Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-07-2025

Jan 7, 2025

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:17 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.554

$3.672

-3.21%

-$0.118

50,457

 

 

WTI

$73.96

$73.56

0.54%

$0.40

82,333

 

 

Brent

$76.83

$76.30

0.69%

$0.53

14,400

 

 

ULSD

$2.358

$2.355

0.10%

$0.002

7,983

 

 

RBOB

$2.030

$2.036

-0.28%

-$0.006

8,272

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.47

$3.38

2.66%

$0.09

Mar-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.07

$17.39

-1.86%

-$0.32

Feb-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$48.94

$44.29

10.49%

$4.65

Feb-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/03/25

589

0

-32

01/06/24

 

 

Canada

01/03/25

94

-1

-31

01/06/24

 

 

International

Dec

909

-10

-46

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 12/24/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

92,680

92,290

92,233

57

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,476

85,383

84,516

867

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

336,524

323,144

322,730

414

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

166,999

144,300

138,007

6,293

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

158,344

151,649

151,314

335

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,361

34,396

34,970

-574

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

143,760

142,869

143,439

-570

 

 

RBOB

377,350

354,966

356,151

-1,185

 

 

HSC Basis

878,140

868,117

868,052

65

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

12/27/19

 

 

 

12/27/24

12/20/24

Net Change

% Change

12/29/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

745

792

-47

-5.93%

799

-6.76%

759

-1.79%

 

 

Midwest

914

960

-46

-4.79%

968

-5.58%

906

0.93%

 

 

Mountain

262

267

-5

-1.87%

228

14.91%

185

41.47%

 

 

Pacific

295

293

2

0.68%

280

5.36%

239

23.22%

 

 

South

1,197

1,217

-20

-1.64%

1,201

-0.33%

1,128

6.12%

 

 

    Salt

349

349

0

0.00%

344

1.45%

321

8.59%

 

 

    Non_Salt

848

868

-20

-2.30%

857

-1.05%

807

5.13%

 

 

Total

3,413

3,529

-116

-3.29%

3,476

-1.81%

3,217

6.10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/6/25

1/3/25

% Change

Change

12/5/24

% Change

1/5/24

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-25

$56.51

$52.15

8.36%

$4.36

$51.34

10.08%

$59.03

-4.26%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-25

$60.11

$53.98

11.36%

$6.13

$64.09

-6.21%

$80.12

-24.97%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-25

$36.75

$35.75

2.80%

$1.00

$36.11

1.78%

$64.04

-42.61%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-25

$49.44

$45.56

8.51%

$3.88

$44.81

10.32%

$52.16

-5.21%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-25

$106.04

$95.72

10.78%

$10.32

$95.70

10.80%

$109.11

-2.82%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-25

$61.75

$54.31

13.71%

$7.44

$57.00

8.33%

$94.88

-34.92%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-25

$91.17

$81.34

12.08%

$9.83

$77.23

18.06%

$88.95

2.50%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/6/25

1/3/25

% Change

Change

12/5/24

% Change

1/5/24

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-25

$3.672

$3.354

9.48%

$0.32

$2.95

24.31%

$3.84

-4.35%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-25

-$0.039

$0.012

-424.37%

-$0.05

-$0.08

-53.10%

$0.19

-120.81%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-25

$0.761

$0.836

9.80%

-$0.07

$0.66

14.97%

$0.82

-7.30%

 

 

Waha

Feb-25

-$0.924

-$0.572

-61.63%

-$0.35

-$0.60

54.46%

-$0.07

1310.23%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-25

$8.429

$8.147

3.46%

$0.28

$7.49

12.56%

$7.59

11.04%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-25

-$2.236

-$2.171

2.99%

-$0.07

-$1.50

49.04%

-$1.16

92.24%

 

 

Socal

Feb-25

$0.464

$0.459

1.00%

$0.00

$0.87

-46.43%

$2.57

-81.94%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/6/25

1/3/25

% Change

Change

12/5/24

% Change

1/5/24

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-25

$0.872

$0.860

1.46%

$0.01

$0.78

11.30%

$0.72

21.10%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-25

$0.872

$0.861

1.31%

$0.01

$0.80

9.73%

$0.72

20.54%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-25

$0.270

$0.264

2.31%

$0.01

$0.21

26.66%

$0.26

5.22%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-25

$1.550

$1.543

0.49%

$0.01

$1.44

7.64%

$1.39

11.18%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-25

$1.133

$1.128

0.40%

$0.00

$1.00

12.84%

$0.87

29.86%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-25

$6.161

$6.229

-1.09%

-$0.07

$6.06

1.67%

$5.77

6.69%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-25

$6.300

$6.270

0.48%

$0.03

$6.15

2.44%

$5.42

16.19%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/6/25

1/3/25

% Change

Change

12/5/24

% Change

1/5/24

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-25

$73.56

$73.96

-0.54%

-$0.40

$67.96

8.24%

$70.83

3.85%

 

 

Brent

Feb-25

$76.56

$76.77

-0.27%

-$0.21

$72.09

6.20%

$75.59

1.28%

 

 

WCS

Feb-25

-$12.16

-$12.17

-0.12%

$0.02

-$13.10

-7.19%

-$15.20

-20.01%

 

 

