Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-05-2024

Jan 5, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:49 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.703

$2.821

-4.18%

-$0.118

32,467

 

 

WTI

$73.09

$72.19

1.25%

$0.90

71,726

 

 

Brent

$78.34

$77.59

0.97%

$0.75

6,863

 

 

ULSD

$2.598

$2.588

0.36%

$0.009

4,156

 

 

RBOB

$2.119

$2.110

0.40%

$0.008

4,416

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.12

$5.23

-2.10%

-$0.11

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$22.69

$23.17

-2.07%

-$0.48

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$51.88

$45.40

14.28%

$6.48

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

12/29/24

622

2

-157

12/31/23

 

 

Canada

12/29/24

86

-60

2

12/31/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/26/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

93,262

92,654

92,994

-340

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,889

83,462

83,706

-244

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

400,999

377,797

390,703

-12,906

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

148,056

128,059

115,285

12,774

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,261

124,004

124,650

-646

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,035

39,422

39,299

123

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

143,008

142,646

142,685

-39

 

 

RBOB

333,819

308,870

316,817

-7,947

 

 

HSC Basis

753,191

745,338

742,749

2,589

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/04/19

 

 

 

12/29/23

12/22/23

Net Change

% Change

12/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

799

805

-6

-0.75%

691

15.63%

726

10.06%

 

 

Midwest

968

985

-17

-1.73%

839

15.38%

861

12.48%

 

 

Mountain

228

232

-4

-1.72%

157

45.22%

165

38.52%

 

 

Pacific

280

280

0

0.00%

165

69.70%

223

25.67%

 

 

South

1,201

1,187

14

1.18%

1,040

15.48%

1,062

13.13%

 

 

    Salt

344

329

15

4.56%

270

27.41%

315

9.21%

 

 

    Non_Salt

857

858

-1

-0.12%

770

11.30%

747

14.79%

 

 

Total

3,476

3,490

-14

-0.40%

2,891

20.24%

3,036

14.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/24

1/3/24

% Change

Change

12/5/23

% Change

1/5/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$57.68

$51.44

12.14%

$6.25

$53.65

7.52%

$96.79

-40.41%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$86.07

$67.36

27.79%

$18.72

$84.56

1.79%

$67.45

27.62%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$63.50

$58.00

9.48%

$5.50

$56.29

12.80%

$90.78

-30.05%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$49.39

$43.71

12.99%

$5.68

$48.74

1.33%

$84.82

-41.78%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$91.12

$79.02

15.31%

$12.10

$106.39

-14.35%

$179.27

-49.17%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$105.00

$92.00

14.13%

$13.00

$107.82

-2.62%

$117.95

-10.98%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$74.07

$64.87

14.19%

$9.20

$79.53

-6.86%

$139.07

-46.74%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/24

1/3/24

% Change

Change

12/5/23

% Change

1/5/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$2.821

$2.668

5.73%

$0.15

$2.67

5.77%

$4.61

-38.81%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.124

-$0.178

-30.47%

$0.05

$0.25

-149.15%

-$0.07

81.67%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$0.471

$0.282

-40.22%

$0.19

$0.57

-16.61%

$0.87

-45.53%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.430

-$0.542

-20.60%

$0.11

-$0.06

568.01%

-$0.26

65.78%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$6.810

$6.500

4.76%

$0.31

$9.13

-25.42%

$19.35

-64.81%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$1.020

-$1.102

-7.49%

$0.08

-$0.85

20.45%

-$1.29

-20.81%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$2.573

$1.532

67.94%

$1.04

$1.93

33.19%

$2.47

4.22%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/24

1/3/24

% Change

Change

12/5/23

% Change

1/5/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.688

$0.694

-0.88%

-$0.01

$0.68

1.29%

$0.81

-15.38%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.693

$0.696

-0.52%

$0.00

$0.70

-1.42%

$0.84

-17.85%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.200

$0.194

3.20%

$0.01

$0.21

-4.77%

$0.29

-31.27%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.430

$1.445

-1.03%

-$0.01

$1.51

-5.02%

$1.45

-1.25%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$0.996

$0.997

-0.10%

$0.00

$0.96

3.81%

$0.97

2.47%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.414

$6.629

-3.26%

-$0.22

$6.38

0.53%

$5.50

16.57%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$6.000

$6.209

-3.38%

-$0.21

$5.80

3.45%

$5.34

12.28%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/24

1/3/24

% Change

Change

12/5/23

% Change

1/5/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-24

$72.19

$72.70

-0.71%

-$0.51

$72.53

-0.47%

$72.27

-0.11%

 

 

Brent

Feb-24

$77.68

$78.31

-0.81%

-$0.63

$77.20

0.62%

$76.25

1.87%

 

 

WCS

Feb-24

-$18.31

-$19.08

-4.19%

$0.77

-$19.49

-6.05%

-$22.70

-19.31%

 

 

