Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-13-2024

Feb 13, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.760

$1.768

-0.45%

-$0.008

25,109

 

 

WTI

$77.58

$76.92

0.86%

$0.66

72,317

 

 

Brent

$82.60

$82.00

0.73%

$0.60

6,704

 

 

ULSD

$2.926

$2.920

0.23%

$0.007

9,125

 

 

RBOB

$2.373

$2.367

0.24%

$0.006

3,685

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.19

$5.18

0.19%

$0.01

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$35.30

$35.46

-0.46%

-$0.16

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$25.76

$27.26

-5.51%

-$1.50

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/09/24

623

4

-138

02/10/23

 

 

Canada

02/09/24

232

0

-18

02/10/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/6/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,524

94,586

95,225

-639

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,302

82,992

82,990

2

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

387,181

366,528

376,294

-9,766

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

292,856

247,575

212,857

34,718

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

115,156

105,923

105,899

24

 

 

NYM Ethanol

44,776

43,981

44,419

-438

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,907

150,075

150,643

-568

 

 

RBOB

377,032

352,552

359,527

-6,975

 

 

HSC Basis

734,074

726,569

727,095

-526

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/08/19

 

 

 

2/2/24

1/26/24

Net Change

% Change

2/3/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

568

605

-37

-6.12%

529

7.37%

511

11.11%

 

 

Midwest

689

727

-38

-5.23%

641

7.49%

609

13.14%

 

 

Mountain

183

185

-2

-1.08%

120

52.50%

122

49.51%

 

 

Pacific

228

223

5

2.24%

124

83.87%

184

24.05%

 

 

South

916

919

-3

-0.33%

951

-3.68%

846

8.33%

 

 

    Salt

257

248

9

3.63%

271

-5.17%

251

2.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

659

672

-13

-1.93%

680

-3.09%

594

10.91%

 

 

