Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-22-2024

Feb 22, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.686

$1.773

-4.91%

-$0.087

13,990

 

 

WTI

$77.76

$77.91

-0.19%

-$0.15

76,123

 

 

Brent

$82.88

$83.03

-0.18%

-$0.15

5,966

 

 

ULSD

$2.683

$2.705

-0.83%

-$0.022

3,874

 

 

RBOB

$2.265

$2.286

-0.91%

-$0.021

1,600

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.12

$5.12

0.00%

$0.00

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.42

$30.22

-2.65%

-$0.80

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$29.56

$24.63

19.98%

$4.92

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/16/24

621

-2

-139

02/17/23

 

 

Canada

02/16/24

234

2

-14

02/17/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/6/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,524

94,586

95,225

-639

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,302

82,992

82,990

2

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

387,181

366,528

376,294

-9,766

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

292,856

247,575

212,857

34,718

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

115,156

105,923

105,899

24

 

 

NYM Ethanol

44,776

43,981

44,419

-438

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,907

150,075

150,643

-568

 

 

RBOB

377,032

352,552

359,527

-6,975

 

 

HSC Basis

734,074

726,569

727,095

-526

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/15/19

 

 

 

2/9/24

2/2/24

Net Change

% Change

2/10/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

536

568

-32

-5.63%

498

7.63%

468

14.53%

 

 

Midwest

662

689

-27

-3.92%

601

10.15%

552

19.88%

 

 

Mountain

178

183

-5

-2.73%

114

56.14%

114

56.41%

 

 

Pacific

222

228

-6

-2.63%

122

81.97%

176

26.28%

 

 

South

936

916

20

2.18%

931

0.54%

791

18.30%

 

 

    Salt

271

257

14

5.45%

262

3.44%

230

17.93%

 

 

    Non_Salt

665

659

6

0.91%

670

-0.75%

562

18.37%

 

 

