Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-10-2024

Jan 10, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:14 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.094

$3.190

-3.01%

-$0.096

99,220

 

 

WTI

$73.24

$72.24

1.38%

$1.00

127,148

 

 

Brent

$78.44

$77.59

1.10%

$0.85

11,383

 

 

ULSD

$2.685

$2.650

1.30%

$0.034

19,985

 

 

RBOB

$2.122

$2.077

2.19%

$0.045

12,938

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.16

$5.30

-2.64%

-$0.14

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.55

$23.01

2.37%

$0.54

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$68.02

$57.02

19.30%

$11.00

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/05/24

621

-1

-151

01/06/23

 

 

Canada

01/05/24

125

39

-64

01/06/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,315

94,826

95,047

-221

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,667

84,363

84,492

-129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

382,555

360,814

372,696

-11,882

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

283,498

238,206

202,629

35,577

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,813

113,830

114,262

-432

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,338

36,574

36,671

-97

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,234

145,771

145,885

-114

 

 

RBOB

333,947

310,606

317,816

-7,210

 

 

HSC Basis

766,237

755,702

755,475

227

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/04/19

 

 

 

12/29/23

12/22/23

Net Change

% Change

12/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

799

805

-6

-0.75%

691

15.63%

726

10.06%

 

 

Midwest

968

985

-17

-1.73%

839

15.38%

861

12.48%

 

 

Mountain

228

232

-4

-1.72%

157

45.22%

165

38.52%

 

 

Pacific

280

280

0

0.00%

165

69.70%

223

25.67%

 

 

South

1,201

1,187

14

1.18%

1,040

15.48%

1,062

13.13%

 

 

    Salt

344

329

15

4.56%

270

27.41%

315

9.21%

 

 

    Non_Salt

857

858

-1

-0.12%

770

11.30%

747

14.79%

 

 

Total

3,476

3,490

-14

-0.40%

2,891

20.24%

3,036

14.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/9/24

1/8/24

% Change

Change

12/8/23

% Change

1/10/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$74.64

$63.84

16.90%

$10.79

$51.88

43.86%

$89.18

-16.31%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$107.62

$104.08

3.40%

$3.54

$80.51

33.66%

$71.18

51.18%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$66.00

$57.24

15.31%

$8.76

$50.80

29.91%

$92.36

-28.54%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$65.84

$56.37

16.80%

$9.47

$45.90

43.45%

$77.75

-15.32%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$94.62

$91.97

2.89%

$2.66

$97.78

-3.23%

$166.05

-43.02%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$105.49

$124.81

-15.47%

-$19.31

$96.68

9.12%

$118.63

-11.08%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$79.40

$77.11

2.97%

$2.29

$71.86

10.50%

$134.77

-41.08%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/9/24

1/8/24

% Change

Change

12/8/23

% Change

1/10/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$3.190

$2.980

7.05%

$0.21

$2.50

27.40%

$4.54

-29.69%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.053

-$0.014

286.23%

-$0.04

$0.07

-174.75%

-$0.13

-57.60%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$0.868

$0.923

6.38%

-$0.06

$0.49

78.05%

$0.96

-9.49%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.244

-$0.071

-242.56%

-$0.17

-$0.18

33.42%

-$0.20

24.63%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$7.128

$6.830

4.36%

$0.30

$8.95

-20.37%

$17.48

-59.23%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$1.055

-$0.859

22.84%

-$0.20

-$0.95

11.06%

-$1.35

-21.99%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$2.867

$4.704

-39.06%

-$1.84

$1.61

78.10%

$2.75

4.36%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/9/24

1/8/24

% Change

Change

12/8/23

% Change

1/10/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.732

$0.693

5.73%

$0.04

$0.68

7.68%

$0.82

-11.19%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.724

$0.684

5.80%

$0.04

$0.68

6.33%

$0.83

-13.04%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.218

$0.215

1.71%

$0.00

$0.20

11.97%

$0.26

-15.22%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.450

$1.398

3.75%

$0.05

$1.42

1.76%

$1.52

-4.32%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$0.951

$0.951

-0.01%

$0.00

$0.96

-0.66%

$0.99

-3.82%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.052

$6.147

-1.55%

-$0.10

$6.63

-8.69%

$5.60

8.00%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.820

$5.900

-1.36%

-$0.08

$5.96

-2.34%

$5.33

9.18%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/9/24

1/8/24

% Change

Change

12/8/23

% Change

1/10/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Feb-24

$72.24

$70.77

2.03%

$1.47

$71.44

1.12%

$73.56

-1.79%

 

 

Brent

Feb-24

$77.74

$76.22

1.96%

$1.52

$75.84

2.50%

$77.59

0.19%

 

 

WCS

Feb-24

-$18.81

-$18.66

0.77%

-$0.14

-$19.64

-4.23%

-$22.50

-16.43%

 