Total

2,584

2,659

-75

-2.82%

2,366

9.21%

2,272

13.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/12/24

2/9/24

% Change

Change

1/12/24

% Change

2/13/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$29.52

$31.04

-4.90%

-$1.52

$44.92

-34.27%

$48.36

-38.95%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$33.27

$35.02

-4.98%

-$1.75

$45.14

-26.29%

$39.53

-15.82%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$32.59

$32.96

-1.12%

-$0.37

$35.84

-9.06%

$49.65

-34.36%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$28.44

$29.94

-5.00%

-$1.50

$43.25

-34.24%

$49.06

-42.03%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$39.80

$43.00

-7.44%

-$3.20

$57.22

-30.44%

$75.91

-47.57%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$58.37

$57.31

1.85%

$1.06

$77.00

-24.20%

$66.39

-12.08%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$34.86

$38.16

-8.66%

-$3.30

$50.56

-31.06%

$57.45

-39.33%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/12/24

2/9/24

% Change

Change

1/12/24

% Change

2/13/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$1.768

$1.847

-4.28%

-$0.08

$2.62

-32.44%

$3.63

-51.31%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.232

-$0.231

0.39%

$0.00

-$0.25

-7.31%

-$0.44

-47.19%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

$0.005

$0.002

-50.00%

$0.00

$0.07

-93.08%

-$0.12

-103.98%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.818

-$0.850

-3.75%

$0.03

-$1.09

-24.86%

-$1.19

-31.43%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$1.340

$1.556

-13.88%

-$0.22

$2.60

-48.53%

$4.01

-66.55%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.502

-$0.549

-8.50%

$0.05

-$0.99

-49.00%

-$1.26

-60.08%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.304

$0.284

6.93%

$0.02

$0.36

-14.49%

$0.30

0.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/12/24

2/9/24

% Change

Change

1/12/24

% Change

2/13/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.910

$0.890

2.24%

$0.02

$0.78

16.82%

$0.83

9.71%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.910

$0.900

1.10%

$0.01

$0.78

17.07%

$0.82

11.10%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.191

$0.195

-1.91%

$0.00

$0.23

-17.26%

$0.25

-21.93%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.550

$1.535

0.96%

$0.01

$1.47

5.26%

$1.57

-1.12%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$1.078

$1.054

2.26%

$0.02

$0.91

18.24%

$0.97

11.39%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$6.060

$5.945

1.94%

$0.12

$6.00

0.98%

$5.74

5.51%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$6.230

$6.200

0.48%

$0.03

$5.79

7.68%

$5.58

11.74%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/12/24

2/9/24

% Change

Change

1/12/24

% Change

2/13/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$76.82

$76.77

0.07%

$0.05

$72.88

5.41%

$75.58

1.64%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$82.00

$82.19

-0.23%

-$0.19

$77.97

5.17%

$80.60

1.74%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$17.24

-$17.49

-1.46%

$0.25

-$18.28

-5.70%

-$18.02

-4.31%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$79.21

$78.93

0.35%

$0.28

$77.43

2.29%

$76.19

3.96%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$76.96

$76.35

0.79%

$0.61

$74.64

3.11%

$71.86

7.09%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$77.23

$77.54

-0.40%

-$0.31

$73.20

5.51%

$71.74

7.65%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$80.00

$80.19

-0.24%

-$0.19

$75.97

5.30%

$77.04

3.84%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/12/24

2/9/24

% Change

Change

1/12/24

% Change

2/13/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.93

$2.94

-0.27%

-$0.01

$2.62

11.90%

$2.67

9.64%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.37

$2.33

1.54%

$0.04

$2.18

8.42%

$2.20

7.73%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.27

$2.23

1.61%

$0.04

$2.08

8.83%

$2.10

8.10%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.78

$2.82

-1.42%

-$0.04

$2.47

12.81%

$2.44

14.06%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.61

$1.62

-0.62%

-$0.01

$1.60

0.31%

$2.04

-21.32%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$811.52

$822.18

-1.30%

-$10.66

$718.83

12.89%

$699.65

15.99%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$104.83

$106.10

-1.20%

-$1.27

$99.31

5.56%

$93.42

12.21%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/12/24

2/9/24

% Change

Change

1/12/24

% Change

2/13/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

69.17%

67.65%

2.25%

1.52%

65.05%

6.33%

68.41%

1.11%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

97.64%

83.51%

16.92%

14.13%

88.22%

10.68%

122.48%

-20.28%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

101.37%

107.17%

-5.41%

-5.80%

90.16%

12.43%

86.30%

17.46%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

71.56%

70.15%

2.01%

1.41%

70.42%

1.62%

73.45%

-2.57%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

66.19%

65.77%

0.64%

0.42%

75.62%

-12.47%

40.71%

62.59%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

70.07%

51.13%

37.04%

18.94%

43.21%

62.16%

27.11%

158.47%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

172.43%

215.02%

-19.81%

-42.59%

158.29%

8.93%

55.49%

210.74%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/12/24

2/9/24

% Change

Change

1/12/24

% Change

2/13/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 25.79

EUR 26.80

-3.78%

-EUR 1.01

EUR 31.62

-18.46%

EUR 61.13

-57.81%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 62.84

GBP 65.60

-4.21%

-GBP 2.76

GBP 78.17

-19.60%

GBP 155.71

-59.64%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 59.84

EUR 62.32

-3.98%

-EUR 2.48

EUR 74.68

-19.87%

EUR 164.94

-63.72%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 59.50

GBP 60.83

-2.18%

-GBP 1.33

GBP 72.24

-17.64%

GBP 160.14

-62.84%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 56.74

EUR 59.03

-3.88%

-EUR 2.29

EUR 73.56

-22.86%

EUR 243.16

-76.66%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 83.71

EUR 86.90

-3.68%

-EUR 3.20

EUR 96.80

-13.53%

EUR 166.05

-49.59%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$9.10

$9.18

-0.80%

-$0.07

$10.56

-13.81%

$17.14

-46.89%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/12/24

2/9/24

% Change

Change

1/12/24

% Change

2/13/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$25.79

$26.80

-3.78%

-$1.01

$31.62

-18.46%

$61.13

-57.81%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$62.84

$65.60

-4.21%

-$2.76

$78.17

-19.60%

$155.71

-59.64%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$59.84

$62.32

-3.98%

-$2.48

$74.68

-19.87%

$164.94

-63.72%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$59.50

$60.83

-2.18%

-$1.33

$72.24

-17.64%

$160.14

-62.84%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$56.74

$59.03

-3.88%

-$2.29

$73.56

-22.86%

$243.16

-76.66%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$83.71

$86.90

-3.68%

-$3.20

$96.80

-13.53%

$166.05

-49.59%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$9.10

$9.18

-0.80%

-$0.07

$10.56

-13.81%

$17.14

-46.89%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/10/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

3

-4

-5

18

-26

-26

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

-8

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

3

-1

2

4

-15

-14

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

0

-1

4

-7

-6

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/10/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

223

-54

-32

3,541

-564

42

-14.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

208

-49

-11

3,281

-437

16

-12.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

183

-98

-37

3,550

-629

-209

-15.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

176

-113

-64

3,764

-738

-500

-16.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

111

-26

14

1,721

-202

-8

-11.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

106

-63

-9

2,220

-255

34

-10.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

65

-51

-27

1,569

-98

18

-6.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

197

1

-6

3,067

-314

-369

-9.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

145

30

32

1,775

-208

-254

-10.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

152

-42

-10

2,578

-358

-124

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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