Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-04-2024

Jan 4, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:55 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.786

$2.668

4.42%

$0.118

71,476

 

 

WTI

$72.71

$72.70

0.01%

$0.01

120,767

 

 

Brent

$78.14

$78.25

-0.14%

-$0.11

11,271

 

 

ULSD

$2.605

$2.604

0.03%

$0.001

11,136

 

 

RBOB

$2.137

$2.158

-0.98%

-$0.021

10,837

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.30

$5.36

-1.12%

-$0.06

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.55

$24.00

-1.88%

-$0.45

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$45.47

$43.67

4.13%

$1.80

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/29/24

622

2

-157

12/31/23

 

 

Canada

12/29/24

86

-60

2

12/31/23

 

 

International

Nov

978

16

68

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/26/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

93,262

92,654

92,994

-340

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,889

83,462

83,706

-244

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

400,999

377,797

390,703

-12,906

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

148,056

128,059

115,285

12,774

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,261

124,004

124,650

-646

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,035

39,422

39,299

123

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

143,008

142,646

142,685

-39

 

 

RBOB

333,819

308,870

316,817

-7,947

 

 

HSC Basis

753,191

745,338

742,749

2,589

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/28/18

 

 

 

12/22/23

12/15/23

Net Change

% Change

12/23/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

805

834

-29

-3.48%

747

7.76%

753

6.88%

 

 

Midwest

985

1,021

-36

-3.53%

899

9.57%

899

9.61%

 

 

Mountain

232

236

-4

-1.69%

166

39.76%

174

33.33%

 

 

Pacific

280

283

-3

-1.06%

165

69.70%

232

20.69%

 

 

South

1,187

1,203

-16

-1.33%

1,136

4.49%

1,081

9.79%

 

 

    Salt

329

331

-2

-0.60%

323

1.86%

318

3.33%

 

 

    Non_Salt

858

872

-14

-1.61%

813

5.54%

763

12.48%

 

 

Total

3,490

3,577

-87

-2.43%

3,112

12.15%

3,139

11.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/3/24

1/2/24

% Change

Change

12/4/23

% Change

1/4/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$51.44

$49.38

4.17%

$2.06

$52.25

-1.56%

$100.15

-48.64%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$67.36

$66.66

1.05%

$0.70

$82.68

-18.53%

$75.81

-11.15%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$58.00

$50.00

16.00%

$8.00

$54.35

6.71%

$91.25

-36.44%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$43.71

$41.92

4.26%

$1.79

$47.34

-7.67%

$87.58

-50.10%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$79.02

$80.54

-1.89%

-$1.52

$104.79

-24.59%

$190.71

-58.56%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$92.00

$88.90

3.49%

$3.10

$104.61

-12.05%

$116.16

-20.80%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$64.87

$66.07

-1.81%

-$1.20

$79.87

-18.78%

$145.11

-55.30%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/3/24

1/2/24

% Change

Change

12/4/23

% Change

1/4/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$2.668

$2.568

3.89%

$0.10

$2.65

0.64%

$4.83

-44.78%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.178

-$0.176

1.37%

$0.00

$0.27

-165.06%

-$0.09

96.91%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$0.282

$0.212

-24.70%

$0.07

$0.59

-52.35%

$0.88

-68.02%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.542

-$0.487

-11.23%

-$0.05

-$0.03

1567.08%

-$0.36

49.75%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$6.500

$6.601

-1.53%

-$0.10

$8.78

-26.00%

$20.49

-68.27%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$1.102

-$1.064

3.54%

-$0.04

-$0.84

31.78%

-$1.35

-18.62%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$1.532

$1.121

36.66%

$0.41

$2.03

-24.61%

$2.65

-42.28%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/3/24

1/2/24

% Change

Change

12/4/23

% Change

1/4/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.694

$0.685

1.25%

$0.01

$0.69

0.53%

$0.83

-16.55%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.696

$0.690

0.88%

$0.01

$0.69

1.05%

$0.85

-17.86%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.194

$0.190

1.93%

$0.00

$0.21

-6.08%

$0.28

-30.00%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.445

$1.410

2.48%

$0.03

$1.47

-2.03%

$1.43

1.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$0.997

$0.989

0.81%

$0.01

$0.94

5.72%

$0.98

1.58%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.629

$6.633

-0.05%

$0.00

$6.49

2.16%

$5.53

19.86%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$6.209

$6.190

0.31%

$0.02

$5.87

5.79%

$5.21

19.30%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/3/24

1/2/24

% Change

Change

12/4/23

% Change

1/4/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-24

$72.70

$70.38

3.19%

$2.32

$73.32

-0.85%

$71.66

1.45%

 

 

Brent

Feb-24

$78.31

$75.91

3.06%

$2.39

$78.03

0.35%

$75.65

3.51%

 

 

WCS

Feb-24

-$19.08

-$20.47

-7.29%

$1.39

-$19.72

-3.22%

-$23.99

-20.47%

 

