Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-16-2024

Feb 16, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:49 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.600

$1.581

1.20%

$0.019

25,181

 

 

WTI

$77.81

$78.03

-0.28%

-$0.22

15,860

 

 

Brent

$82.26

$82.86

-0.72%

-$0.60

6,437

 

 

ULSD

$2.767

$2.824

-2.01%

-$0.057

5,447

 

 

RBOB

$2.288

$2.318

-1.32%

-$0.031

2,914

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.14

$5.27

-2.47%

-$0.13

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.92

$32.95

-3.12%

-$1.03

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$25.33

$24.89

1.76%

$0.44

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/09/24

623

4

-138

02/10/23

 

 

Canada

02/09/24

232

0

-18

02/10/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/6/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,524

94,586

95,225

-639

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,302

82,992

82,990

2

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

387,181

366,528

376,294

-9,766

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

292,856

247,575

212,857

34,718

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

115,156

105,923

105,899

24

 

 

NYM Ethanol

44,776

43,981

44,419

-438

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,907

150,075

150,643

-568

 

 

RBOB

377,032

352,552

359,527

-6,975

 

 

HSC Basis

734,074

726,569

727,095

-526

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/15/19

 

 

 

2/9/24

2/2/24

Net Change

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

536

568

-32

-5.63%

498

7.63%

468

14.53%

 

 

Midwest

662

689

-27

-3.92%

601

10.15%

552

19.88%

 

 

Mountain

178

183

-5

-2.73%

114

56.14%

114

56.41%

 

 

Pacific

222

228

-6

-2.63%

122

81.97%

176

26.28%

 

 

South

936

916

20

2.18%

931

0.54%

791

18.30%

 

 

    Salt

271

257

14

5.45%

262

3.44%

230

17.93%

 

 

    Non_Salt

665

659

6

0.91%

670

-0.75%

562

18.37%

 

 

