Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-12-2024

Feb 12, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:18 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.834

$1.847

-0.70%

-$0.013

42,296

 

 

WTI

$76.22

$76.84

-0.81%

-$0.62

69,262

 

 

Brent

$81.44

$82.19

-0.91%

-$0.75

7,995

 

 

ULSD

$2.916

$2.964

-1.64%

-$0.049

12,713

 

 

RBOB

$2.347

$2.339

0.33%

$0.008

5,201

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.27

$5.42

-2.77%

-$0.15

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$35.67

$35.35

0.91%

$0.32

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$27.11

$28.10

-3.53%

-$0.99

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/09/24

623

4

-138

02/10/23

 

 

Canada

02/09/24

232

0

-18

02/10/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/6/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,524

94,586

95,225

-639

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,302

82,992

82,990

2

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

387,181

366,528

376,294

-9,766

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

292,856

247,575

212,857

34,718

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

115,156

105,923

105,899

24

 

 

NYM Ethanol

44,776

43,981

44,419

-438

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,907

150,075

150,643

-568

 

 

RBOB

377,032

352,552

359,527

-6,975

 

 

HSC Basis

734,074

726,569

727,095

-526

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/08/19

 

 

 

2/2/24

1/26/24

Net Change

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

568

605

-37

-6.12%

529

7.37%

511

11.11%

 

 

Midwest

689

727

-38

-5.23%

641

7.49%

609

13.14%

 

 

Mountain

183

185

-2

-1.08%

120

52.50%

122

49.51%

 

 

Pacific

228

223

5

2.24%

124

83.87%

184

24.05%

 

 

South

916

919

-3

-0.33%

951

-3.68%

846

8.33%

 

 

    Salt

257

248

9

3.63%

271

-5.17%

251

2.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

659

672

-13

-1.93%

680

-3.09%

594

10.91%

 

 

