Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-09-2024

Jan 9, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:39 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.163

$2.980

6.14%

$0.183

71,761

 

 

WTI

$72.12

$70.77

1.91%

$1.35

131,404

 

 

Brent

$77.48

$76.12

1.79%

$1.36

10,942

 

 

ULSD

$2.628

$2.577

1.98%

$0.051

14,672

 

 

RBOB

$2.075

$2.028

2.34%

$0.047

8,747

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.26

$5.20

1.15%

$0.06

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$22.70

$22.12

2.63%

$0.58

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$57.08

$54.33

5.06%

$2.75

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/05/24

621

-1

-151

01/06/23

 

 

Canada

01/05/24

125

39

-64

01/06/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,315

94,826

95,047

-221

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,667

84,363

84,492

-129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

382,555

360,814

372,696

-11,882

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

283,498

238,206

202,629

35,577

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,813

113,830

114,262

-432

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,338

36,574

36,671

-97

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,234

145,771

145,885

-114

 

 

RBOB

333,947

310,606

317,816

-7,210

 

 

HSC Basis

766,237

755,702

755,475

227

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/04/19

 

 

 

12/29/23

12/22/23

Net Change

% Change

12/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

799

805

-6

-0.75%

691

15.63%

726

10.06%

 

 

Midwest

968

985

-17

-1.73%

839

15.38%

861

12.48%

 

 

Mountain

228

232

-4

-1.72%

157

45.22%

165

38.52%

 

 

Pacific

280

280

0

0.00%

165

69.70%

223

25.67%

 

 

South

1,201

1,187

14

1.18%

1,040

15.48%

1,062

13.13%

 

 

    Salt

344

329

15

4.56%

270

27.41%

315

9.21%

 

 

    Non_Salt

857

858

-1

-0.12%

770

11.30%

747

14.79%

 

 

Total

3,476

3,490

-14

-0.40%

2,891

20.24%

3,036

14.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/8/24

1/5/24

% Change

Change

12/7/23

% Change

1/9/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$63.84

$60.71

5.16%

$3.13

$51.67

23.56%

$92.70

-31.13%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$104.08

$94.73

9.87%

$9.35

$81.45

27.79%

$70.75

47.11%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$57.24

$72.50

-21.05%

-$15.26

$51.26

11.66%

$90.18

-36.53%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$56.37

$52.06

8.27%

$4.31

$45.67

23.43%

$80.75

-30.19%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$91.97

$90.39

1.74%

$1.57

$102.79

-10.53%

$170.26

-45.99%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$124.81

$106.50

17.19%

$18.30

$101.33

23.16%

$118.04

5.73%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$77.11

$81.75

-5.67%

-$4.64

$74.27

3.82%

$137.83

-44.05%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/8/24

1/5/24

% Change

Change

12/7/23

% Change

1/9/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$2.980

$2.886

3.26%

$0.09

$2.52

18.25%

$4.70

-36.66%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.014

-$0.028

-51.41%

$0.01

$0.10

-113.72%

-$0.13

-89.77%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$0.923

$0.894

-3.21%

$0.03

$0.54

72.24%

$0.94

-1.45%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.071

-$0.061

-15.96%

-$0.01

-$0.11

-35.91%

-$0.21

-65.55%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$6.830

$6.434

6.15%

$0.40

$9.01

-24.23%

$17.61

-61.21%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$0.859

-$0.884

-2.86%

$0.03

-$0.87

-1.84%

-$1.26

-31.85%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$4.704

$3.821

23.12%

$0.88

$1.73

172.14%

$2.89

62.83%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/8/24

1/5/24

% Change

Change

12/7/23

% Change

1/9/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.693

$0.700

-1.05%

-$0.01

$0.68

2.60%

$0.82

-15.55%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.684

$0.705

-2.98%

-$0.02

$0.68

0.75%

$0.83

-17.47%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.215

$0.206

4.12%

$0.01

$0.20

6.33%

$0.28

-22.40%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.398

$1.453

-3.79%

-$0.06

$1.40

-0.11%

$1.51

-7.28%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$0.951

$0.997

-4.62%

-$0.05

$0.92

3.31%

$1.01

-5.68%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.147

$6.420

-4.26%

-$0.27

$6.38

-3.64%

$5.04

22.02%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.900

$6.060

-2.64%

-$0.16

$5.80

1.73%

$5.41

9.06%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/8/24

1/5/24

% Change

Change

12/7/23

% Change

1/9/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-24

$70.77

$73.81

-4.30%

-$3.04

$69.59

1.70%

$73.50

-3.71%

 

 

Brent

Feb-24

$76.22

$78.87

-3.48%

-$2.65

$74.05

2.93%

$77.62

-1.81%

 

 

WCS

Feb-24

-$18.66

-$18.42

1.32%

-$0.25

-$20.49

-8.93%

-$22.97

-18.77%

 

