EUR 62.75

-55.82%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 67.99

GBP 69.20

-1.75%

-GBP 1.21

GBP 76.80

-11.47%

GBP 162.74

-58.22%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 65.00

EUR 66.93

-2.88%

-EUR 1.93

EUR 75.96

-14.44%

EUR 169.43

-61.64%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 62.49

GBP 63.76

-1.99%

-GBP 1.27

GBP 73.12

-14.54%

GBP 168.99

-63.02%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 62.74

EUR 66.00

-4.93%

-EUR 3.26

EUR 74.37

-15.63%

EUR 248.20

-74.72%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 89.39

EUR 90.61

-1.35%

-EUR 1.22

EUR 96.47

-7.35%

EUR 171.77

-47.96%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$9.25

$9.37

-1.23%

-$0.11

$10.44

-11.34%

$19.82

-53.31%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/8/24

2/7/24

% Change

Change

1/10/24

% Change

2/9/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$27.72

$28.26

-1.91%

-$0.54

$31.19

-11.12%

$62.75

-55.82%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$67.99

$69.20

-1.75%

-$1.21

$76.80

-11.47%

$162.74

-58.22%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$65.00

$66.93

-2.88%

-$1.93

$75.96

-14.44%

$169.43

-61.64%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$62.49

$63.76

-1.99%

-$1.27

$73.12

-14.54%

$168.99

-63.02%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$62.74

$66.00

-4.93%

-$3.26

$74.37

-15.63%

$248.20

-74.72%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$89.39

$90.61

-1.35%

-$1.22

$96.47

-7.35%

$171.77

-47.96%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$9.25

$9.37

-1.23%

-$0.11

$10.44

-11.34%

$19.82

-53.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/03/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

2

-5

-9

15

-22

-21

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

0

-8

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

1

-3

1

1

-15

-16

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

0

-2

-2

3

-7

-6

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/03/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

235

-47

-13

3,317

-511

74

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

218

-44

-14

3,073

-388

28

-11.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

206

-84

-111

3,366

-532

-172

-14.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

181

-122

-187

3,587

-626

-437

-15.00%

-11.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

114

-28

7

1,610

-176

-22

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E S Central

143

-35

-26

2,113

-193

43

-8.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

75

-50

-94

1,504

-47

44

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

154

-50

-101

2,870

-315

-364

-10.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

89

-30

-60

1,630

-238

-286

-13.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

150

-52

-60

2,426

-316

-114

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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