Total

2,584

2,659

-75

-2.82%

2,366

9.21%

2,272

13.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/9/24

2/8/24

% Change

Change

1/11/24

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$31.04

$32.05

-3.15%

-$1.01

$45.44

-31.69%

$49.04

-36.70%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$35.02

$36.37

-3.72%

-$1.35

$47.97

-27.00%

$39.96

-12.36%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$32.96

$33.29

-0.98%

-$0.33

$36.50

-9.69%

$49.61

-33.56%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$29.94

$30.53

-1.94%

-$0.59

$43.75

-31.57%

$49.76

-39.83%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$43.00

$45.21

-4.89%

-$2.21

$60.52

-28.95%

$77.58

-44.57%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$57.31

$57.50

-0.33%

-$0.19

$78.77

-27.24%

$64.36

-10.95%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$38.16

$39.59

-3.62%

-$1.43

$52.79

-27.71%

$58.69

-34.98%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/9/24

2/8/24

% Change

Change

1/11/24

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$1.847

$1.917

-3.65%

-$0.07

$2.54

-27.28%

$3.67

-49.69%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.231

-$0.273

-15.28%

$0.04

-$0.24

-2.98%

-$0.46

-50.00%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

$0.002

$0.002

0.00%

$0.00

$0.04

-94.07%

-$0.11

-102.16%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.850

-$0.914

-6.94%

$0.06

-$1.05

-19.23%

-$1.33

-36.02%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$1.556

$1.591

-2.20%

-$0.03

$2.46

-36.75%

$4.12

-62.26%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.549

-$0.565

-2.85%

$0.02

-$0.91

-39.38%

-$1.27

-56.68%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.284

$0.287

-1.15%

$0.00

$0.32

-10.12%

$0.34

-16.75%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/9/24

2/8/24

% Change

Change

1/11/24

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.890

$0.880

1.14%

$0.01

$0.76

17.45%

$0.85

5.06%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.900

$0.895

0.56%

$0.00

$0.76

18.12%

$0.84

7.39%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.195

$0.198

-1.27%

$0.00

$0.23

-13.74%

$0.25

-20.41%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.535

$1.516

1.29%

$0.02

$1.47

4.21%

$1.57

-2.28%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$1.054

$1.028

2.54%

$0.03

$0.90

16.92%

$0.99

6.29%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$5.945

$5.975

-0.50%

-$0.03

$5.92

0.43%

$5.86

1.46%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$6.200

$6.128

1.17%

$0.07

$5.68

9.15%

$5.64

9.97%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/9/24

2/8/24

% Change

Change

1/11/24

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$76.77

$76.19

0.76%

$0.58

$72.17

6.37%

$75.05

2.29%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$82.19

$81.63

0.68%

$0.56

$77.11

6.59%

$80.19

2.49%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$17.49

-$17.80

-1.74%

$0.31

-$18.30

-4.39%

-$16.84

3.85%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$78.93

$79.05

-0.15%

-$0.12

$75.40

4.68%

$76.33

3.41%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$76.35

$75.33

1.33%

$1.01

$72.81

4.86%

$72.53

5.27%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$77.54

$76.88

0.86%

$0.67

$72.60

6.81%

$73.53

5.46%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$80.19

$79.63

0.70%

$0.56

$75.11

6.76%

$77.51

3.46%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/9/24

2/8/24

% Change

Change

1/11/24

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.94

$2.89

1.69%

$0.05

$2.62

12.29%

$2.66

10.52%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.33

$2.34

-0.34%

-$0.01

$2.34

-0.47%

$2.22

4.86%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.23

$2.24

-0.36%

-$0.01

$2.24

-0.49%

$2.12

5.08%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.82

$2.72

3.75%

$0.10

$2.50

12.70%

$2.42

16.80%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.62

$1.61

0.62%

$0.01

$1.61

0.62%

$2.03

-20.33%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$822.18

$801.35

2.60%

$20.83

$718.16

14.48%

$716.52

14.75%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$106.10

$103.10

2.91%

$3.00

$96.42

10.04%

$95.43

11.18%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/9/24

2/8/24

% Change

Change

1/11/24

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

67.65%

60.80%

11.27%

6.85%

67.85%

-0.29%

60.97%

10.96%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

83.51%

82.30%

1.47%

1.21%

90.67%

-7.90%

115.83%

-27.90%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

107.17%

97.49%

9.93%

9.68%

94.38%

13.55%

81.87%

30.90%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

70.15%

63.78%

9.99%

6.37%

72.48%

-3.21%

65.80%

6.61%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

65.77%

63.81%

3.07%

1.96%

69.42%

-5.26%

40.58%

62.07%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

51.13%

51.01%

0.24%

0.12%

132.71%

-61.47%

26.76%

91.07%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

215.02%

310.30%

-30.71%

-95.28%

245.72%

-12.49%

54.34%

295.69%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/9/24

2/8/24

% Change

Change

1/11/24

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 26.80

EUR 27.72

-3.32%

-EUR 0.92

EUR 30.86

-13.15%

EUR 62.47

-57.10%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 65.60

GBP 67.99

-3.52%

-GBP 2.39

GBP 75.75

-13.39%

GBP 163.14

-59.79%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 62.32

EUR 65.00

-4.12%

-EUR 2.68

EUR 75.13

-17.05%

EUR 169.92

-63.32%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 60.83

GBP 62.49

-2.66%

-GBP 1.66

GBP 71.28

-14.66%

GBP 170.92

-64.41%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 59.03

EUR 62.74

-5.91%

-EUR 3.71

EUR 72.80

-18.91%

EUR 251.98

-76.57%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 86.90

EUR 89.39

-2.78%

-EUR 2.48

EUR 94.69

-8.22%

EUR 171.96

-49.46%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$9.18

$9.25

-0.82%

-$0.08

$10.49

-12.48%

$16.29

-43.66%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/9/24

2/8/24

% Change

Change

1/11/24

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$26.80

$27.72

-3.32%

-$0.92

$30.86

-13.15%

$62.47

-57.10%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$65.60

$67.99

-3.52%

-$2.39

$75.75

-13.39%

$163.14

-59.79%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$62.32

$65.00

-4.12%

-$2.68

$75.13

-17.05%

$169.92

-63.32%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$60.83

$62.49

-2.66%

-$1.66

$71.28

-14.66%

$170.92

-64.41%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$59.03

$62.74

-5.91%

-$3.71

$72.80

-18.91%

$251.98

-76.57%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$86.90

$89.39

-2.78%

-$2.48

$94.69

-8.22%

$171.96

-49.46%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$9.18

$9.25

-0.82%

-$0.08

$10.49

-12.48%

$16.29

-43.66%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/10/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

3

-4

-5

18

-26

-26

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

-8

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

3

-1

2

4

-15

-14

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

0

-1

4

-7

-6

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/10/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

223

-54

-32

3,541

-564

42

-14.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

208

-49

-11

3,281

-437

16

-12.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

183

-98

-37

3,550

-629

-209

-15.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

176

-113

-64

3,764

-738

-500

-16.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

111

-26

14

1,721

-202

-8

-11.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

106

-63

-9

2,220

-255

34

-10.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

65

-51

-27

1,569

-98

18

-6.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

197

1

-6

3,067

-314

-369

-9.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

145

30

32

1,775

-208

-254

-10.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

152

-42

-10

2,578

-358

-124

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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