 

LLS

Feb-24

$73.47

$76.23

-3.75%

-$2.76

$72.25

1.69%

$74.72

-1.67%

 

 

Mars

Feb-24

$71.48

$74.08

-3.63%

-$2.60

$70.00

2.11%

$70.38

1.57%

 

 

Sour

Feb-24

$71.31

$74.20

-4.05%

-$2.89

$70.06

1.78%

$70.21

1.56%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-24

$74.22

$76.87

-3.57%

-$2.65

$72.05

3.01%

$76.31

-2.74%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/8/24

1/5/24

% Change

Change

12/7/23

% Change

1/9/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.59

$2.61

-0.92%

-$0.02

$2.53

2.41%

$2.65

-2.56%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.01

$2.13

-5.59%

-$0.12

$2.02

-0.30%

$2.13

-5.41%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.91

$2.03

-5.86%

-$0.12

$1.92

-0.31%

$2.03

-5.68%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.45

$2.44

0.70%

$0.02

$2.27

7.96%

$2.39

2.55%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.59

$1.59

0.00%

$0.00

$1.68

-5.64%

$1.98

-19.49%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$694.40

$712.30

-2.51%

-$17.90

$688.25

0.89%

$715.77

-2.99%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$95.54

$98.00

-2.51%

-$2.46

$97.63

-2.13%

$96.69

-1.19%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/8/24

1/5/24

% Change

Change

12/7/23

% Change

1/9/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

82.18%

76.20%

7.85%

5.98%

67.14%

22.40%

61.79%

33.00%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

106.95%

100.69%

6.22%

6.26%

91.87%

16.41%

94.21%

13.52%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

127.32%

122.47%

3.96%

4.85%

68.82%

85.00%

70.13%

81.55%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

115.31%

112.10%

2.86%

3.21%

62.50%

84.50%

58.50%

97.11%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

100.75%

96.92%

3.95%

3.83%

79.93%

26.05%

61.53%

63.74%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

231.53%

221.67%

4.45%

9.86%

80.06%

189.20%

61.90%

274.04%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

174.30%

144.51%

20.61%

29.79%

189.34%

-7.94%

90.98%

91.58%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/8/24

1/5/24

% Change

Change

12/7/23

% Change

1/9/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 31.62

EUR 34.28

-7.73%

-EUR 2.65

EUR 40.76

-22.41%

EUR 88.17

-64.13%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 79.11

GBP 86.04

-8.05%

-GBP 6.93

GBP 102.51

-22.83%

GBP 222.68

-64.47%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 87.21

EUR 97.54

-10.59%

-EUR 10.33

EUR 104.91

-16.87%

EUR 240.61

-63.75%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 83.99

GBP 87.29

-3.78%

-GBP 3.30

GBP 97.89

-14.20%

GBP 207.72

-59.57%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 88.82

EUR 97.59

-8.99%

-EUR 8.77

EUR 108.49

-18.13%

EUR 343.59

-74.15%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 108.28

EUR 110.47

-1.99%

-EUR 2.19

EUR 121.62

-10.97%

EUR 237.59

-54.43%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$10.46

$11.90

-12.05%

-$1.43

$14.68

-28.72%

$25.87

-59.57%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/8/24

1/5/24

% Change

Change

12/7/23

% Change

1/9/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$31.62

$34.28

-7.73%

-$2.65

$40.76

-22.41%

$88.17

-64.13%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$79.11

$86.04

-8.05%

-$6.93

$102.51

-22.83%

$222.68

-64.47%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$87.21

$97.54

-10.59%

-$10.33

$104.91

-16.87%

$240.61

-63.75%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$83.99

$87.29

-3.78%

-$3.30

$97.89

-14.20%

$207.72

-59.57%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$88.82

$97.59

-8.99%

-$8.77

$108.49

-18.13%

$343.59

-74.15%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$108.28

$110.47

-1.99%

-$2.19

$121.62

-10.97%

$237.59

-54.43%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$10.46

$11.90

-12.05%

-$1.43

$14.68

-28.72%

$25.87

-59.57%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-6

-10

2,053

89

-153

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

-1

1,632

85

-93

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-8

2,940

491

18

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-3

1,306

90

-164

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

247

-29

71

2,327

-372

4

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

230

-26

92

2,124

-287

-70

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

243

-47

62

2,293

-428

-247

-16.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

259

-54

24

2,395

-569

-483

-19.00%

-17.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

145

2

86

1,091

-115

-71

-10.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

193

8

119

1,373

-196

-100

-12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W S Central

142

7

84

937

-84

-56

-8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

215

-5

5

2,033

-302

-292

-13.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

134

1

-1

1,137

-230

-229

-17.00%

-17.00%

 

 

United States

191

-15

61

1,651

-265

-163

-14.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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