Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-16-2024

Jan 16, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:16 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.944

$3.313

-11.14%

-$0.369

93,633

 

 

WTI

$72.55

$72.68

-0.18%

-$0.13

220,630

 

 

Brent

$78.44

$78.29

0.19%

$0.15

28,480

 

 

ULSD

$2.707

$2.669

1.42%

$0.038

32,094

 

 

RBOB

$2.161

$2.120

1.90%

$0.040

21,078

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.72

$5.50

4.00%

$0.22

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.41

$23.86

6.50%

$1.55

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$64.34

$63.50

1.33%

$0.84

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/12/24

619

-2

-156

01/13/23

 

 

Canada

01/12/24

213

88

-14

01/13/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/9/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,796

88,454

88,436

18

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

79,584

79,198

79,448

-250

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

382,360

360,699

372,175

-11,476

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

439,204

375,265

321,052

54,213

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

128,971

119,714

121,600

-1,886

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,914

38,127

38,363

-236

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

139,634

138,966

139,377

-411

 

 

RBOB

343,969

321,230

325,963

-4,733

 

 

HSC Basis

719,114

710,131

712,131

-2,000

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/11/19

 

 

 

1/5/24

12/29/23

Net Change

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

757

799

-42

-5.26%

700

8.14%

698

8.39%

 

 

Midwest

924

968

-44

-4.55%

823

12.27%

823

12.22%

 

 

Mountain

220

228

-8

-3.51%

153

43.79%

158

39.59%

 

 

Pacific

275

280

-5

-1.79%

160

71.88%

215

28.15%

 

 

South

1,160

1,201

-41

-3.41%

1,067

8.72%

1,044

11.15%

 

 

    Salt

332

344

-12

-3.49%

295

12.54%

315

5.40%

 

 

    Non_Salt

828

857

-29

-3.38%

772

7.25%

729

13.64%

 

 

