Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-11-2025

Feb 11, 2025

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:06 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.498

$3.444

1.57%

$0.054

20,303

 

 

WTI

$73.33

$72.32

1.40%

$1.01

49,953

 

 

Brent

$76.94

$75.87

1.41%

$1.07

10,149

 

 

ULSD

$2.483

$2.451

1.31%

$0.032

7,039

 

 

RBOB

$2.130

$2.104

1.23%

$0.026

3,077

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.94

$3.86

2.07%

$0.08

Apr-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$27.06

$26.84

0.80%

$0.22

Mar-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.75

$39.26

-1.29%

-$0.51

Mar-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/07/25

586

4

-37

02/10/24

 

 

Canada

02/07/25

249

-9

17

02/10/24

 

 

International

Jan

905

-4

-60

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/4/2025

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

92,680

90,622

91,797

-1,175

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,692

81,483

81,679

-196

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

327,593

316,920

314,165

2,755

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

309,481

264,715

245,109

19,606

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

169,204

160,242

162,601

-2,359

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,657

35,783

36,285

-502

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

155,441

154,807

155,182

-375

 

 

RBOB

414,358

392,988

397,816

-4,828

 

 

HSC Basis

947,035

923,995

930,409

-6,414

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Brent

$82.00

$81.00

$74.00

$66.00

 

 

Gasoline

$3.50

$3.30

$3.20

$3.00

 

 

Crude Oil Production

$12.90

$13.20

$13.50

$13.60

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

$4.00

 

 

LNG Exports

12.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Natural gas

42.00%

43.00%

41.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

17.00%

16.00%

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

27.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/31/20

 

 

 

1/31/25

1/24/25

Net Change

% Change

2/2/24

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

507

552

-45

-8.15%

568

-10.74%

542

-6.42%

 

 

Midwest

605

661

-56

-8.47%

689

-12.19%

655

-7.58%

 

 

Mountain

200

212

-12

-5.66%

183

9.29%

142

40.85%

 

 

Pacific

230

246

-16

-6.50%

228

0.88%

200

15.00%

 

 

South

854

901

-47

-5.22%

916

-6.77%

897

-4.81%

 

 

    Salt

217

229

-12

-5.24%

257

-15.56%

255

-15.04%

 

 

    Non_Salt

638

672

-34

-5.06%

659

-3.19%

642

-0.59%

 

 

Total

2,397

2,571

-174

-6.77%

2,584

-7.24%

2,436

-1.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/10/25

2/7/25

% Change

Change

1/10/25

% Change

2/9/24

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-25

$46.24

$46.63

-0.83%

-$0.39

$44.64

3.60%

$44.79

3.23%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-25

$35.64

$34.67

2.79%

$0.97

$37.66

-5.36%

$39.58

-9.95%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-25

$10.51

$10.55

-0.36%

-$0.04

$15.71

-33.09%

$42.64

-75.35%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-25

$41.45

$41.83

-0.90%

-$0.38

$41.07

0.92%

$44.39

-6.63%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-25

$78.30

$80.01

-2.14%

-$1.71

$66.96

16.94%

$63.89

22.54%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-25

$43.06

$44.67

-3.60%

-$1.61

$37.04

16.26%

$85.24

-49.48%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-25

$66.42

$66.43

-0.02%

-$0.01

$56.75

17.02%

$47.19

40.73%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/10/25

2/7/25

% Change

Change

1/10/25

% Change

2/9/24

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-25

$3.444

$3.309

4.08%

$0.13

$3.40

1.35%

$3.22

6.89%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-25

-$0.547

-$0.505

8.28%

-$0.04

-$0.38

45.05%

-$0.34

63.05%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-25

-$0.066

-$0.085

29.18%

$0.02

-$0.05

24.62%

-$0.04

57.04%

 

 

Waha

Mar-25

-$2.087

-$1.976

-5.61%

-$0.11

-$2.13

-2.01%

-$0.80

160.56%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-25

$4.220

$4.369

-3.41%

-$0.15

$2.23

89.18%

$2.83

49.24%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-25

-$1.926

-$1.893

1.70%

-$0.03

-$1.93

-0.41%

-$0.91

111.06%

 

 

Socal

Mar-25

-$0.207

-$0.165

25.68%

-$0.04

-$0.37

-43.51%

$0.26

-180.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/10/25

2/7/25

% Change

Change

1/10/25

% Change

2/9/24

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-25

$0.890

$0.880

1.12%

$0.01

$0.84

5.93%

$0.74

19.70%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-25

$0.890

$0.880

1.14%

$0.01

$0.84

6.27%

$0.75

18.34%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-25

$0.254

$0.244

4.37%

$0.01

$0.26

-3.12%

$0.24

3.99%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-25

$1.536

$1.520

1.07%

$0.02

$1.56

-1.77%

$1.43

7.77%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-25

$1.034

$1.031

0.26%

$0.00

$1.01

2.13%

$0.90

14.67%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-25

$6.148

$6.105

0.70%

$0.04

$6.12

0.46%

$5.41

13.54%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-25

$6.250

$6.250

0.00%

$0.00

$6.21

0.62%

$5.23

19.55%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/10/25

2/7/25

% Change

Change

1/10/25

% Change

2/9/24

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-25

$72.01

$70.74

1.76%

$1.27

$75.00

-3.99%

$72.00

0.01%

 

 

