Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-11-2024

Jan 11, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:49 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.974

$3.039

-2.14%

-$0.065

30,185

 

 

WTI

$72.65

$71.37

1.79%

$1.28

85,211

 

 

Brent

$78.08

$76.80

1.67%

$1.28

8,775

 

 

ULSD

$2.664

$2.601

2.44%

$0.063

8,813

 

 

RBOB

$2.115

$2.067

2.30%

$0.047

4,330

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.39

$5.36

0.56%

$0.03

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.90

$22.94

4.20%

$0.96

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$69.31

$68.13

1.72%

$1.17

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/05/24

621

-1

-151

01/06/23

 

 

Canada

01/05/24

125

39

-64

01/06/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,315

94,826

95,047

-221

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,667

84,363

84,492

-129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

382,555

360,814

372,696

-11,882

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

283,498

238,206

202,629

35,577

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,813

113,830

114,262

-432

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,338

36,574

36,671

-97

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,234

145,771

145,885

-114

 

 

RBOB

333,947

310,606

317,816

-7,210

 

 

HSC Basis

766,237

755,702

755,475

227

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/04/19

 

 

 

12/29/23

12/22/23

Net Change

% Change

12/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

799

805

-6

-0.75%

691

15.63%

726

10.06%

 

 

Midwest

968

985

-17

-1.73%

839

15.38%

861

12.48%

 

 

Mountain

228

232

-4

-1.72%

157

45.22%

165

38.52%

 

 

Pacific

280

280

0

0.00%

165

69.70%

223

25.67%

 

 

South

1,201

1,187

14

1.18%

1,040

15.48%

1,062

13.13%

 

 

    Salt

344

329

15

4.56%

270

27.41%

315

9.21%

 

 

    Non_Salt

857

858

-1

-0.12%

770

11.30%

747

14.79%

 

 