 

LLS

Feb-24

$75.08

$73.47

2.14%

$1.61

$73.91

1.59%

$75.25

-0.23%

 

 

Mars

Feb-24

$72.86

$71.48

1.90%

$1.38

$71.25

2.26%

$70.99

2.65%

 

 

Sour

Feb-24

$72.70

$71.31

1.91%

$1.39

$71.40

1.82%

$69.73

4.25%

 

 

ESPO

Feb-24

$75.74

$74.22

2.01%

$1.52

$73.84

2.57%

$76.23

-0.65%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/9/24

1/8/24

% Change

Change

12/8/23

% Change

1/10/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.65

$2.59

2.44%

$0.06

$2.55

3.76%

$2.77

-4.40%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.07

$2.01

3.13%

$0.06

$2.07

0.34%

$2.14

-3.17%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.97

$1.91

3.30%

$0.06

$1.97

0.36%

$2.04

-3.33%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.54

$2.45

3.58%

$0.09

$2.31

10.04%

$2.51

1.52%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.64

$1.59

3.46%

$0.05

$1.68

-2.08%

$1.97

-16.46%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$718.01

$694.40

3.40%

$23.62

$698.00

2.87%

$710.27

1.09%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$98.48

$95.54

3.08%

$2.94

$96.99

1.54%

$94.73

3.96%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/9/24

1/8/24

% Change

Change

12/8/23

% Change

1/10/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

78.45%

82.18%

-4.54%

-3.73%

69.22%

13.33%

70.00%

12.07%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

92.04%

106.95%

-13.94%

-14.91%

89.28%

3.09%

91.27%

0.84%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

113.83%

127.32%

-10.60%

-13.49%

69.02%

64.92%

76.15%

49.48%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

104.90%

115.31%

-9.03%

-10.41%

61.74%

69.91%

65.31%

60.62%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

105.04%

100.75%

4.26%

4.29%

80.19%

30.99%

61.89%

69.72%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

254.87%

231.53%

10.08%

23.34%

64.47%

295.33%

62.30%

309.10%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

434.95%

174.30%

149.54%

260.65%

186.48%

133.24%

91.04%

377.76%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/9/24

1/8/24

% Change

Change

12/8/23

% Change

1/10/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 31.05

EUR 31.62

-1.83%

-EUR 0.58

EUR 39.35

-21.11%

EUR 79.00

-60.70%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 77.55

GBP 79.11

-1.97%

-GBP 1.56

GBP 99.36

-21.95%

GBP 211.56

-63.34%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 84.83

EUR 87.21

-2.73%

-EUR 2.38

EUR 101.81

-16.68%

EUR 245.86

-65.50%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 81.26

GBP 83.99

-3.25%

-GBP 2.73

GBP 91.47

-11.16%

GBP 207.84

-60.90%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 84.10

EUR 88.82

-5.31%

-EUR 4.72

EUR 103.49

-18.74%

EUR 346.68

-75.74%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 104.53

EUR 108.28

-3.46%

-EUR 3.75

EUR 117.76

-11.24%

EUR 213.82

-51.11%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$10.86

$10.46

3.80%

$0.40

$13.69

-20.69%

$25.65

-57.67%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/9/24

1/8/24

% Change

Change

12/8/23

% Change

1/10/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$31.05

$31.62

-1.83%

-$0.58

$39.35

-21.11%

$79.00

-60.70%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$77.55

$79.11

-1.97%

-$1.56

$99.36

-21.95%

$211.56

-63.34%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$84.83

$87.21

-2.73%

-$2.38

$101.81

-16.68%

$245.86

-65.50%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$81.26

$83.99

-3.25%

-$2.73

$91.47

-11.16%

$207.84

-60.90%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$84.10

$88.82

-5.31%

-$4.72

$103.49

-18.74%

$346.68

-75.74%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$104.53

$108.28

-3.46%

-$3.75

$117.76

-11.24%

$213.82

-51.11%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$10.86

$10.46

3.80%

$0.40

$13.69

-20.69%

$25.65

-57.67%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-6

-10

2,053

89

-153

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

-1

1,632

85

-93

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-8

2,940

491

18

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-3

1,306

90

-164

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

247

-29

71

2,327

-372

4

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

230

-26

92

2,124

-287

-70

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

243

-47

62

2,293

-428

-247

-16.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

259

-54

24

2,395

-569

-483

-19.00%

-17.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

145

2

86

1,091

-115

-71

-10.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

193

8

119

1,373

-196

-100

-12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W S Central

142

7

84

937

-84

-56

-8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

215

-5

5

2,033

-302

-292

-13.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

134

1

-1

1,137

-230

-229

-17.00%

-17.00%

 

 

United States

191

-15

61

1,651

-265

-163

-14.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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