Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Feb-28-2024

Feb 28, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:49 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.846

$1.615

14.30%

$0.231

21,850

 

 

WTI

$78.77

$78.87

-0.13%

-$0.10

70,801

 

 

Brent

$83.62

$83.65

-0.04%

-$0.03

1,594

 

 

ULSD

$2.721

$2.746

-0.91%

-$0.025

1,197

 

 

RBOB

$2.329

$2.344

-0.65%

-$0.015

1,456

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.84

$4.78

1.26%

$0.06

Apr-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$30.73

$31.54

-2.57%

-$0.81

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Mar-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

02/23/24

626

5

-127

02/24/23

 

 

Canada

02/23/24

231

-3

-13

02/24/23

 

 

International

Jan

965

10

64

Jan

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/20/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,189

95,769

95,880

-111

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,797

82,482

82,646

-164

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

391,941

369,385

379,693

-10,308

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

145,874

122,677

108,540

14,137

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

116,848

109,544

108,904

640

 

 

NYM Ethanol

52,454

51,704

52,046

-342

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

162,467

161,545

162,247

-702

 

 

RBOB

391,100

366,555

376,101

-9,546

 

 

HSC Basis

788,024

779,794

782,203

-2,409

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

02/22/19

 

 

 

2/16/24

2/9/24

Net Change

% Change

2/17/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

505

536

-31

-5.78%

479

5.43%

427

18.16%

 

 

Midwest

631

662

-31

-4.68%

575

9.74%

502

25.75%

 

 

Mountain

173

178

-5

-2.81%

106

63.21%

104

66.03%

 

 

Pacific

217

222

-5

-2.25%

108

100.93%

164

32.32%

 

 

South

944

936

8

0.85%

926

1.94%

734

28.61%

 

 

    Salt

278

271

7

2.58%

262

6.11%

205

35.87%

 

 

    Non_Salt

666

665

1

0.15%

664

0.30%

530

25.76%

 

 

Total

2,470

2,535

-65

-2.56%

2,195

12.53%

1,932

27.86%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/27/24

2/26/24

% Change

Change

1/29/24

% Change

2/28/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Mar-24

$25.97

$28.94

-10.24%

-$2.96

$35.71

-27.27%

$47.80

-45.66%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Mar-24

$27.52

$27.22

1.11%

$0.30

$40.02

-31.24%

$40.35

-31.79%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Mar-24

$25.25

$28.43

-11.20%

-$3.18

$37.00

-31.76%

$57.12

-55.80%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Mar-24

$26.38

$28.94

-8.82%

-$2.55

$33.30

-20.77%

$48.66

-45.78%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Mar-24

$28.67

$32.34

-11.33%

-$3.66

$45.80

-37.39%

$76.16

-62.35%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Mar-24

$36.49

$44.28

-17.59%

-$7.79

$65.11

-43.96%

$72.34

-49.55%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Mar-24

$26.75

$29.95

-10.71%

-$3.21

$41.80

-36.01%

$57.32

-53.34%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/27/24

2/26/24

% Change

Change

1/29/24

% Change

2/28/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.808

$1.744

3.67%

$0.06

$2.09

-13.45%

$3.33

-45.77%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.304

-$0.298

2.08%

-$0.01

-$0.22

35.49%

-$0.41

-25.77%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.114

-$0.112

-1.58%

$0.00

-$0.05

145.69%

-$0.08

48.05%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.103

-$1.020

-8.08%

-$0.08

-$1.09

1.37%

-$1.24

-11.09%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

$0.068

$0.036

91.27%

$0.03

$0.36

-81.14%

$1.10

-93.80%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.500

-$0.491

1.94%

-$0.01

-$0.74

-32.81%

-$1.02

-51.06%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

$0.181

$0.221

-18.07%

-$0.04

$0.19

-3.11%

$0.04

304.70%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/27/24

2/26/24

% Change

Change

1/29/24

% Change

2/28/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Mar-24

$0.840

$0.845

-0.59%

$0.00

$0.83

1.79%

$0.82

1.89%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Mar-24

$0.852

$0.855

-0.27%

$0.00

$0.83

3.17%

$0.83

3.24%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Mar-24

$0.186

$0.187

-0.69%

$0.00

$0.20

-8.01%

$0.26

-27.01%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Mar-24

$1.574

$1.535

2.52%

$0.04

$1.54

1.99%

$1.58

-0.60%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Mar-24

$0.990

$0.995

-0.48%

$0.00

$0.99

0.37%

$0.97

1.83%

 

 