Total

3,476

3,490

-14

-0.40%

2,891

20.24%

3,036

14.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/10/24

1/9/24

% Change

Change

12/11/23

% Change

1/11/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$75.67

$74.64

1.39%

$1.04

$49.53

52.78%

$88.89

-14.87%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$109.28

$107.62

1.54%

$1.66

$75.01

45.68%

$64.72

68.86%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$68.37

$66.00

3.59%

$2.37

$46.93

45.70%

$89.57

-23.67%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$68.04

$65.84

3.35%

$2.20

$44.28

53.65%

$77.47

-12.17%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$100.06

$94.62

5.74%

$5.43

$92.39

8.30%

$145.21

-31.10%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$115.93

$105.49

9.90%

$10.44

$88.83

30.52%

$116.71

-0.66%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$86.19

$79.40

8.55%

$6.79

$67.29

28.09%

$118.76

-27.42%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/10/24

1/9/24

% Change

Change

12/11/23

% Change

1/11/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$3.039

$3.190

-4.73%

-$0.15

$2.35

29.32%

$4.57

-33.50%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

$0.055

-$0.053

-203.38%

$0.11

$0.04

38.44%

-$0.07

-180.09%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$1.886

$0.868

-53.98%

$1.02

$0.43

337.76%

$0.93

103.44%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

$0.034

-$0.244

-113.74%

$0.28

-$0.14

-123.56%

-$0.15

-122.42%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$8.186

$7.128

14.85%

$1.06

$8.35

-1.97%

$14.71

-44.34%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$1.074

-$1.055

1.85%

-$0.02

-$0.90

19.78%

-$1.22

-12.18%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$3.321

$2.867

15.85%

$0.45

$1.47

125.22%

$3.20

3.74%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/10/24

1/9/24

% Change

Change

12/11/23

% Change

1/11/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.772

$0.732

5.42%

$0.04

$0.67

15.65%

$0.85

-8.70%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.778

$0.724

7.54%

$0.05

$0.67

16.79%

$0.85

-8.08%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.235

$0.218

7.66%

$0.02

$0.18

29.75%

$0.27

-12.51%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.443

$1.450

-0.52%

-$0.01

$1.43

1.19%

$1.57

-8.15%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$0.952

$0.951

0.16%

$0.00

$0.97

-1.54%

$1.01

-5.44%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.062

$6.052

0.17%

$0.01

$6.52

-6.97%

$5.65

7.23%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.807

$5.820

-0.22%

-$0.01

$5.90

-1.58%

$5.42

7.10%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/10/24

1/9/24

% Change

Change

12/11/23

% Change

1/11/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$71.44

$72.29

-1.19%

-$0.85

$71.76

-0.45%

$74.90

-4.62%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$76.80

$77.59

-1.03%

-$0.79

$76.25

0.72%

$79.03

-2.82%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$19.25

-$19.00

1.29%

-$0.25

-$19.03

1.13%

-$22.50

-14.43%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$75.69

$74.98

0.94%

$0.71

$73.96

2.34%

$76.90

-1.57%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$73.36

$72.68

0.92%

$0.68

$71.17

3.08%

$72.91

0.61%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$71.87

$72.59

-1.00%

-$0.72

$71.55

0.45%

$73.11

-1.70%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$74.80

$75.59

-1.06%

-$0.79

$74.25

0.74%

$77.11

-3.00%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/10/24

1/9/24

% Change

Change

12/11/23

% Change

1/11/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.60

$2.65

-1.74%

-$0.05

$2.58

1.01%

$2.83

-7.86%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.07

$2.07

-0.14%

$0.00

$2.06

0.58%

$2.14

-3.13%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.97

$1.97

-0.15%

$0.00

$1.96

0.61%

$2.04

-3.29%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.46

$2.54

-3.07%

-$0.08

$2.28

8.02%

$2.55

-3.14%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.61

$1.64

-2.43%

-$0.04

$1.66

-3.20%

$1.97

-18.69%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$717.53

$718.01

-0.07%

-$0.49

$701.60

2.27%

$737.24

-2.67%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$99.70

$98.48

1.24%

$1.22

$97.82

1.92%

$95.10

4.84%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/10/24

1/9/24

% Change

Change

12/11/23

% Change

1/11/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

100.13%

78.45%

27.64%

21.68%

72.59%

37.94%

64.39%

55.51%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

124.30%

92.04%

35.05%

32.26%

97.35%

27.68%

102.75%

20.97%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

138.15%

113.83%

21.37%

24.32%

71.31%

93.73%

70.68%

95.46%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

155.58%

104.90%

48.31%

50.68%

70.03%

122.16%

59.67%

160.73%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

150.72%

105.04%

43.49%

45.68%

80.28%

87.74%

62.78%

140.08%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

302.02%

254.87%

18.50%

47.15%

56.84%

431.35%

62.59%

382.54%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

157.85%

434.95%

-63.71%

-277.10%

195.21%

-19.14%

91.32%

72.85%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/10/24

1/9/24

% Change

Change

12/11/23

% Change

1/11/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 31.19

EUR 31.05

0.47%

EUR 0.15

EUR 37.06

-15.83%

EUR 76.85

-59.41%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 77.45

GBP 77.55

-0.13%

-GBP 0.10

GBP 92.44

-16.22%

GBP 203.52

-61.95%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 84.01

EUR 84.83

-0.97%

-EUR 0.82

EUR 96.52

-12.96%

EUR 225.22

-62.70%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 78.06

GBP 81.26

-3.93%

-GBP 3.19

GBP 86.84

-10.10%

GBP 188.59

-58.61%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 82.77

EUR 84.10

-1.59%

-EUR 1.34

EUR 99.73

-17.01%

EUR 305.89

-72.94%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 101.22

EUR 104.53

-3.17%

-EUR 3.31

EUR 112.42

-9.97%

EUR 209.75

-51.74%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$11.19

$10.86

3.01%

$0.33

$12.72

-12.07%

$24.50

-54.33%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/10/24

1/9/24

% Change

Change

12/11/23

% Change

1/11/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$31.19

$31.05

0.47%

$0.15

$37.06

-15.83%

$76.85

-59.41%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$77.45

$77.55

-0.13%

-$0.10

$92.44

-16.22%

$203.52

-61.95%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$84.01

$84.83

-0.97%

-$0.82

$96.52

-12.96%

$225.22

-62.70%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$78.06

$81.26

-3.93%

-$3.19

$86.84

-10.10%

$188.59

-58.61%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$82.77

$84.10

-1.59%

-$1.34

$99.73

-17.01%

$305.89

-72.94%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$101.22

$104.53

-3.17%

-$3.31

$112.42

-9.97%

$209.75

-51.74%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$11.19

$10.86

3.01%

$0.33

$12.72

-12.07%

$24.50

-54.33%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-6

-10

2,053

89

-153

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

-1

1,632

85

-93

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-8

2,940

491

18

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-3

1,306

90

-164

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

247

-29

71

2,327

-372

4

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

230

-26

92

2,124

-287

-70

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

243

-47

62

2,293

-428

-247

-16.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

259

-54

24

2,395

-569

-483

-19.00%

-17.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

145

2

86

1,091

-115

-71

-10.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

193

8

119

1,373

-196

-100

-12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W S Central

142

7

84

937

-84

-56

-8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

215

-5

5

2,033

-302

-292

-13.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

134

1

-1

1,137

-230

-229

-17.00%

-17.00%

 

 

United States

191

-15

61

1,651

-265

-163

-14.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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