Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-27-2024

Feb 27, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:20 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.668

$1.659

0.54%

$0.009

2,027

 

 

WTI

$77.91

$77.58

0.43%

$0.33

72,120

 

 

Brent

$82.79

$82.53

0.32%

$0.26

2,424

 

 

ULSD

$2.757

$2.763

-0.20%

-$0.005

2,925

 

 

RBOB

$2.330

$2.306

1.06%

$0.024

1,321

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.81

$4.95

-2.83%

-$0.14

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.10

$31.92

0.54%

$0.17

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$25.39

$23.63

7.47%

$1.77

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/23/24

626

5

-127

02/24/23

 

 

Canada

02/23/24

231

-3

-13

02/24/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/20/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,189

95,769

95,880

-111

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,797

82,482

82,646

-164

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

391,941

369,385

379,693

-10,308

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

145,874

122,677

108,540

14,137

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

116,848

109,544

108,904

640

 

 

NYM Ethanol

52,454

51,704

52,046

-342

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

162,467

161,545

162,247

-702

 

 

RBOB

391,100

366,555

376,101

-9,546

 

 

HSC Basis

788,024

779,794

782,203

-2,409

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/22/19

 

 

 

2/16/24

2/9/24

Net Change

% Change

2/17/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

505

536

-31

-5.78%

479

5.43%

427

18.16%

 

 

Midwest

631

662

-31

-4.68%

575

9.74%

502

25.75%

 

 

Mountain

173

178

-5

-2.81%

106

63.21%

104

66.03%

 

 

Pacific

217

222

-5

-2.25%

108

100.93%

164

32.32%

 

 

South

944

936

8

0.85%

926

1.94%

734

28.61%

 

 

    Salt

278

271

7

2.58%

262

6.11%

205

35.87%

 

 

    Non_Salt

666

665

1

0.15%

664

0.30%

530

25.76%

 

 

Total

2,470

2,535

-65

-2.56%

2,195

12.53%

1,932

27.86%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/26/24

2/23/24

% Change

Change

1/26/24

% Change

2/27/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$28.94

$27.17

6.48%

$1.76

$37.28

-22.38%

$47.79

-39.45%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$27.22

$27.68

-1.65%

-$0.46

$36.97

-26.38%

$40.70

-33.12%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$28.43

$30.18

-5.79%

-$1.75

$39.59

-28.17%

$55.28

-48.56%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$28.94

$26.71

8.33%

$2.23

$34.87

-17.02%

$48.67

-40.54%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$32.34

$31.50

2.65%

$0.84

$43.83

-26.23%

$77.55

-58.30%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$44.28

$48.07

-7.87%

-$3.78

$79.09

-44.01%

$68.42

-35.28%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$29.95

$27.96

7.13%

$1.99

$40.40

-25.86%

$57.90

-48.27%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/26/24

2/23/24

% Change

Change

1/26/24

% Change

2/27/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Mar-24

$1.659

$1.603

3.49%

$0.06

$2.17

-23.72%

$3.69

-55.00%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Mar-24

-$0.278

-$0.245

13.13%

-$0.03

-$0.17

61.81%

-$0.41

-31.97%

 

 

Chicago

Mar-24

-$0.098

-$0.074

-24.80%

-$0.02

$0.02

-685.71%

-$0.08

22.54%

 

 

Waha

Mar-24

-$0.936

-$0.798

-17.26%

-$0.14

-$1.04

-9.56%

-$0.95

-1.12%

 

 

Algonquin

Mar-24

$0.452

$0.470

-3.73%

-$0.02

$1.85

-75.60%

$4.09

-88.94%

 

 

Aeco

Mar-24

-$0.338

-$0.403

-16.05%

$0.06

-$0.71

-52.32%

-$1.18

-71.39%

 

 