Brent

Apr-25

$75.87

$74.66

1.59%

$1.21

$78.85

-3.78%

$76.83

-1.25%

 

 

WCS

Apr-25

-$13.40

-$13.80

-2.99%

$0.40

-$14.25

-5.96%

-$13.76

-2.60%

 

 

LLS

Apr-25

$72.82

$72.47

0.48%

$0.35

$74.35

-2.05%

$74.25

-1.93%

 

 

Mars

Apr-25

$71.02

$70.67

0.49%

$0.35

$72.05

-1.42%

$70.56

0.65%

 

 

Sour

Apr-25

$70.79

$70.43

0.52%

$0.37

$72.73

-2.67%

$71.97

-1.63%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-25

$73.87

$72.66

1.64%

$1.21

$76.85

-3.88%

$74.83

-1.28%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/10/25

2/7/25

% Change

Change

1/10/25

% Change

2/9/24

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-25

$2.45

$2.44

0.74%

$0.02

$2.47

-0.81%

$2.53

-2.93%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-25

$2.11

$2.11

-0.05%

$0.00

$2.09

0.91%

$2.07

1.74%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-25

$2.01

$2.01

-0.05%

$0.00

$1.99

0.96%

$1.97

1.83%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-25

$2.30

$2.27

1.41%

$0.03

$2.31

-0.30%

$2.45

-6.09%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-25

$1.77

$1.76

0.85%

$0.01

$1.66

6.75%

$1.59

11.80%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-25

$680.23

$673.25

1.04%

$6.98

$711.28

-4.37%

$728.74

-6.66%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-25

$90.94

$90.46

0.53%

$0.48

$91.08

-0.16%

$96.96

-6.21%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/10/25

2/7/25

% Change

Change

1/10/25

% Change

2/9/24

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-25

59.09%

65.75%

-10.13%

-6.66%

59.28%

-0.32%

49.07%

20.42%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-25

105.59%

114.60%

-7.86%

-9.01%

99.80%

5.80%

66.34%

59.16%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-25

145.77%

158.12%

-7.81%

-12.35%

172.05%

-15.27%

53.84%

170.75%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-25

62.05%

72.65%

-14.59%

-10.60%

70.17%

-11.57%

50.91%

21.88%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-25

56.86%

53.51%

6.26%

3.35%

58.16%

-2.24%

36.05%

57.73%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-25

541.60%

509.11%

6.38%

32.49%

249.57%

117.01%

17.41%

3010.86%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-25

97.99%

76.34%

28.36%

21.65%

23.53%

316.45%

30.58%

220.44%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/10/25

2/7/25

% Change

Change

1/10/25

% Change

2/9/24

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-25

EUR 58.24

EUR 55.98

4.04%

EUR 2.26

EUR 45.50

28.01%

EUR 31.08

87.41%

 

 

NBP

Mar-25

GBP 141.77

GBP 136.16

4.12%

GBP 5.61

GBP 112.76

25.73%

GBP 79.90

77.43%

 

 

German Base

Mar-25

EUR 110.85

EUR 108.37

2.28%

EUR 2.48

EUR 87.36

26.88%

EUR 79.04

40.25%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-25

GBP 117.17

GBP 109.30

7.20%

GBP 7.87

GBP 88.90

31.80%

GBP 73.48

59.46%

 

 

French Base

Mar-25

EUR 98.89

EUR 91.57

7.99%

EUR 7.32

EUR 73.97

33.69%

EUR 84.32

17.29%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-25

EUR 153.63

EUR 149.22

2.95%

EUR 4.41

EUR 125.47

22.45%

EUR 94.60

62.40%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-25

$15.80

$14.96

5.59%

$0.84

$13.32

18.64%

$11.38

38.89%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/10/25

2/7/25

% Change

Change

1/10/25

% Change

2/9/24

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-25

$58.24

$55.98

4.04%

$2.26

$45.50

28.01%

$31.08

87.41%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-25

$141.77

$136.16

4.12%

$5.61

$112.76

25.73%

$79.90

77.43%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-25

$110.85

$108.37

2.28%

$2.48

$87.36

26.88%

$79.04

40.25%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-25

$117.17

$109.30

7.20%

$7.87

$88.90

31.80%

$73.48

59.46%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-25

$98.89

$91.57

7.99%

$7.32

$73.97

33.69%

$84.32

17.29%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-25

$153.63

$149.22

2.95%

$4.41

$125.47

22.45%

$94.60

62.40%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-25

$15.80

$14.96

5.59%

$0.84

$13.32

18.64%

$11.38

38.89%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/08/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

10

3

8

18

-24

2

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

1

1

1

1

-7

1

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

19

15

19

21

3

20

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

1

0

1

1

-1

1

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

3

4

6

-5

3

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/08/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

291

13

58

3,833

-194

346

-5.00%

10.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

250

-9

31

3,452

-193

221

-5.00%

7.00%

 

 

E N Central

248

-36

49

3,697

-402

191

-10.00%

5.00%

 

 

W N Central

263

-30

93

3,880

-541

173

-12.00%

5.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

84

-54

-36

1,771

-114

73

-6.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

71

-101

-48

2,135

-293

-65

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

W S Central

38

-81

-31

1,327

-308

-231

-19.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Mountain

148

-50

-37

3,002

-324

-1

-10.00%

0.00%

 

 

Pacific

125

9

-17

1,804

-146

71

-7.00%

4.00%

 

 

United States

161

-36

4

2,625

-257

86

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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