Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-12-2024

Jan 12, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:48 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.190

$3.097

3.00%

$0.093

42,739

 

 

WTI

$74.40

$72.02

3.30%

$2.38

151,724

 

 

Brent

$79.82

$77.41

3.11%

$2.41

11,480

 

 

ULSD

$2.759

$2.674

3.19%

$0.085

12,458

 

 

RBOB

$2.174

$2.114

2.82%

$0.060

5,805

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.37

$5.32

0.94%

$0.05

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.67

$24.33

1.40%

$0.34

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$63.72

$69.05

-7.71%

-$5.32

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/05/24

621

-1

-151

01/06/23

 

 

Canada

01/05/24

125

39

-64

01/06/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,315

94,826

95,047

-221

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,667

84,363

84,492

-129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

382,555

360,814

372,696

-11,882

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

283,498

238,206

202,629

35,577

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,813

113,830

114,262

-432

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,338

36,574

36,671

-97

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,234

145,771

145,885

-114

 

 

RBOB

333,947

310,606

317,816

-7,210

 

 

HSC Basis

766,237

755,702

755,475

227

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/11/19

 

 

 

1/5/24

12/29/23

Net Change

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

757

799

-42

-5.26%

700

8.14%

698

8.39%

 

 

Midwest

924

968

-44

-4.55%

823

12.27%

823

12.22%

 

 

Mountain

220

228

-8

-3.51%

153

43.79%

158

39.59%

 

 

Pacific

275

280

-5

-1.79%

160

71.88%

215

28.15%

 

 

South

1,160

1,201

-41

-3.41%

1,067

8.72%

1,044

11.15%

 

 

    Salt

332

344

-12

-3.49%

295

12.54%

315

5.40%

 

 

    Non_Salt

828

857

-29

-3.38%

772

7.25%

729

13.64%

 

 