Total

3,336

3,476

-140

-4.03%

2,902

14.96%

2,937

13.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/12/24

1/11/24

% Change

Change

12/13/23

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$70.62

$70.58

0.05%

$0.04

$48.22

46.47%

$82.42

-14.31%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$100.18

$96.60

3.70%

$3.58

$69.98

43.14%

$76.12

31.61%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$57.00

$57.10

-0.18%

-$0.10

$48.38

17.82%

$86.70

-34.26%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$64.34

$63.49

1.34%

$0.85

$41.63

54.53%

$71.69

-10.25%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$100.05

$103.33

-3.18%

-$3.28

$93.08

7.49%

$138.45

-27.73%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$102.00

$108.00

-5.56%

-$6.00

$93.51

9.08%

$111.59

-8.59%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$85.34

$87.44

-2.41%

-$2.10

$66.15

29.00%

$117.69

-27.49%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/12/24

1/11/24

% Change

Change

12/13/23

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$3.313

$3.097

6.97%

$0.22

$2.29

44.55%

$4.50

-26.38%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.115

-$0.091

26.18%

-$0.02

$0.02

-829.11%

-$0.04

172.99%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$1.246

$1.165

-6.49%

$0.08

$0.37

236.47%

$0.98

26.77%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.331

-$0.180

-83.63%

-$0.15

-$0.12

171.90%

-$0.13

155.13%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$7.590

$7.033

7.92%

$0.56

$6.90

9.96%

$14.61

-48.04%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$1.311

-$1.157

13.26%

-$0.15

-$0.75

73.93%

-$1.20

9.33%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$2.285

$2.396

-4.64%

-$0.11

$1.36

67.64%

$2.89

-20.88%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/12/24

1/11/24

% Change

Change

12/13/23

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.800

$0.785

1.92%

$0.02

$0.63

26.94%

$0.86

-7.27%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.803

$0.792

1.44%

$0.01

$0.64

26.28%

$0.86

-6.27%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.242

$0.239

1.63%

$0.00

$0.19

25.94%

$0.26

-5.38%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.472

$1.470

0.17%

$0.00

$1.40

5.20%

$1.58

-7.03%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$0.986

$0.975

1.15%

$0.01

$0.92

6.79%

$1.01

-2.10%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.170

$6.025

2.41%

$0.14

$6.39

-3.46%

$5.83

5.84%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.800

$5.740

1.05%

$0.06

$5.90

-1.68%

$5.60

3.49%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/12/24

1/11/24

% Change

Change

12/13/23

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$72.79

$72.09

0.96%

$0.70

$69.98

4.02%

$76.35

-4.66%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$78.29

$77.41

1.12%

$0.88

$74.51

5.07%

$80.87

-3.19%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$19.43

-$19.34

0.46%

-$0.09

-$19.07

1.94%

-$20.91

-7.06%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$75.89

$75.03

1.13%

$0.86

$72.53

4.62%

$77.45

-2.02%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$73.30

$72.60

0.95%

$0.70

$69.66

5.23%

$73.71

-0.56%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$73.33

$72.79

0.73%

$0.53

$69.96

4.81%

$73.25

0.11%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$76.29

$75.41

1.15%

$0.88

$72.51

5.21%

$78.28

-2.54%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/12/24

1/11/24

% Change

Change

12/13/23

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.68

$2.67

0.07%

$0.00

$2.52

6.11%

$2.78

-3.64%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.12

$2.12

0.00%

$0.00

$2.04

4.32%

$2.25

-5.81%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.02

$2.02

0.00%

$0.00

$1.93

4.55%

$2.15

-6.08%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.55

$2.56

-0.62%

-$0.02

$2.29

10.99%

$2.88

-11.57%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.59

$1.59

0.32%

$0.00

$1.61

-1.49%

$2.04

-22.06%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$730.02

$733.84

-0.52%

-$3.82

$682.70

6.93%

$737.38

-1.00%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$101.17

$97.83

3.41%

$3.34

$95.90

5.49%

$98.85

2.34%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/12/24

1/11/24

% Change

Change

12/13/23

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

81.57%

81.85%

-0.34%

-0.28%

72.03%

13.24%

71.91%

13.43%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

106.70%

108.64%

-1.79%

-1.94%

98.67%

8.14%

108.70%

-1.84%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

108.66%

115.76%

-6.13%

-7.10%

65.94%

64.79%

77.44%

40.32%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

142.55%

147.19%

-3.15%

-4.64%

74.41%

91.57%

68.02%

109.57%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

157.18%

146.20%

7.51%

10.98%

85.60%

83.62%

60.59%

159.42%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

109.80%

282.92%

-61.19%

-173.12%

212.37%

-48.30%

62.21%

76.50%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

146.65%

401.26%

-63.45%

-254.61%

137.44%

6.70%

90.88%

61.37%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/12/24

1/11/24

% Change

Change

12/13/23

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 31.58

EUR 30.80

2.52%

EUR 0.78

EUR 36.14

-12.63%

EUR 74.25

-57.47%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 79.25

GBP 76.49

3.60%

GBP 2.76

GBP 90.79

-12.71%

GBP 203.01

-60.97%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 82.72

EUR 82.25

0.58%

EUR 0.48

EUR 93.86

-11.86%

EUR 215.32

-61.58%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 77.16

GBP 75.59

2.07%

GBP 1.57

GBP 87.29

-11.60%

GBP 183.84

-58.03%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 81.70

EUR 79.92

2.23%

EUR 1.79

EUR 95.32

-14.28%

EUR 266.63

-69.36%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 101.19

EUR 98.32

2.91%

EUR 2.86

EUR 110.76

-8.64%

EUR 210.26

-51.87%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$11.30

$11.28

0.12%

$0.01

$12.65

-10.68%

$24.78

-54.42%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/12/24

1/11/24

% Change

Change

12/13/23

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$31.58

$30.80

2.52%

$0.78

$36.14

-12.63%

$74.25

-57.47%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$79.25

$76.49

3.60%

$2.76

$90.79

-12.71%

$203.01

-60.97%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$82.72

$82.25

0.58%

$0.48

$93.86

-11.86%

$215.32

-61.58%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$77.16

$75.59

2.07%

$1.57

$87.29

-11.60%

$183.84

-58.03%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$81.70

$79.92

2.23%

$1.79

$95.32

-14.28%

$266.63

-69.36%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$101.19

$98.32

2.91%

$2.86

$110.76

-8.64%

$210.26

-51.87%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$11.30

$11.28

0.12%

$0.01

$12.65

-10.68%

$24.78

-54.42%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

3

-5

-1

4

-10

-10

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

0

0

-4

-1

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-3

-4

0

-5

-11

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

-1

1

-3

-3

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

219

-62

-9

2,546

-434

-4

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

212

-49

10

2,336

-336

-60

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

235

-60

12

2,528

-488

-235

-16.00%

-9.00%

 

 

W N Central

313

-4

49

2,708

-573

-434

-17.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

121

-25

3

1,211

-141

-67

-10.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

162

-26

33

1,535

-222

-67

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W S Central

130

-7

57

1,068

-90

0

-8.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

268

49

81

2,301

-254

-211

-10.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Pacific

165

34

48

1,301

-197

-181

-13.00%

-12.00%

 

 

United States

190

-19

28

1,841

-283

-135

-13.00%

-7.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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