LLS

Feb-25

$75.13

$74.44

0.92%

$0.69

$70.08

7.20%

$72.78

3.24%

 

 

Mars

Feb-25

$73.11

$72.50

0.84%

$0.61

$67.48

8.34%

$69.59

5.06%

 

 

Sour

Feb-25

$73.26

$72.66

0.83%

$0.61

$68.25

7.34%

$70.54

3.85%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-25

$74.56

$74.77

-0.28%

-$0.21

$70.09

6.38%

$73.59

1.32%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/6/25

1/3/25

% Change

Change

12/5/24

% Change

1/5/24

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-25

$2.36

$2.35

0.13%

$0.00

$2.17

8.82%

$2.42

-2.76%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-25

$2.05

$2.05

-0.05%

$0.00

$1.95

5.45%

$1.99

3.06%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-25

$1.95

$1.95

-0.05%

$0.00

$1.85

5.74%

$1.89

3.23%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-25

$2.24

$2.24

0.18%

$0.00

$2.02

10.84%

$2.25

-0.36%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-25

$1.68

$1.67

0.78%

$0.01

$1.57

6.99%

$1.57

7.54%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-25

$659.18

$658.02

0.18%

$1.15

$613.78

7.40%

$665.98

-1.02%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-25

$90.11

$89.90

0.23%

$0.21

$85.80

5.02%

$91.78

-1.82%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/6/25

1/3/25

% Change

Change

12/5/24

% Change

1/5/24

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-25

68.17%

88.94%

-23.35%

-20.77%

66.86%

1.96%

48.14%

41.61%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-25

98.43%

125.19%

-21.38%

-26.76%

82.68%

19.05%

65.07%

51.27%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-25

49.14%

70.86%

-30.65%

-21.72%

62.76%

-21.70%

49.58%

-0.89%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-25

55.76%

81.99%

-31.99%

-26.23%

64.98%

-14.19%

46.14%

20.85%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-25

100.08%

98.72%

1.38%

1.36%

89.58%

11.72%

41.30%

142.32%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-25

244.33%

224.72%

8.73%

19.61%

275.71%

-11.38%

25.79%

847.38%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-25

108.43%

82.90%

30.80%

25.53%

83.87%

29.28%

24.91%

335.29%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/6/25

1/3/25

% Change

Change

12/5/24

% Change

1/5/24

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-25

EUR 47.21

EUR 50.17

-5.90%

-EUR 2.96

EUR 46.55

1.42%

EUR 39.20

20.45%

 

 

NBP

Feb-25

GBP 117.56

GBP 124.10

-5.27%

-GBP 6.54

GBP 116.70

0.74%

GBP 102.61

14.57%

 

 

German Base

Feb-25

EUR 108.17

EUR 112.32

-3.69%

-EUR 4.14

EUR 112.63

-3.95%

EUR 107.36

0.76%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-25

GBP 102.60

GBP 103.10

-0.48%

-GBP 0.50

GBP 98.00

4.70%

GBP 97.60

5.13%

 

 

French Base

Feb-25

EUR 102.71

EUR 105.31

-2.47%

-EUR 2.60

EUR 110.39

-6.95%

EUR 109.64

-6.32%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-25

EUR 138.21

EUR 142.24

-2.83%

-EUR 4.03

EUR 132.16

4.57%

EUR 119.52

15.64%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-25

$14.12

$14.69

-3.90%

-$0.57

$14.70

-3.95%

$14.06

0.44%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/6/25

1/3/25

% Change

Change

12/5/24

% Change

1/5/24

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-25

$47.21

$50.17

-5.90%

-$2.96

$46.55

1.42%

$39.20

20.45%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-25

$117.56

$124.10

-5.27%

-$6.54

$116.70

0.74%

$102.61

14.57%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-25

$108.17

$112.32

-3.69%

-$4.14

$112.63

-3.95%

$107.36

0.76%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-25

$102.60

$103.10

-0.48%

-$0.50

$98.00

4.70%

$97.60

5.13%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-25

$102.71

$105.31

-2.47%

-$2.60

$110.39

-6.95%

$109.64

-6.32%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-25

$138.21

$142.24

-2.83%

-$4.03

$132.16

4.57%

$119.52

15.64%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-25

$14.12

$14.69

-3.90%

-$0.57

$14.70

-3.95%

$14.06

0.44%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/04/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

564

147

14

35.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

765

109

67

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

779

70

115

10.00%

17.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

6

-1

6

2,185

220

131

11.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,827

279

196

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

1

-1

1

2,861

411

-80

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,424

181

171

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

906

202

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

1

1,401

184

96

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/04/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

200

-73

-17

2,369

-250

122

-10.00%

5.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

206

-48

-5

2,094

-243

42

-10.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

233

-54

3

2,220

-417

0

-16.00%

0.00%

 

 

W N Central

260

-51

9

2,352

-522

31

-18.00%

1.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

109

-33

-30

1,012

-153

-36

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E S Central

140

-43

-51

1,209

-306

-107

-20.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

85

-49

-57

656

-326

-241

-33.00%

-27.00%

 

 

Mountain

186

-34

-17

1,916

-357

-52

-16.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Pacific

116

-17

-9

1,163

-166

65

-12.00%

6.00%

 

 

United States

163

-42

-18

1,574

-282

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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