Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-23-2024

Feb 23, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:51 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.616

$1.732

-6.70%

-$0.116

7,524

 

 

WTI

$77.09

$78.61

-1.93%

-$1.52

76,832

 

 

Brent

$82.15

$83.67

-1.82%

-$1.52

4,874

 

 

ULSD

$2.705

$2.752

-1.70%

-$0.047

2,104

 

 

RBOB

$2.292

$2.335

-1.83%

-$0.043

1,248

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.09

$5.06

0.59%

$0.03

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$30.82

$31.13

-0.97%

-$0.30

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$25.77

$29.46

-12.52%

-$3.69

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/16/24

621

-2

-139

02/17/23

 

 

Canada

02/16/24

234

2

-14

02/17/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/6/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,524

94,586

95,225

-639

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,302

82,992

82,990

2

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

387,181

366,528

376,294

-9,766

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

292,856

247,575

212,857

34,718

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

115,156

105,923

105,899

24

 

 

NYM Ethanol

44,776

43,981

44,419

-438

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,907

150,075

150,643

-568

 

 

RBOB

377,032

352,552

359,527

-6,975

 

 

HSC Basis

734,074

726,569

727,095

-526

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/22/19

 

 

 

2/16/24

2/9/24

Net Change

% Change

2/17/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

505

536

-31

-5.78%

479

5.43%

427

18.16%

 

 

Midwest

631

662

-31

-4.68%

575

9.74%

502

25.75%

 

 

Mountain

173

178

-5

-2.81%

106

63.21%

104

66.03%

 

 

Pacific

217

222

-5

-2.25%

108

100.93%

164

32.32%

 

 

South

944

936

8

0.85%

926

1.94%

734

28.61%

 

 

    Salt

278

271

7

2.58%

262

6.11%

205

35.87%

 

 

    Non_Salt

666

665

1

0.15%

664

0.30%

530

25.76%

 

 