 

LLS

Feb-24

$75.37

$73.76

2.13%

$1.61

$75.99

-0.82%

$72.09

4.55%

 

 

Mars

Feb-24

$73.71

$71.48

3.02%

$2.23

$73.07

0.88%

$68.11

8.22%

 

 

Sour

Feb-24

$73.20

$70.94

3.09%

$2.26

$73.63

-0.58%

$67.89

7.82%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-24

$76.31

$73.91

3.14%

$2.39

$76.03

0.36%

$73.13

4.34%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/3/24

1/2/24

% Change

Change

12/4/23

% Change

1/4/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.60

$2.53

3.05%

$0.08

$2.63

-1.14%

$2.59

0.58%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.17

$2.10

3.34%

$0.07

$2.14

1.07%

$2.09

3.88%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.07

$2.00

3.51%

$0.07

$2.04

1.13%

$1.99

4.08%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.43

$2.36

3.09%

$0.07

$2.63

-7.39%

$2.34

4.11%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.53

$1.52

0.66%

$0.01

$1.74

-11.78%

$2.13

-27.83%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$715.64

$693.22

3.23%

$22.42

$721.01

-0.75%

$681.84

4.96%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$95.25

$97.54

-2.35%

-$2.29

$100.89

-5.59%

$92.48

2.99%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/3/24

1/2/24

% Change

Change

12/4/23

% Change

1/4/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

69.12%

73.24%

-5.63%

-4.12%

61.79%

11.86%

62.31%

10.93%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

98.18%

101.33%

-3.11%

-3.15%

75.58%

29.90%

88.14%

11.39%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

78.38%

83.59%

-6.23%

-5.21%

65.19%

20.23%

70.08%

11.84%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

75.83%

77.65%

-2.34%

-1.82%

60.80%

24.72%

58.43%

29.78%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

77.53%

79.41%

-2.37%

-1.88%

78.05%

-0.67%

61.65%

25.76%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

278.60%

74.18%

275.57%

204.42%

59.58%

367.61%

62.77%

343.84%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

78.69%

86.92%

-9.47%

-8.23%

138.29%

-43.10%

92.06%

-14.52%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/3/24

1/2/24

% Change

Change

12/4/23

% Change

1/4/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 33.06

EUR 30.27

9.19%

EUR 2.78

EUR 40.97

-19.33%

EUR 75.81

-56.40%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 82.29

GBP 76.00

8.28%

GBP 6.29

GBP 103.51

-20.50%

GBP 199.08

-58.67%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 95.00

EUR 90.72

4.72%

EUR 4.28

EUR 105.20

-9.69%

EUR 251.13

-62.17%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 81.02

GBP 80.03

1.24%

GBP 1.00

GBP 98.23

-17.52%

GBP 198.54

-59.19%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 94.27

EUR 85.95

9.68%

EUR 8.32

EUR 110.56

-14.74%

EUR 369.76

-74.51%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 105.16

EUR 107.22

-1.92%

-EUR 2.06

EUR 124.44

-15.49%

EUR 224.63

-53.19%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$11.42

$11.18

2.17%

$0.24

$14.45

-20.99%

$24.60

-53.58%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/3/24

1/2/24

% Change

Change

12/4/23

% Change

1/4/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$33.06

$30.27

9.19%

$2.78

$40.97

-19.33%

$75.81

-56.40%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$82.29

$76.00

8.28%

$6.29

$103.51

-20.50%

$199.08

-58.67%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$95.00

$90.72

4.72%

$4.28

$105.20

-9.69%

$251.13

-62.17%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$81.02

$80.03

1.24%

$1.00

$98.23

-17.52%

$198.54

-59.19%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$94.27

$85.95

9.68%

$8.32

$110.56

-14.74%

$369.76

-74.51%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$105.16

$107.22

-1.92%

-$2.06

$124.44

-15.49%

$224.63

-53.19%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$11.42

$11.18

2.17%

$0.24

$14.45

-20.99%

$24.60

-53.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

-1

3

2,053

90

-152

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

85

-93

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

1

-1

1

2,940

491

18

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

1

0

1

1,306

90

-164

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

183

-84

-91

2,081

-342

-66

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

179

-68

-89

1,894

-261

-162

-12.00%

-8.00%

 

 

E N Central

173

-107

-117

2,050

-381

-309

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

W N Central

206

-99

-107

2,136

-515

-507

-19.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

94

-45

-94

946

-117

-157

-11.00%

-14.00%

 

 

E S Central

134

-45

-83

1,180

-204

-218

-15.00%

-16.00%

 

 

W S Central

125

-6

-30

796

-90

-141

-10.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Mountain

210

-8

21

1,818

-298

-296

-14.00%

-14.00%

 

 

Pacific

109

-24

5

1,003

-231

-228

-19.00%

-19.00%

 

 

United States

147

-54

-67

1,460

-250

-224

-15.00%

-13.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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