Far East Propane

Mar-24

$5.969

$5.910

1.00%

$0.06

$6.10

-2.21%

$5.86

1.78%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Mar-24

$6.170

$6.201

-0.51%

-$0.03

$5.92

4.26%

$5.63

9.56%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/27/24

2/26/24

% Change

Change

1/29/24

% Change

2/28/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$78.87

$77.58

1.64%

$1.29

$76.67

2.87%

$72.82

8.31%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$83.65

$82.53

1.34%

$1.12

$81.83

2.22%

$78.20

6.97%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$17.46

-$18.00

-3.06%

$0.53

-$13.08

33.50%

-$17.25

1.22%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$80.18

$79.39

0.99%

$0.80

$79.23

1.20%

$76.13

5.33%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$77.78

$77.16

0.79%

$0.62

$76.99

1.02%

$70.71

9.99%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$78.72

$78.00

0.92%

$0.72

$76.21

3.31%

$71.24

10.50%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$81.65

$80.53

1.37%

$1.12

$79.83

2.28%

$76.40

6.86%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/27/24

2/26/24

% Change

Change

1/29/24

% Change

2/28/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Mar-24

$2.74

$2.77

-0.87%

-$0.02

$2.81

-2.17%

$2.63

4.53%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.34

$2.54

-7.94%

-$0.20

$2.28

2.95%

$2.21

5.97%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Mar-24

$2.24

$2.44

-8.27%

-$0.20

$2.17

3.08%

$2.11

6.26%

 

 

GC Jet

Mar-24

$2.64

$2.61

0.92%

$0.02

$2.65

-0.60%

$2.38

10.76%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Mar-24

$1.41

$1.46

-3.16%

-$0.05

$1.65

-14.45%

$1.87

-24.61%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Mar-24

$788.38

$782.45

0.76%

$5.93

$779.16

1.18%

$712.65

10.63%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Mar-24

$103.10

$100.69

2.39%

$2.41

$102.17

0.91%

$94.75

8.82%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/27/24

2/26/24

% Change

Change

1/29/24

% Change

2/28/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

63.49%

68.78%

-7.69%

-5.29%

60.49%

4.96%

55.36%

14.69%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

64.15%

70.01%

-8.37%

-5.86%

51.19%

25.32%

59.79%

7.29%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

118.66%

113.56%

4.49%

5.10%

114.31%

3.81%

71.12%

66.84%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

60.40%

65.98%

-8.46%

-5.58%

58.48%

3.28%

55.65%

8.54%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

42.66%

44.65%

-4.46%

-1.99%

46.23%

-7.72%

43.44%

-1.80%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

84.48%

68.32%

23.65%

16.16%

49.36%

71.15%

30.89%

173.49%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

192.78%

136.31%

41.43%

56.47%

366.71%

-47.43%

59.11%

226.14%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/27/24

2/26/24

% Change

Change

1/29/24

% Change

2/28/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 24.65

EUR 23.92

3.07%

EUR 0.73

EUR 28.60

-13.82%

EUR 51.90

-52.51%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 60.41

GBP 58.60

3.08%

GBP 1.81

GBP 69.22

-12.73%

GBP 140.00

-56.85%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 54.57

EUR 53.63

1.75%

EUR 0.94

EUR 61.75

-11.63%

EUR 149.09

-63.40%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 57.35

GBP 54.79

4.69%

GBP 2.57

GBP 62.95

-8.89%

GBP 134.35

-57.31%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 49.81

EUR 45.92

8.47%

EUR 3.89

EUR 58.92

-15.46%

EUR 138.51

-64.04%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 76.57

EUR 75.59

1.29%

EUR 0.98

EUR 85.75

-10.71%

EUR 156.60

-51.11%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$9.25

$9.38

-1.45%

-$0.14

$9.24

0.10%

$16.11

-42.60%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

2/27/24

2/26/24

% Change

Change

1/29/24

% Change

2/28/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$24.65

$23.92

3.07%

$0.73

$28.60

-13.82%

$51.90

-52.51%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$60.41

$58.60

3.08%

$1.81

$69.22

-12.73%

$140.00

-56.85%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$54.57

$53.63

1.75%

$0.94

$61.75

-11.63%

$149.09

-63.40%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$57.35

$54.79

4.69%

$2.57

$62.95

-8.89%

$134.35

-57.31%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$49.81

$45.92

8.47%

$3.89

$58.92

-15.46%

$138.51

-64.04%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$76.57

$75.59

1.29%

$0.98

$85.75

-10.71%

$156.60

-51.11%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$9.25

$9.38

-1.45%

-$0.14

$9.24

0.10%

$16.11

-42.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/24/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

2

-6

-15

27

-32

-43

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

-8

0

-10

-10

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

6

2

-8

11

-15

-25

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-2

-4

6

-9

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02/24/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

255

-1

30

4,033

-595

135

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

232

-5

44

3,741

-462

135

-11.00%

4.00%

 

 

E N Central

206

-46

-2

3,990

-709

-176

-15.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W N Central

183

-70

-89

4,184

-843

-593

-17.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

119

0

55

1,934

-236

63

-11.00%

3.00%

 

 

E S Central

130

-14

49

2,475

-302

97

-11.00%

4.00%

 

 

W S Central

73

-20

10

1,740

-124

23

-7.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

160

-14

-56

3,428

-312

-452

-8.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

102

-3

-48

2,004

-193

-326

-9.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

156

-17

5

2,901

-393

-103

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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