Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-12-2025

Feb 12, 2025

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:06 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.517

$3.519

-0.06%

-$0.002

19,638

 

 

WTI

$72.48

$73.32

-1.15%

-$0.84

62,425

 

 

Brent

$76.28

$77.00

-0.94%

-$0.72

11,002

 

 

ULSD

$2.512

$2.515

-0.11%

-$0.003

5,355

 

 

RBOB

$2.141

$2.147

-0.29%

-$0.006

4,373

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.95

$3.92

0.77%

$0.03

Apr-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$28.10

$27.65

1.65%

$0.46

Mar-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$40.11

$38.71

3.62%

$1.40

Mar-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/07/25

586

4

-37

02/10/24

 

 

Canada

02/07/25

249

-9

17

02/10/24

 

 

International

Jan

905

-4

-60

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/4/2025

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

92,680

90,622

91,797

-1,175

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,692

81,483

81,679

-196

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

327,593

316,920

314,165

2,755

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

309,481

264,715

245,109

19,606

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

169,204

160,242

162,601

-2,359

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,657

35,783

36,285

-502

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

155,441

154,807

155,182

-375

 

 

RBOB

414,358

392,988

397,816

-4,828

 

 

HSC Basis

947,035

923,995

930,409

-6,414

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Brent

$82.00

$81.00

$74.00

$66.00

 

 

Gasoline

$3.50

$3.30

$3.20

$3.00

 

 

Crude Oil Production

$12.90

$13.20

$13.50

$13.60

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

$4.00

 

 

LNG Exports

12.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Natural gas

42.00%

43.00%

41.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

17.00%

16.00%

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

27.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/31/20

 

 

 

1/31/25

1/24/25

Net Change

% Change

2/2/24

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

507

552

-45

-8.15%

568

-10.74%

542

-6.42%

 

 

Midwest

605

661

-56

-8.47%

689

-12.19%

655

-7.58%

 

 

Mountain

200

212

-12

-5.66%

183

9.29%

142

40.85%

 

 

Pacific

230

246

-16

-6.50%

228

0.88%

200

15.00%

 

 

South

854

901

-47

-5.22%

916

-6.77%

897

-4.81%

 

 

    Salt

217

229

-12

-5.24%

257

-15.56%

255

-15.04%

 

 

    Non_Salt

638

672

-34

-5.06%

659

-3.19%

642

-0.59%

 

 

Total

2,397

2,571

-174

-6.77%

2,584

-7.24%

2,436

-1.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/11/25

2/10/25

% Change

Change

1/13/25

% Change

2/12/24

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-25

$47.62

$46.24

2.99%

$1.38

$44.19

7.77%

$44.69

6.57%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-25

$39.05

$35.64

9.58%

$3.41

$38.93

0.32%

$39.34

-0.74%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-25

$10.01

$10.51

-4.74%

-$0.50

$16.63

-39.80%

$42.62

-76.50%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-25

$42.74

$41.45

3.11%

$1.29

$40.76

4.85%

$44.39

-3.71%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-25

$84.84

$78.30

8.35%

$6.54

$66.39

27.78%

$60.58

40.05%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-25

$43.00

$43.06

-0.15%

-$0.06

$38.94

10.44%

$84.79

-49.28%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-25

$71.46

$66.42

7.60%

$5.05

$56.76

25.91%

$44.53

60.48%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/11/25

2/10/25

% Change

Change

1/13/25

% Change

2/12/24

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-25

$3.519

$3.444

2.18%

$0.08

$3.43

2.68%

$3.22

9.39%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-25

-$0.591

-$0.547

8.10%

-$0.04

-$0.35

70.17%

-$0.33

78.17%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-25

-$0.079

-$0.066

-16.28%

-$0.01

-$0.01

1147.62%

-$0.04

78.64%

 

 

Waha

Mar-25

-$1.954

-$2.087

-6.36%

$0.13

-$2.03

-3.73%

-$0.80

144.81%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-25

$4.527

$4.220

7.25%

$0.31

$2.11

114.92%

$2.78

62.78%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-25

-$2.054

-$1.926

6.66%

-$0.13

-$1.88

9.09%

-$0.90

129.30%

 

 

Socal

Mar-25

-$0.355

-$0.207

71.13%

-$0.15

-$0.25

40.47%

$0.27

-232.06%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/11/25

2/10/25

% Change

Change

1/13/25

% Change

2/12/24

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-25

$0.896

$0.890

0.70%

$0.01

$0.86

4.47%

$0.76

18.67%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-25

$0.902

$0.890

1.27%

$0.01

$0.86

4.36%

$0.75

20.02%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-25

$0.255

$0.254

0.23%

$0.00

$0.27

-3.80%

$0.24

7.37%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-25

$1.556

$1.536

1.30%

$0.02

$1.58

-1.53%

$1.42

9.83%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-25

$1.046

$1.034

1.20%

$0.01

$1.04

0.71%

$0.89

17.33%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-25

$6.139

$6.148

-0.14%

-$0.01

$6.13

0.14%

$5.57

10.24%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-25

$6.149

$6.250

-1.61%

-$0.10

$6.24

-1.46%

$5.42

13.46%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/11/25

2/10/25

% Change

Change

1/13/25

% Change

2/12/24

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-25

$73.08

$72.01

1.46%

$1.07

$75.90

-3.72%

$72.10

1.36%

 

 

Brent

Apr-25

$77.00

$75.87

1.47%

$1.13

$79.65

-3.33%

$76.87

0.17%

 