Socal

Mar-24

$0.394

$0.361

9.00%

$0.03

$0.42

-7.00%

$1.18

-66.60%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/26/24

2/23/24

% Change

Change

1/26/24

% Change

2/27/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.845

$0.855

-1.18%

-$0.01

$0.83

1.31%

$0.80

5.14%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.855

$0.862

-0.88%

-$0.01

$0.81

5.69%

$0.81

6.03%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.187

$0.188

-0.03%

$0.00

$0.20

-6.20%

$0.25

-25.74%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.535

$1.553

-1.14%

-$0.02

$1.52

1.14%

$1.58

-2.57%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$0.995

$0.989

0.55%

$0.01

$0.97

2.81%

$0.96

3.26%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$5.910

$5.990

-1.34%

-$0.08

$5.98

-1.16%

$5.77

2.43%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$6.201

$6.168

0.53%

$0.03

$5.87

5.66%

$5.54

11.87%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/26/24

2/23/24

% Change

Change

1/26/24

% Change

2/27/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$77.58

$76.49

1.41%

$1.09

$77.86

-0.36%

$72.11

7.59%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$82.53

$81.62

1.10%

$0.91

$82.95

-0.51%

$77.45

6.56%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$18.00

-$17.60

2.19%

-$0.39

-$16.17

11.29%

-$17.50

2.83%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$79.39

$78.57

1.03%

$0.82

$80.22

-1.04%

$74.84

6.07%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$77.16

$75.62

1.99%

$1.54

$77.06

0.12%

$70.19

9.93%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$78.00

$77.81

0.25%

$0.19

$78.03

-0.04%

$70.28

10.99%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$80.53

$79.62

1.13%

$0.91

$80.95

-0.52%

$75.52

6.63%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/26/24

2/23/24

% Change

Change

1/26/24

% Change

2/27/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.77

$2.69

3.05%

$0.08

$2.82

-1.95%

$2.61

6.01%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.54

$2.28

11.73%

$0.27

$2.32

9.47%

$2.19

16.38%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.44

$2.18

12.26%

$0.27

$2.22

9.89%

$2.09

17.16%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.61

$2.36

10.77%

$0.25

$2.64

-1.02%

$2.53

3.24%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.46

$1.46

0.00%

$0.00

$1.62

-10.13%

$1.91

-23.98%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$782.45

$774.39

1.04%

$8.06

$762.01

2.68%

$713.25

9.70%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$100.69

$101.39

-0.69%

-$0.70

$101.79

-1.08%

$95.72

5.19%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/26/24

2/23/24

% Change

Change

1/26/24

% Change

2/27/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

68.78%

73.58%

-6.52%

-4.80%

56.92%

20.84%

51.06%

34.70%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

70.01%

74.83%

-6.44%

-4.82%

48.27%

45.04%

55.64%

25.83%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

113.56%

118.96%

-4.54%

-5.40%

119.26%

-4.78%

62.89%

80.57%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

65.98%

71.52%

-7.75%

-5.54%

57.25%

15.25%

51.63%

27.79%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

44.65%

42.67%

4.64%

1.98%

45.15%

-1.11%

43.76%

2.03%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

68.32%

64.05%

6.67%

4.27%

42.38%

61.21%

27.00%

153.04%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

136.31%

230.83%

-40.95%

-94.52%

357.60%

-61.88%

58.61%

132.57%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/26/24

2/23/24

% Change

Change

1/26/24

% Change

2/27/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 23.92

EUR 23.59

1.39%

EUR 0.33

EUR 28.14

-15.01%

EUR 52.90

-54.79%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 58.60

GBP 57.37

2.15%

GBP 1.23

GBP 68.47

-14.42%

GBP 137.40

-57.35%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 53.63

EUR 50.96

5.24%

EUR 2.67

EUR 60.49

-11.34%

EUR 148.35

-63.85%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 54.79

GBP 54.27

0.96%

GBP 0.52

GBP 61.94

-11.55%

GBP 128.60

-57.40%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 45.92

EUR 45.75

0.38%

EUR 0.17

EUR 58.19

-21.08%

EUR 139.20

-67.01%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 75.59

EUR 73.63

2.66%

EUR 1.96

EUR 83.94

-9.95%

EUR 156.43

-51.68%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$9.38

$9.21

1.89%

$0.17

$9.51

-1.29%

$16.02

-41.44%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/26/24

2/23/24

% Change

Change

1/26/24

% Change

2/27/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$23.92

$23.59

1.39%

$0.33

$28.14

-15.01%

$52.90

-54.79%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$58.60

$57.37

2.15%

$1.23

$68.47

-14.42%

$137.40

-57.35%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$53.63

$50.96

5.24%

$2.67

$60.49

-11.34%

$148.35

-63.85%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$54.79

$54.27

0.96%

$0.52

$61.94

-11.55%

$128.60

-57.40%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$45.92

$45.75

0.38%

$0.17

$58.19

-21.08%

$139.20

-67.01%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$75.59

$73.63

2.66%

$1.96

$83.94

-9.95%

$156.43

-51.68%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$9.38

$9.21

1.89%

$0.17

$9.51

-1.29%

$16.02

-41.44%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/24/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

2

-6

-15

27

-32

-43

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

-8

0

-10

-10

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

6

2

-8

11

-15

-25

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-2

-4

6

-9

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/24/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

255

-1

30

4,033

-595

135

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

232

-5

44

3,741

-462

135

-11.00%

4.00%

 

 

E N Central

206

-46

-2

3,990

-709

-176

-15.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W N Central

183

-70

-89

4,184

-843

-593

-17.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

119

0

55

1,934

-236

63

-11.00%

3.00%

 

 

E S Central

130

-14

49

2,475

-302

97

-11.00%

4.00%

 

 

W S Central

73

-20

10

1,740

-124

23

-7.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

160

-14

-56

3,428

-312

-452

-8.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

102

-3

-48

2,004

-193

-326

-9.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

156

-17

5

2,901

-393

-103

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

To opt out of this email please follow this link.

Campbell Faulkner | OTC Global Holdings

Quality Data – Reliable Service – Affordable Price

5151 San Felipe Suite 2200
Houston, TX 77056
faulkner.c@otcgh.com
eoxlive.com/market-data

 

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.