Total

3,336

3,476

-140

-4.03%

2,902

14.96%

2,937

13.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/11/24

1/10/24

% Change

Change

12/12/23

% Change

1/12/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$70.58

$75.67

-6.72%

-$5.09

$48.00

47.04%

$89.53

-21.16%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$96.60

$109.28

-11.60%

-$12.68

$70.73

36.58%

$75.74

27.54%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$57.10

$68.37

-16.49%

-$11.27

$45.66

25.06%

$93.52

-38.95%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$63.49

$68.04

-6.70%

-$4.56

$41.57

52.73%

$77.84

-18.44%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$103.33

$100.06

3.28%

$3.28

$87.44

18.18%

$157.96

-34.58%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$108.00

$115.93

-6.84%

-$7.93

$91.28

18.32%

$121.00

-10.75%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$87.44

$86.19

1.45%

$1.25

$64.49

35.60%

$133.61

-34.56%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/11/24

1/10/24

% Change

Change

12/12/23

% Change

1/12/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$3.097

$3.039

1.91%

$0.06

$2.24

38.26%

$4.60

-32.70%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.091

$0.055

-265.70%

-$0.15

$0.02

-493.53%

-$0.04

117.90%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$1.165

$1.886

61.96%

-$0.72

$0.37

216.58%

$0.99

17.69%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.180

$0.034

637.91%

-$0.21

-$0.12

54.02%

-$0.14

25.23%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$7.033

$8.186

-14.08%

-$1.15

$7.50

-6.22%

$14.41

-51.19%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$1.157

-$1.074

7.73%

-$0.08

-$0.76

51.37%

-$1.25

-7.73%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$2.396

$3.321

-27.85%

-$0.92

$1.28

87.75%

$3.34

-28.37%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/11/24

1/10/24

% Change

Change

12/12/23

% Change

1/12/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.785

$0.772

1.65%

$0.01

$0.64

23.09%

$0.86

-8.37%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.792

$0.778

1.79%

$0.01

$0.65

21.86%

$0.86

-7.40%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.239

$0.235

1.46%

$0.00

$0.18

30.15%

$0.28

-14.99%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.470

$1.443

1.90%

$0.03

$1.40

4.90%

$1.63

-9.58%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$0.975

$0.952

2.33%

$0.02

$0.93

4.97%

$1.01

-3.88%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.025

$6.062

-0.61%

-$0.04

$6.45

-6.61%

$5.78

4.23%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.740

$5.807

-1.16%

-$0.07

$5.82

-1.39%

$5.59

2.77%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/11/24

1/10/24

% Change

Change

12/12/23

% Change

1/12/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$72.09

$71.44

0.90%

$0.65

$69.09

4.34%

$75.45

-4.45%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$77.41

$76.80

0.79%

$0.61

$73.52

5.29%

$79.93

-3.15%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$19.34

-$19.25

0.49%

-$0.09

-$19.76

-2.09%

-$21.87

-11.56%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$75.03

$75.69

-0.88%

-$0.66

$71.50

4.94%

$77.46

-3.14%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$72.60

$73.36

-1.05%

-$0.76

$68.81

5.51%

$72.96

-0.50%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$72.79

$71.87

1.27%

$0.92

$69.17

5.24%

$72.28

0.72%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$75.41

$74.80

0.81%

$0.61

$71.52

5.44%

$77.17

-2.28%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/11/24

1/10/24

% Change

Change

12/12/23

% Change

1/12/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.67

$2.60

2.69%

$0.07

$2.49

7.48%

$2.73

-1.98%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.12

$2.07

2.51%

$0.05

$2.00

6.42%

$2.20

-3.37%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.02

$1.97

2.64%

$0.05

$1.89

6.75%

$2.10

-3.53%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.56

$2.46

3.89%

$0.10

$2.28

12.42%

$2.47

3.77%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.59

$1.61

-1.25%

-$0.02

$1.65

-4.23%

$1.97

-19.34%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$733.84

$717.53

2.27%

$16.31

$703.28

4.35%

$737.05

-0.44%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$97.83

$99.70

-1.88%

-$1.87

$97.05

0.80%

$99.24

-1.42%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/11/24

1/10/24

% Change

Change

12/12/23

% Change

1/12/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

81.85%

100.13%

-18.26%

-18.28%

75.97%

7.74%

63.72%

28.45%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

108.64%

124.30%

-12.60%

-15.66%

108.51%

0.12%

101.49%

7.05%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

115.76%

138.15%

-16.21%

-22.39%

73.40%

57.71%

69.99%

65.40%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

147.19%

155.58%

-5.39%

-8.39%

75.40%

95.21%

59.72%

146.47%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

146.20%

150.72%

-3.00%

-4.52%

81.54%

79.30%

61.60%

137.34%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

282.92%

302.02%

-6.32%

-19.10%

65.06%

334.86%

61.91%

356.99%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

401.26%

157.85%

154.20%

243.41%

169.05%

137.36%

91.07%

340.61%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/11/24

1/10/24

% Change

Change

12/12/23

% Change

1/12/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 30.80

EUR 31.19

-1.25%

-EUR 0.39

EUR 35.38

-12.95%

EUR 77.17

-60.09%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 76.49

GBP 77.45

-1.24%

-GBP 0.96

GBP 88.47

-13.54%

GBP 208.52

-63.32%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 82.25

EUR 84.01

-2.10%

-EUR 1.76

EUR 93.38

-11.93%

EUR 221.11

-62.80%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 75.59

GBP 78.06

-3.16%

-GBP 2.47

GBP 83.53

-9.50%

GBP 186.71

-59.51%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 79.92

EUR 82.77

-3.44%

-EUR 2.85

EUR 94.88

-15.77%

EUR 284.91

-71.95%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 98.32

EUR 101.22

-2.86%

-EUR 2.89

EUR 110.51

-11.03%

EUR 227.71

-56.82%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$11.28

$11.19

0.85%

$0.09

$11.96

-5.68%

$24.50

-53.95%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/11/24

1/10/24

% Change

Change

12/12/23

% Change

1/12/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$30.80

$31.19

-1.25%

-$0.39

$35.38

-12.95%

$77.17

-60.09%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$76.49

$77.45

-1.24%

-$0.96

$88.47

-13.54%

$208.52

-63.32%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$82.25

$84.01

-2.10%

-$1.76

$93.38

-11.93%

$221.11

-62.80%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$75.59

$78.06

-3.16%

-$2.47

$83.53

-9.50%

$186.71

-59.51%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$79.92

$82.77

-3.44%

-$2.85

$94.88

-15.77%

$284.91

-71.95%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$98.32

$101.22

-2.86%

-$2.89

$110.51

-11.03%

$227.71

-56.82%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$11.28

$11.19

0.85%

$0.09

$11.96

-5.68%

$24.50

-53.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-135

32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-280

6.00%

-29.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-185

-6.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-6

-10

2,053

89

-153

5.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

-1

1,632

85

-93

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-8

2,940

491

18

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-153

1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

695

-9

-281

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-3

1,306

90

-164

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

247

-29

71

2,327

-372

4

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

230

-26

92

2,124

-287

-70

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

243

-47

62

2,293

-428

-247

-16.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

259

-54

24

2,395

-569

-483

-19.00%

-17.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

145

2

86

1,091

-115

-71

-10.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

193

8

119

1,373

-196

-100

-12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W S Central

142

7

84

937

-84

-56

-8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

215

-5

5

2,033

-302

-292

-13.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

134

1

-1

1,137

-230

-229

-17.00%

-17.00%

 

 

United States

191

-15

61

1,651

-265

-163

-14.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

To opt out of this email please follow this link.

Campbell Faulkner | OTC Global Holdings

Quality Data – Reliable Service – Affordable Price

5151 San Felipe Suite 2200
Houston, TX 77056
faulkner.c@otcgh.com
eoxlive.com/market-data

 

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.