 

WCS

Apr-25

-$13.45

-$13.40

0.37%

-$0.05

-$14.05

-4.27%

-$13.59

-1.01%

 

 

LLS

Apr-25

$74.04

$72.82

1.65%

$1.22

$76.50

-3.22%

$74.03

0.02%

 

 

Mars

Apr-25

$72.54

$71.02

2.09%

$1.52

$74.25

-2.31%

$70.78

2.49%

 

 

Sour

Apr-25

$72.06

$70.79

1.75%

$1.26

$75.00

-3.93%

$71.33

1.02%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-25

$75.00

$73.87

1.51%

$1.13

$77.65

-3.41%

$74.87

0.17%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/11/25

2/10/25

% Change

Change

1/13/25

% Change

2/12/24

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-25

$2.46

$2.45

0.45%

$0.01

$2.51

-1.75%

$2.51

-1.95%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-25

$2.37

$2.11

12.73%

$0.27

$2.14

10.99%

$2.08

14.08%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-25

$2.27

$2.01

13.36%

$0.27

$2.04

11.53%

$1.98

14.79%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-25

$2.34

$2.30

1.83%

$0.04

$2.32

0.86%

$2.37

-1.10%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-25

$1.76

$1.77

-0.68%

-$0.01

$1.76

0.17%

$1.58

11.68%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-25

$690.43

$680.23

1.50%

$10.19

$697.87

-1.07%

$717.83

-3.82%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-25

$92.89

$90.94

2.14%

$1.95

$96.60

-3.84%

$94.72

-1.93%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/11/25

2/10/25

% Change

Change

1/13/25

% Change

2/12/24

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-25

59.23%

59.09%

0.24%

0.14%

69.29%

-14.52%

48.02%

23.34%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-25

96.23%

105.59%

-8.86%

-9.36%

123.12%

-21.84%

67.29%

43.01%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-25

167.05%

145.77%

14.60%

21.28%

152.32%

9.67%

52.11%

220.57%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-25

61.64%

62.05%

-0.66%

-0.41%

79.87%

-22.82%

49.63%

24.20%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-25

54.53%

56.86%

-4.10%

-2.33%

57.29%

-4.82%

36.13%

50.93%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-25

567.24%

541.60%

4.73%

25.64%

244.32%

132.17%

17.41%

3158.13%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-25

53.38%

97.99%

-45.53%

-44.61%

28.95%

84.39%

31.56%

69.14%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/11/25

2/10/25

% Change

Change

1/13/25

% Change

2/12/24

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-25

EUR 56.41

EUR 58.24

-3.14%

-EUR 1.83

EUR 48.24

16.94%

EUR 30.86

82.81%

 

 

NBP

Mar-25

GBP 137.40

GBP 141.77

-3.08%

-GBP 4.37

GBP 120.01

14.50%

GBP 79.17

73.55%

 

 

German Base

Mar-25

EUR 107.55

EUR 110.85

-2.98%

-EUR 3.30

EUR 93.46

15.08%

EUR 77.37

39.00%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-25

GBP 112.50

GBP 117.17

-3.99%

-GBP 4.67

GBP 94.10

19.56%

GBP 72.84

54.45%

 

 

French Base

Mar-25

EUR 96.85

EUR 98.89

-2.06%

-EUR 2.04

EUR 81.92

18.23%

EUR 81.28

19.16%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-25

EUR 155.02

EUR 153.63

0.91%

EUR 1.39

EUR 130.43

18.86%

EUR 92.70

67.23%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-25

$15.40

$15.80

-2.54%

-$0.40

$14.40

6.92%

$10.83

42.22%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/11/25

2/10/25

% Change

Change

1/13/25

% Change

2/12/24

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-25

$56.41

$58.24

-3.14%

-$1.83

$48.24

16.94%

$30.86

82.81%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-25

$137.40

$141.77

-3.08%

-$4.37

$120.01

14.50%

$79.17

73.55%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-25

$107.55

$110.85

-2.98%

-$3.30

$93.46

15.08%

$77.37

39.00%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-25

$112.50

$117.17

-3.99%

-$4.67

$94.10

19.56%

$72.84

54.45%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-25

$96.85

$98.89

-2.06%

-$2.04

$81.92

18.23%

$81.28

19.16%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-25

$155.02

$153.63

0.91%

$1.39

$130.43

18.86%

$92.70

67.23%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-25

$15.40

$15.80

-2.54%

-$0.40

$14.40

6.92%

$10.83

42.22%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/08/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

10

3

8

18

-24

2

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

1

1

1

1

-7

1

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

19

15

19

21

3

20

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

1

0

1

1

-1

1

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

3

4

6

-5

3

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/08/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

291

13

58

3,833

-194

346

-5.00%

10.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

250

-9

31

3,452

-193

221

-5.00%

7.00%

 

 

E N Central

248

-36

49

3,697

-402

191

-10.00%

5.00%

 

 

W N Central

263

-30

93

3,880

-541

173

-12.00%

5.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

84

-54

-36

1,771

-114

73

-6.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

71

-101

-48

2,135

-293

-65

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

W S Central

38

-81

-31

1,327

-308

-231

-19.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Mountain

148

-50

-37

3,002

-324

-1

-10.00%

0.00%

 

 

Pacific

125

9

-17

1,804

-146

71

-7.00%

4.00%

 

 

United States

161

-36

4

2,625

-257

86

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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