Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-08-2024

Jan 8, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:07 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.764

$2.893

-4.46%

-$0.129

41,256

 

 

WTI

$71.32

$73.81

-3.37%

-$2.49

118,822

 

 

Brent

$76.34

$78.76

-3.07%

-$2.42

9,831

 

 

ULSD

$2.562

$2.609

-1.78%

-$0.047

8,821

 

 

RBOB

$2.041

$2.105

-3.08%

-$0.065

8,277

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.87

$4.90

-0.61%

-$0.03

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$21.79

$21.88

-0.42%

-$0.09

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$54.81

$51.49

6.44%

$3.32

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/05/24

621

-1

-151

01/06/23

 

 

Canada

01/05/24

125

39

-64

01/06/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,315

94,826

95,047

-221

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,667

84,363

84,492

-129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

382,555

360,814

372,696

-11,882

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

283,498

238,206

202,629

35,577

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,813

113,830

114,262

-432

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,338

36,574

36,671

-97

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,234

145,771

145,885

-114

 

 

RBOB

333,947

310,606

317,816

-7,210

 

 

HSC Basis

766,237

755,702

755,475

227

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/04/19

 

 

 

12/29/23

12/22/23

Net Change

% Change

12/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

799

805

-6

-0.75%

691

15.63%

726

10.06%

 

 

Midwest

968

985

-17

-1.73%

839

15.38%

861

12.48%

 

 

Mountain

228

232

-4

-1.72%

157

45.22%

165

38.52%

 

 

Pacific

280

280

0

0.00%

165

69.70%

223

25.67%

 

 

South

1,201

1,187

14

1.18%

1,040

15.48%

1,062

13.13%

 

 

    Salt

344

329

15

4.56%

270

27.41%

315

9.21%

 

 

    Non_Salt

857

858

-1

-0.12%

770

11.30%

747

14.79%

 

 

Total

3,476

3,490

-14

-0.40%

2,891

20.24%

3,036

14.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/5/24

1/4/24

% Change

Change

12/6/23

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$60.71

$57.68

5.25%

$3.03

$52.55

15.54%

$93.45

-35.04%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$94.73

$86.07

10.05%

$8.65

$82.38

14.99%

$72.07

31.45%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$72.50

$63.50

14.17%

$9.00

$50.11

44.68%

$89.89

-19.35%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$52.06

$49.39

5.42%

$2.67

$46.97

10.83%

$81.64

-36.23%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$90.39

$91.12

-0.80%

-$0.73

$102.27

-11.62%

$180.71

-49.98%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$106.50

$105.00

1.43%

$1.51

$103.07

3.33%

$121.39

-12.27%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$81.75

$74.07

10.36%

$7.68

$76.48

6.89%

$141.54

-42.24%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/5/24

1/4/24

% Change

Change

12/6/23

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$2.886

$2.821

2.30%

$0.06

$2.52

14.66%

$4.58

-37.01%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.028

-$0.124

-77.08%

$0.10

$0.25

-111.18%

-$0.12

-75.99%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$0.894

$0.471

-47.26%

$0.42

$0.61

45.86%

$0.92

-3.05%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.061

-$0.430

-85.73%

$0.37

-$0.10

-38.23%

-$0.29

-78.90%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$6.434

$6.810

-5.51%

-$0.38

$10.01

-35.71%

$17.75

-63.74%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$0.884

-$1.020

-13.30%

$0.14

-$0.82

7.15%

-$1.24

-28.67%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$3.821

$2.573

48.46%

$1.25

$1.71

123.92%

$2.98

28.40%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/5/24

1/4/24

% Change

Change

12/6/23

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.700

$0.688

1.79%

$0.01

$0.66

6.04%

$0.82

-14.29%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.705

$0.693

1.78%

$0.01

$0.66

6.40%

$0.82

-14.14%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.206

$0.200

3.16%

$0.01

$0.20

2.90%

$0.27

-24.41%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.453

$1.430

1.59%

$0.02

$1.43

1.35%

$1.46

-0.82%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$0.997

$0.996

0.08%

$0.00

$0.92

8.24%

$0.98

1.94%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.420

$6.414

0.10%

$0.01

$6.33

1.44%

$5.45

17.77%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$6.060

$6.000

1.00%

$0.06

$5.84

3.77%

$5.11

18.54%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/5/24

1/4/24

% Change

Change

12/6/23

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-24

$73.81

$72.19

2.19%

$1.62

$69.65

5.97%

$72.48

1.83%

 

 

Brent

Feb-24

$78.87

$77.68

1.51%

$1.19

$74.30

6.15%

$76.44

3.18%

 

 