Total

2,535

2,584

-49

-1.90%

2,266

11.87%

2,101

20.65%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/21/24

2/20/24

% Change

Change

1/23/24

% Change

2/22/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$33.16

$28.43

16.66%

$4.74

$39.40

-15.83%

$45.94

-27.81%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$27.92

$27.24

2.51%

$0.68

$40.54

-31.13%

$35.48

-21.30%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$32.98

$32.25

2.26%

$0.73

$36.76

-10.27%

$51.73

-36.25%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$32.77

$27.96

17.21%

$4.81

$36.72

-10.76%

$46.45

-29.45%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$36.72

$33.03

11.19%

$3.69

$45.97

-20.11%

$74.56

-50.75%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$55.00

$54.79

0.37%

$0.21

$79.42

-30.74%

$65.92

-16.57%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$34.63

$29.91

15.77%

$4.72

$41.67

-16.89%

$55.12

-37.18%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/21/24

2/20/24

% Change

Change

1/23/24

% Change

2/22/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$1.773

$1.576

12.50%

$0.20

$2.17

-18.18%

$3.47

-48.89%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.266

-$0.263

1.03%

$0.00

-$0.19

37.52%

-$0.33

-19.07%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

-$0.049

-$0.027

-45.08%

-$0.02

-$0.02

139.22%

-$0.13

-61.15%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.798

-$0.773

-3.26%

-$0.03

-$1.12

-28.92%

-$0.81

-1.47%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$0.730

$0.890

-18.00%

-$0.16

$1.83

-60.00%

$3.98

-81.66%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.330

-$0.356

-7.44%

$0.03

-$0.73

-54.83%

-$1.15

-71.43%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.432

$0.402

7.41%

$0.03

$0.25

74.41%

$0.70

-38.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/21/24

2/20/24

% Change

Change

1/23/24

% Change

2/22/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.847

$0.852

-0.55%

$0.00

$0.78

8.67%

$0.81

5.01%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.855

$0.864

-1.11%

-$0.01

$0.78

9.67%

$0.81

5.56%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.190

$0.179

6.25%

$0.01

$0.19

-0.03%

$0.24

-20.46%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.550

$1.530

1.27%

$0.02

$1.47

5.15%

$1.58

-1.99%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$1.014

$1.028

-1.44%

-$0.01

$0.96

5.79%

$0.96

5.39%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$6.098

$6.100

-0.03%

$0.00

$5.99

1.83%

$5.83

4.53%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$6.189

$6.199

-0.15%

-$0.01

$5.75

7.65%

$5.53

11.92%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/21/24

2/20/24

% Change

Change

1/23/24

% Change

2/22/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$77.91

$77.04

1.12%

$0.87

$74.27

4.90%

$71.52

8.93%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$83.03

$82.34

0.83%

$0.69

$79.11

4.96%

$76.86

8.03%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$18.10

-$18.64

-2.96%

$0.54

-$17.33

4.48%

-$18.44

-1.86%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$79.45

$79.37

0.10%

$0.08

$76.84

3.40%

$73.41

8.23%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$77.27

$76.52

0.97%

$0.75

$74.16

4.19%

$68.95

12.07%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$76.96

$78.04

-1.40%

-$1.07

$74.64

3.11%

$69.84

10.20%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$81.03

$80.34

0.85%

$0.69

$77.11

5.08%

$74.11

9.33%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/21/24

2/20/24

% Change

Change

1/23/24

% Change

2/22/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.70

$2.73

-1.10%

-$0.03

$2.66

1.54%

$2.56

5.66%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.28

$2.28

0.09%

$0.00

$2.25

1.60%

$2.10

8.93%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.18

$2.18

0.09%

$0.00

$2.15

1.68%

$2.00

9.37%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.65

$2.59

2.31%

$0.06

$2.70

-1.63%

$2.32

14.31%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.49

$1.49

-0.34%

$0.00

$1.62

-8.05%

$2.01

-26.05%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$774.94

$778.00

-0.39%

-$3.06

$739.78

4.75%

$692.70

11.87%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$101.17

$104.05

-2.76%

-$2.88

$99.52

1.66%

$94.50

7.06%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/21/24

2/20/24

% Change

Change

1/23/24

% Change

2/22/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

62.80%

70.30%

-10.67%

-7.50%

60.12%

4.46%

54.19%

15.89%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

59.65%

67.50%

-11.63%

-7.85%

54.05%

10.36%

48.99%

21.76%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

100.65%

119.36%

-15.68%

-18.71%

110.42%

-8.85%

75.13%

33.97%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

59.47%

71.19%

-16.46%

-11.72%

62.08%

-4.20%

54.38%

9.36%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

48.07%

45.53%

5.58%

2.54%

40.02%

20.11%

43.56%

10.35%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

62.10%

69.45%

-10.58%

-7.35%

144.85%

-57.13%

27.96%

122.10%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

285.54%

235.30%

21.35%

50.24%

285.64%

-0.04%

60.54%

371.66%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/21/24

2/20/24

% Change

Change

1/23/24

% Change

2/22/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 24.01

EUR 23.79

0.92%

EUR 0.22

EUR 27.62

-13.08%

EUR 53.67

-55.26%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 58.38

GBP 57.84

0.92%

GBP 0.53

GBP 66.43

-12.12%

GBP 139.94

-58.28%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 52.75

EUR 52.11

1.23%

EUR 0.64

EUR 60.44

-12.72%

EUR 151.26

-65.13%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 54.47

GBP 53.18

2.43%

GBP 1.29

GBP 61.59

-11.57%

GBP 135.27

-59.73%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 48.01

EUR 49.48

-2.97%

-EUR 1.47

EUR 58.25

-17.58%

EUR 137.75

-65.15%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 75.57

EUR 73.84

2.34%

EUR 1.73

EUR 87.24

-13.38%

EUR 154.26

-51.01%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$9.12

$8.94

2.00%

$0.18

$9.33

-2.26%

$15.70

-41.88%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/21/24

2/20/24

% Change

Change

1/23/24

% Change

2/22/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$24.01

$23.79

0.92%

$0.22

$27.62

-13.08%

$53.67

-55.26%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$58.38

$57.84

0.92%

$0.53

$66.43

-12.12%

$139.94

-58.28%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$52.75

$52.11

1.23%

$0.64

$60.44

-12.72%

$151.26

-65.13%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$54.47

$53.18

2.43%

$1.29

$61.59

-11.57%

$135.27

-59.73%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$48.01

$49.48

-2.97%

-$1.47

$58.25

-17.58%

$137.75

-65.15%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$75.57

$73.84

2.34%

$1.73

$87.24

-13.38%

$154.26

-51.01%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$9.12

$8.94

2.00%

$0.18

$9.33

-2.26%

$15.70

-41.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/17/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

6

-1

-2

25

-26

-28

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

-1

0

-8

-3

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-2

5

-18

-16

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

0

-1

5

-7

-7

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/17/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

237

-31

62

3,778

-595

104

-14.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

228

-21

75

3,509

-458

91

-12.00%

3.00%

 

 

E N Central

234

-34

35

3,784

-663

-174

-15.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W N Central

237

-35

-4

4,001

-772

-504

-16.00%

-11.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

94

-34

15

1,816

-235

8

-11.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

125

-32

13

2,345

-287

48

-11.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

98

-6

-5

1,668

-103

13

-6.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

201

16

-27

3,268

-298

-396

-8.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

127

18

-24

1,902

-190

-277

-9.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

167

-18

17

2,745

-376

-107

-12.00%

-4.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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