Total

2,535

2,584

-49

-1.90%

2,266

11.87%

2,101

20.65%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/15/24

2/14/24

% Change

Change

1/18/24

% Change

2/16/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$28.75

$28.27

1.69%

$0.48

$40.28

-28.62%

$49.98

-42.48%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$28.27

$28.16

0.39%

$0.11

$37.23

-24.08%

$41.60

-32.05%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$32.00

$32.00

0.00%

$0.00

$35.50

-9.86%

$56.65

-43.51%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$28.31

$27.72

2.13%

$0.59

$38.08

-25.65%

$50.82

-44.29%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$35.39

$37.95

-6.74%

-$2.56

$49.15

-27.99%

$80.23

-55.88%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$53.75

$59.38

-9.49%

-$5.63

$76.97

-30.17%

$66.05

-18.63%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$31.48

$30.75

2.40%

$0.74

$43.46

-27.56%

$61.36

-48.69%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/15/24

2/14/24

% Change

Change

1/18/24

% Change

2/16/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$1.581

$1.609

-1.74%

-$0.03

$2.41

-34.48%

$3.63

-56.43%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.246

-$0.256

-3.91%

$0.01

-$0.21

14.82%

-$0.37

-33.94%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

-$0.002

$0.000

-100.00%

$0.00

-$0.04

-92.88%

-$0.10

-97.39%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.703

-$0.725

-3.05%

$0.02

-$1.10

-36.02%

-$0.77

-8.52%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$0.975

$1.176

-17.10%

-$0.20

$2.13

-54.16%

$4.20

-76.80%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.378

-$0.417

-9.28%

$0.04

-$0.81

-53.51%

-$1.25

-69.68%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.383

$0.328

16.97%

$0.06

$0.25

52.06%

$0.29

31.10%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/15/24

2/14/24

% Change

Change

1/18/24

% Change

2/16/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.905

$0.910

-0.55%

-$0.01

$0.80

12.58%

$0.83

9.53%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.930

$0.925

0.54%

$0.01

$0.81

14.26%

$0.83

12.55%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.180

$0.184

-1.95%

$0.00

$0.20

-9.35%

$0.25

-26.83%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.575

$1.584

-0.56%

-$0.01

$1.46

8.05%

$1.64

-3.91%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$1.058

$1.065

-0.65%

-$0.01

$0.98

7.59%

$0.96

10.04%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$6.193

$6.150

0.70%

$0.04

$5.93

4.42%

$5.74

7.85%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$6.170

$6.179

-0.14%

-$0.01

$5.67

8.84%

$5.54

11.36%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/15/24

2/14/24

% Change

Change

1/18/24

% Change

2/16/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$77.59

$76.36

1.59%

$1.23

$73.83

5.09%

$74.77

3.77%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$82.86

$81.60

1.52%

$1.26

$78.65

5.35%

$79.85

3.77%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$17.97

-$17.69

1.59%

-$0.28

-$17.59

2.18%

-$16.75

7.26%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$79.93

$78.33

2.01%

$1.60

$76.31

4.74%

$76.78

4.10%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$77.54

$76.02

1.96%

$1.52

$74.02

4.75%

$72.45

7.02%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$78.40

$76.88

1.94%

$1.52

$73.89

6.10%

$72.92

7.52%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$80.86

$79.60

1.56%

$1.26

$76.65

5.49%

$77.58

4.23%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/15/24

2/14/24

% Change

Change

1/18/24

% Change

2/16/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.82

$2.81

0.50%

$0.01

$2.65

6.58%

$2.64

6.82%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.32

$2.33

-0.64%

-$0.01

$2.20

5.32%

$2.21

4.51%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.21

$2.23

-0.67%

-$0.02

$2.10

5.58%

$2.12

4.73%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.67

$2.68

-0.11%

$0.00

$2.50

7.01%

$2.30

16.12%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.50

$1.53

-2.61%

-$0.04

$1.58

-5.26%

$2.03

-26.39%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$803.33

$793.86

1.19%

$9.47

$711.05

12.98%

$713.77

12.55%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$104.40

$106.10

-1.60%

-$1.70

$97.49

7.09%

$95.52

9.29%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/15/24

2/14/24

% Change

Change

1/18/24

% Change

2/16/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

68.13%

67.14%

1.47%

0.99%

59.45%

14.60%

52.04%

30.92%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

54.85%

55.58%

-1.31%

-0.73%

55.45%

-1.08%

45.55%

20.42%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

105.53%

101.78%

3.68%

3.75%

104.97%

0.53%

75.23%

40.28%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

56.81%

67.36%

-15.66%

-10.55%

58.98%

-3.68%

50.78%

11.87%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

41.08%

38.74%

6.04%

2.34%

39.20%

4.80%

43.19%

-4.89%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

60.65%

54.94%

10.39%

5.71%

30.63%

98.01%

27.07%

124.05%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

277.71%

320.10%

-13.24%

-42.39%

288.43%

-3.72%

59.73%

364.94%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/15/24

2/14/24

% Change

Change

1/18/24

% Change

2/16/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 25.20

EUR 25.24

-0.14%

-EUR 0.03

EUR 28.09

-10.29%

EUR 57.10

-55.87%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 60.91

GBP 60.91

0.00%

GBP 0.00

GBP 67.71

-10.03%

GBP 149.97

-59.38%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 55.30

EUR 54.52

1.42%

EUR 0.78

EUR 63.80

-13.32%

EUR 158.20

-65.04%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 58.11

GBP 56.56

2.74%

GBP 1.55

GBP 61.93

-6.16%

GBP 137.97

-57.88%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 51.58

EUR 51.45

0.25%

EUR 0.13

EUR 59.27

-12.99%

EUR 145.92

-64.66%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 77.76

EUR 77.56

0.26%

EUR 0.21

EUR 87.55

-11.18%

EUR 163.46

-52.43%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$9.27

$9.25

0.18%

$0.02

$9.60

-3.47%

$16.63

-44.27%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/15/24

2/14/24

% Change

Change

1/18/24

% Change

2/16/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$25.20

$25.24

-0.14%

-$0.03

$28.09

-10.29%

$57.10

-55.87%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$60.91

$60.91

0.00%

$0.00

$67.71

-10.03%

$149.97

-59.38%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$55.30

$54.52

1.42%

$0.78

$63.80

-13.32%

$158.20

-65.04%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$58.11

$56.56

2.74%

$1.55

$61.93

-6.16%

$137.97

-57.88%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$51.58

$51.45

0.25%

$0.13

$59.27

-12.99%

$145.92

-64.66%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$77.76

$77.56

0.26%

$0.21

$87.55

-11.18%

$163.46

-52.43%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$9.27

$9.25

0.18%

$0.02

$9.60

-3.47%

$16.63

-44.27%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/10/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

3

-4

-5

18

-26

-26

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

-8

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

3

-1

2

4

-15

-14

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

0

-1

4

-7

-6

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/10/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

223

-54

-32

3,541

-564

42

-14.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

208

-49

-11

3,281

-437

16

-12.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

183

-98

-37

3,550

-629

-209

-15.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

176

-113

-64

3,764

-738

-500

-16.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

111

-26

14

1,721

-202

-8

-11.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

106

-63

-9

2,220

-255

34

-10.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

65

-51

-27

1,569

-98

18

-6.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

197

1

-6

3,067

-314

-369

-9.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

145

30

32

1,775

-208

-254

-10.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

152

-42

-10

2,578

-358

-124

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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