WCS

Feb-24

-$18.42

-$18.31

0.55%

-$0.10

-$20.03

-8.07%

-$23.43

-21.41%

 

 

LLS

Feb-24

$76.23

$74.65

2.07%

$1.58

$72.42

5.26%

$75.63

0.79%

 

 

Mars

Feb-24

$74.08

$72.61

1.98%

$1.46

$70.06

5.73%

$71.32

3.87%

 

 

Sour

Feb-24

$74.20

$72.84

1.83%

$1.36

$70.13

5.80%

$70.24

5.64%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-24

$76.87

$75.68

1.55%

$1.19

$72.30

6.32%

$74.88

2.66%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/5/24

1/4/24

% Change

Change

12/6/23

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.61

$2.59

0.93%

$0.02

$2.54

2.84%

$2.63

-0.76%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.13

$2.11

0.80%

$0.02

$2.13

0.09%

$2.08

2.40%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.03

$2.01

0.84%

$0.02

$2.03

0.10%

$1.98

2.53%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.44

$2.42

0.74%

$0.02

$2.32

5.31%

$2.37

2.87%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.59

$1.57

1.27%

$0.02

$1.70

-6.31%

$2.05

-22.36%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$712.30

$699.56

1.82%

$12.74

$693.28

2.74%

$702.23

1.43%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$98.00

$98.57

-0.57%

-$0.57

$97.94

0.06%

$93.45

4.87%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/5/24

1/4/24

% Change

Change

12/6/23

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

76.20%

67.95%

12.14%

8.25%

69.70%

9.33%

65.63%

16.11%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

100.69%

86.15%

16.88%

14.54%

85.74%

17.44%

102.09%

-1.37%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

122.47%

92.20%

32.83%

30.27%

71.51%

71.26%

76.97%

59.11%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

112.10%

85.70%

30.81%

26.40%

68.63%

63.34%

62.79%

78.53%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

96.92%

76.75%

26.28%

20.17%

79.33%

22.17%

61.90%

56.58%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

221.67%

287.82%

-22.98%

-66.15%

60.07%

269.02%

61.39%

261.08%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

144.51%

104.63%

38.12%

39.88%

141.48%

2.14%

90.57%

59.56%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/5/24

1/4/24

% Change

Change

12/6/23

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 34.28

EUR 33.78

1.45%

EUR 0.49

EUR 39.81

-13.91%

EUR 81.13

-57.75%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 86.04

GBP 85.15

1.05%

GBP 0.89

GBP 100.48

-14.37%

GBP 211.51

-59.32%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 97.54

EUR 97.36

0.18%

EUR 0.18

EUR 102.92

-5.22%

EUR 251.14

-61.16%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 87.29

GBP 86.93

0.41%

GBP 0.36

GBP 97.02

-10.03%

GBP 202.98

-57.00%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 97.59

EUR 97.15

0.45%

EUR 0.44

EUR 106.81

-8.63%

EUR 358.53

-72.78%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 110.47

EUR 112.42

-1.74%

-EUR 1.95

EUR 118.02

-6.40%

EUR 224.06

-50.70%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$11.90

$11.72

1.55%

$0.18

$14.10

-15.66%

$24.70

-51.85%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/5/24

1/4/24

% Change

Change

12/6/23

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$34.28

$33.78

1.45%

$0.49

$39.81

-13.91%

$81.13

-57.75%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$86.04

$85.15

1.05%

$0.89

$100.48

-14.37%

$211.51

-59.32%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$97.54

$97.36

0.18%

$0.18

$102.92

-5.22%

$251.14

-61.16%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$87.29

$86.93

0.41%

$0.36

$97.02

-10.03%

$202.98

-57.00%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$97.59

$97.15

0.45%

$0.44

$106.81

-8.63%

$358.53

-72.78%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$110.47

$112.42

-1.74%

-$1.95

$118.02

-6.40%

$224.06

-50.70%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$11.90

$11.72

1.55%

$0.18

$14.10

-15.66%

$24.70

-51.85%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-6

-10

2,053

89

-153

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

-1

1,632

85

-93

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-8

2,940

491

18

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-3

1,306

90

-164

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

247

-29

71

2,327

-372

4

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

230

-26

92

2,124

-287

-70

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

243

-47

62

2,293

-428

-247

-16.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

259

-54

24

2,395

-569

-483

-19.00%

-17.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

145

2

86

1,091

-115

-71

-10.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

193

8

119

1,373

-196

-100

-12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W S Central

142

7

84

937

-84

-56

-8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

215

-5

5

2,033

-302

-292

-13.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

134

1

-1

1,137

-230

-229

-17.00%

-17.00%

 

 

United States

191

-15

61

1,651

-265

-163

-14.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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