LLS

Feb-24

$74.65

$75.37

-0.96%

-$0.72

$75.29

-0.84%

$74.07

0.78%

 

 

Mars

Feb-24

$72.61

$73.71

-1.51%

-$1.10

$72.47

0.20%

$69.81

4.01%

 

 

Sour

Feb-24

$72.84

$73.20

-0.50%

-$0.36

$72.54

0.42%

$72.44

0.55%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-24

$75.68

$76.31

-0.83%

-$0.63

$75.20

0.63%

$73.83

2.50%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/24

1/3/24

% Change

Change

12/5/23

% Change

1/5/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.59

$2.60

-0.58%

-$0.02

$2.60

-0.46%

$2.63

-1.75%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.11

$2.17

-2.49%

-$0.05

$2.11

0.09%

$2.10

0.48%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.01

$2.07

-2.61%

-$0.05

$2.01

0.10%

$2.00

0.50%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.42

$2.43

-0.49%

-$0.01

$2.36

2.54%

$2.38

1.55%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.57

$1.53

2.28%

$0.04

$1.74

-9.67%

$2.12

-25.94%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$699.56

$715.64

-2.25%

-$16.08

$716.50

-2.36%

$707.28

-1.09%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$98.57

$95.25

3.49%

$3.32

$99.53

-0.96%

$93.66

5.24%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/24

1/3/24

% Change

Change

12/5/23

% Change

1/5/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

67.95%

69.12%

-1.69%

-1.17%

65.42%

3.87%

73.49%

-7.54%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

86.15%

98.18%

-12.25%

-12.03%

78.44%

9.83%

95.57%

-9.86%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

92.20%

78.38%

17.63%

13.82%

68.69%

34.23%

78.33%

17.71%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

85.70%

75.83%

13.02%

9.87%

64.25%

33.39%

69.51%

23.29%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

76.75%

77.53%

-1.01%

-0.78%

79.96%

-4.01%

61.90%

23.99%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

287.82%

278.60%

3.31%

9.22%

75.57%

280.87%

60.30%

377.31%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

104.63%

78.69%

32.96%

25.94%

179.02%

-41.55%

91.54%

14.30%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/24

1/3/24

% Change

Change

12/5/23

% Change

1/5/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 33.78

EUR 33.06

2.21%

EUR 0.73

EUR 38.53

-12.32%

EUR 78.86

-57.16%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 85.15

GBP 82.29

3.47%

GBP 2.86

GBP 98.09

-13.20%

GBP 207.63

-58.99%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 97.36

EUR 95.00

2.49%

EUR 2.36

EUR 100.33

-2.96%

EUR 244.01

-60.10%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 86.93

GBP 81.02

7.29%

GBP 5.91

GBP 92.33

-5.85%

GBP 201.97

-56.96%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 97.15

EUR 94.27

3.06%

EUR 2.88

EUR 104.51

-7.04%

EUR 364.40

-73.34%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 112.42

EUR 105.16

6.91%

EUR 7.26

EUR 118.42

-5.06%

EUR 218.16

-48.47%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$11.72

$11.42

2.59%

$0.30

$13.84

-15.37%

$24.94

-53.03%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/4/24

1/3/24

% Change

Change

12/5/23

% Change

1/5/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$33.78

$33.06

2.21%

$0.73

$38.53

-12.32%

$78.86

-57.16%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$85.15

$82.29

3.47%

$2.86

$98.09

-13.20%

$207.63

-58.99%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$97.36

$95.00

2.49%

$2.36

$100.33

-2.96%

$244.01

-60.10%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$86.93

$81.02

7.29%

$5.91

$92.33

-5.85%

$201.97

-56.96%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$97.15

$94.27

3.06%

$2.88

$104.51

-7.04%

$364.40

-73.34%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$112.42

$105.16

6.91%

$7.26

$118.42

-5.06%

$218.16

-48.47%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$11.72

$11.42

2.59%

$0.30

$13.84

-15.37%

$24.94

-53.03%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

-1

3

2,053

90

-152

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

85

-93

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

1

-1

1

2,940

491

18

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

1

0

1

1,306

90

-164

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

183

-84

-91

2,081

-342

-66

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

179

-68

-89

1,894

-261

-162

-12.00%

-8.00%

 

 

E N Central

173

-107

-117

2,050

-381

-309

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

W N Central

206

-99

-107

2,136

-515

-507

-19.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

94

-45

-94

946

-117

-157

-11.00%

-14.00%

 

 

E S Central

134

-45

-83

1,180

-204

-218

-15.00%

-16.00%

 

 

W S Central

125

-6

-30

796

-90

-141

-10.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Mountain

210

-8

21

1,818

-298

-296

-14.00%

-14.00%

 

 

Pacific

109

-24

5

1,003

-231

-228

-19.00%

-19.00%

 

 

United States

147

-54

-67

1,460

-250

-224

-15.00%

-13.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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