Total

2,470

2,535

-65

-2.56%

2,195

12.53%

1,932

27.86%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/22/24

2/21/24

% Change

Change

1/24/24

% Change

2/23/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$29.22

$33.16

-11.89%

-$3.94

$42.04

-30.50%

$46.40

-37.03%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$28.30

$27.92

1.35%

$0.38

$40.05

-29.33%

$37.20

-23.93%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$32.46

$32.98

-1.57%

-$0.52

$39.56

-17.95%

$52.66

-38.36%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$29.22

$32.77

-10.84%

-$3.55

$39.22

-25.50%

$47.22

-38.13%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$32.49

$36.72

-11.52%

-$4.23

$50.28

-35.38%

$76.94

-57.77%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$51.40

$55.00

-6.54%

-$3.60

$79.04

-34.96%

$66.64

-22.86%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$30.55

$34.63

-11.77%

-$4.08

$45.27

-32.51%

$56.98

-46.38%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/22/24

2/21/24

% Change

Change

1/24/24

% Change

2/23/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$1.732

$1.773

-2.31%

-$0.04

$2.26

-23.43%

$3.56

-51.29%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.276

-$0.266

3.72%

-$0.01

-$0.19

41.90%

-$0.36

-22.28%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

-$0.078

-$0.049

-37.60%

-$0.03

$0.01

-1521.82%

-$0.08

-4.05%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.869

-$0.798

-8.89%

-$0.07

-$1.13

-22.73%

-$0.87

-0.31%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$0.635

$0.730

-13.01%

-$0.10

$1.94

-67.23%

$3.78

-83.22%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.442

-$0.330

34.10%

-$0.11

-$0.77

-42.68%

-$1.11

-60.28%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.459

$0.432

6.22%

$0.03

$0.40

14.49%

$0.63

-26.78%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/22/24

2/21/24

% Change

Change

1/24/24

% Change

2/23/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.863

$0.847

1.86%

$0.02

$0.81

6.48%

$0.80

7.97%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.871

$0.855

1.85%

$0.02

$0.82

5.74%

$0.82

6.81%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.193

$0.190

1.33%

$0.00

$0.20

-2.58%

$0.23

-16.90%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.567

$1.550

1.13%

$0.02

$1.49

5.03%

$1.55

0.81%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$1.007

$1.014

-0.61%

-$0.01

$1.03

-2.23%

$0.94

6.98%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$6.070

$6.098

-0.47%

-$0.03

$6.07

0.04%

$5.71

6.29%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$6.169

$6.189

-0.32%

-$0.02

$5.76

7.10%

$5.51

12.01%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/22/24

2/21/24

% Change

Change

1/24/24

% Change

2/23/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$78.61

$77.91

0.89%

$0.70

$74.98

4.84%

$72.57

8.32%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$83.67

$83.03

0.76%

$0.64

$79.63

5.07%

$77.82

7.52%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$17.80

-$18.10

-1.71%

$0.30

-$17.11

3.98%

-$18.42

-3.37%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$80.16

$79.45

0.88%

$0.71

$77.73

3.12%

$74.28

7.92%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$77.62

$77.27

0.45%

$0.35

$75.18

3.25%

$69.27

12.05%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$78.43

$76.96

1.87%

$1.46

$75.50

3.89%

$71.11

10.28%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$81.67

$81.03

0.78%

$0.64

$77.63

5.20%

$76.10

7.32%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/22/24

2/21/24

% Change

Change

1/24/24

% Change

2/23/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.76

$2.70

1.85%

$0.05

$2.66

3.49%

$2.57

7.12%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.53

$2.28

10.82%

$0.25

$2.24

12.75%

$2.18

16.17%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.43

$2.18

11.32%

$0.25

$2.14

13.35%

$2.08

16.95%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.55

$2.65

-3.77%

-$0.10

$2.48

2.94%

$2.67

-4.31%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.48

$1.49

-0.54%

-$0.01

$1.63

-9.11%

$1.98

-25.33%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$778.55

$774.94

0.47%

$3.61

$735.59

5.84%

$697.30

11.65%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$102.35

$101.17

1.16%

$1.18

$98.85

3.54%

$93.65

9.29%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/22/24

2/21/24

% Change

Change

1/24/24

% Change

2/23/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

73.63%

62.80%

17.25%

10.83%

57.64%

27.74%

51.95%

41.73%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

71.12%

59.65%

19.23%

11.47%

48.61%

46.31%

50.35%

41.25%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

110.27%

100.65%

9.56%

9.62%

102.85%

7.21%

65.16%

69.23%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

72.29%

59.47%

21.56%

12.82%

57.59%

25.53%

52.39%

37.98%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

43.50%

48.07%

-9.51%

-4.57%

45.42%

-4.23%

43.58%

-0.18%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

43.90%

62.10%

-29.31%

-18.20%

26.07%

68.39%

27.21%

61.34%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

265.92%

285.54%

-6.87%

-19.62%

226.35%

17.48%

61.57%

331.90%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/22/24

2/21/24

% Change

Change

1/24/24

% Change

2/23/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 23.12

EUR 24.01

-3.70%

-EUR 0.89

EUR 29.21

-20.86%

EUR 55.13

-58.06%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 56.36

GBP 58.38

-3.45%

-GBP 2.01

GBP 70.53

-20.08%

GBP 142.92

-60.56%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 50.32

EUR 52.75

-4.62%

-EUR 2.43

EUR 64.75

-22.29%

EUR 145.14

-65.33%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 53.20

GBP 54.47

-2.32%

-GBP 1.26

GBP 65.04

-18.19%

GBP 128.12

-58.47%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 46.67

EUR 48.01

-2.81%

-EUR 1.35

EUR 62.13

-24.89%

EUR 133.07

-64.93%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 73.56

EUR 75.57

-2.66%

-EUR 2.01

EUR 87.93

-16.34%

EUR 154.10

-52.27%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$9.12

$9.12

-0.02%

$0.00

$9.81

-7.07%

$15.24

-40.17%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/22/24

2/21/24

% Change

Change

1/24/24

% Change

2/23/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$23.12

$24.01

-3.70%

-$0.89

$29.21

-20.86%

$55.13

-58.06%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$56.36

$58.38

-3.45%

-$2.01

$70.53

-20.08%

$142.92

-60.56%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$50.32

$52.75

-4.62%

-$2.43

$64.75

-22.29%

$145.14

-65.33%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$53.20

$54.47

-2.32%

-$1.26

$65.04

-18.19%

$128.12

-58.47%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$46.67

$48.01

-2.81%

-$1.35

$62.13

-24.89%

$133.07

-64.93%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$73.56

$75.57

-2.66%

-$2.01

$87.93

-16.34%

$154.10

-52.27%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$9.12

$9.12

-0.02%

$0.00

$9.81

-7.07%

$15.24

-40.17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/17/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

6

-1

-2

25

-26

-28

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

-1

0

-8

-3

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-2

5

-18

-16

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

0

-1

5

-7

-7

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/17/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

237

-31

62

3,778

-595

104

-14.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

228

-21

75

3,509

-458

91

-12.00%

3.00%

 

 

E N Central

234

-34

35

3,784

-663

-174

-15.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W N Central

237

-35

-4

4,001

-772

-504

-16.00%

-11.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

94

-34

15

1,816

-235

8

-11.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

125

-32

13

2,345

-287

48

-11.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

98

-6

-5

1,668

-103

13

-6.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

201

16

-27

3,268

-298

-396

-8.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

127

18

-24

1,902

-190

-277

-9.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

167

-18

17

2,745

-376

-107

-12.00%

-4.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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