Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-17-2024

Jan 17, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 12:34 PM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.840

$2.900

-2.07%

-$0.060

85,880

 

 

WTI

$71.91

$72.40

-0.68%

-$0.49

223,910

 

 

Brent

$77.43

$78.29

-1.10%

-$0.86

24,526

 

 

ULSD

$2.628

$2.661

-1.22%

-$0.032

29,230

 

 

RBOB

$2.121

$2.122

-0.03%

-$0.001

20,254

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.49

$5.77

-4.85%

-$0.28

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.44

$24.21

0.96%

$0.23

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$52.07

$64.42

-19.16%

-$12.34

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/12/24

619

-2

-156

01/13/23

 

 

Canada

01/12/24

213

88

-14

01/13/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/9/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,796

88,454

88,436

18

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

79,584

79,198

79,448

-250

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

382,360

360,699

372,175

-11,476

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

439,204

375,265

321,052

54,213

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

128,971

119,714

121,600

-1,886

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,914

38,127

38,363

-236

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

139,634

138,966

139,377

-411

 

 

RBOB

343,969

321,230

325,963

-4,733

 

 

HSC Basis

719,114

710,131

712,131

-2,000

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/11/19

 

 

 

1/5/24

12/29/23

Net Change

% Change

1/6/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

757

799

-42

-5.26%

700

8.14%

698

8.39%

 

 

Midwest

924

968

-44

-4.55%

823

12.27%

823

12.22%

 

 

Mountain

220

228

-8

-3.51%

153

43.79%

158

39.59%

 

 

Pacific

275

280

-5

-1.79%

160

71.88%

215

28.15%

 

 

South

1,160

1,201

-41

-3.41%

1,067

8.72%

1,044

11.15%

 

 

    Salt

332

344

-12

-3.49%

295

12.54%

315

5.40%

 

 

    Non_Salt

828

857

-29

-3.38%

772

7.25%

729

13.64%

 

 

Total

3,336

3,476

-140

-4.03%

2,902

14.96%

2,937

13.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/16/24

1/12/24

% Change

Change

12/14/23

% Change

1/17/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$58.17

$70.62

-17.63%

-$12.45

$49.66

17.14%

$89.47

-34.98%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$64.84

$100.18

-35.27%

-$35.33

$68.80

-5.74%

$72.70

-10.81%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$49.62

$57.00

-12.95%

-$7.38

$51.86

-4.32%

$87.70

-43.42%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$53.48

$64.34

-16.88%

-$10.86

$43.58

22.70%

$77.59

-31.08%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$92.15

$100.05

-7.90%

-$7.90

$88.00

4.72%

$150.47

-38.76%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$102.50

$102.00

0.49%

$0.50

$95.02

7.87%

$118.13

-13.23%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$79.06

$85.34

-7.35%

-$6.27

$66.33

19.20%

$127.06

-37.78%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/16/24

1/12/24

% Change

Change

12/14/23

% Change

1/17/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$2.900

$3.313

-12.47%

-$0.41

$2.35

23.56%

$4.52

-35.78%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.148

-$0.115

28.39%

-$0.03

$0.00

-5382.14%

-$0.07

99.06%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$1.126

$1.246

10.59%

-$0.12

$0.36

209.17%

$0.99

14.11%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.307

-$0.331

-7.25%

$0.02

-$0.20

54.61%

-$0.15

99.80%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$6.274

$7.590

-17.34%

-$1.32

$7.76

-19.15%

$13.25

-52.67%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$1.258

-$1.311

-4.04%

$0.05

-$0.89

42.03%

-$1.20

4.75%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$2.001

$2.285

-12.44%

-$0.28

$1.53

30.93%

$3.19

-37.33%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/16/24

1/12/24

% Change

Change

12/14/23

% Change

1/17/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.796

$0.800

-0.42%

$0.00

$0.63

26.15%

$0.90

-11.24%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.800

$0.803

-0.42%

$0.00

$0.65

24.03%

$0.90

-10.86%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.242

$0.242

-0.14%

$0.00

$0.20

18.84%

$0.28

-14.77%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.455

$1.472

-1.18%

-$0.02

$1.43

1.87%

$1.65

-11.90%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$1.012

$0.986

2.66%

$0.03

$0.91

11.24%

$1.05

-3.28%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.205

$6.170

0.57%

$0.03

$6.62

-6.31%

$5.99

3.65%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.760

$5.800

-0.69%

-$0.04

$6.00

-3.99%

$5.77

-0.25%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/16/24

1/12/24

% Change

Change

12/14/23

% Change

1/17/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$72.52

$72.79

-0.37%

-$0.27

$72.21

0.43%

$75.91

-4.47%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$78.29

$78.29

0.00%

$0.00

$76.85

1.87%

$80.96

-3.30%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$19.57

-$19.43

0.69%

-$0.14

-$17.31

13.06%

-$21.60

-9.39%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$75.11

$75.89

-1.03%

-$0.78

$75.14

-0.04%

$78.76

-4.63%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$72.70

$73.30

-0.82%

-$0.60

$71.99

1.00%

$73.28

-0.78%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$73.06

$73.33

-0.36%

-$0.26

$72.56

0.70%

$72.82

0.34%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$76.29

$76.29

0.00%

$0.00

$74.85

1.92%

$79.22

-3.70%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/16/24

1/12/24

% Change

Change

12/14/23

% Change

1/17/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.70

$2.68

0.90%

$0.02

$2.56

5.47%

$2.89

-6.44%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.12

$2.12

-0.19%

$0.00

$2.13

-0.56%

$2.27

-6.78%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.02

$2.02

-0.20%

$0.00

$2.03

-0.59%

$2.17

-7.09%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.56

$2.55

0.67%

$0.02

$2.37

7.92%

$2.54

0.79%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.63

$1.59

2.20%

$0.03

$1.61

0.93%

$2.02

-19.67%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$736.73

$730.02

0.92%

$6.71

$703.23

4.76%

$750.25

-1.80%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$100.01

$101.17

-1.15%

-$1.16

$97.36

2.73%

$100.26

-0.25%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/16/24

1/12/24

% Change

Change

12/14/23

% Change

1/17/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Feb-24

121.19%

81.57%

48.57%

39.62%

70.79%

71.20%

61.34%

97.57%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Feb-24

149.81%

106.70%

40.40%

43.11%

103.93%

44.15%

97.73%

53.29%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Feb-24

143.48%

108.66%

32.04%

34.82%

65.37%

119.49%

66.81%

114.76%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Feb-24

169.05%

142.55%

18.59%

26.50%

73.27%

130.72%

58.62%

188.38%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Feb-24

147.05%

157.18%

-6.44%

-10.13%

83.58%

75.94%

60.91%

141.42%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Feb-24

121.48%

109.80%

10.64%

11.68%

38.97%

211.73%

65.30%

86.03%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Feb-24

202.55%

146.65%

38.12%

55.90%

127.67%

58.65%

90.54%

123.71%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/16/24

1/12/24

% Change

Change

12/14/23

% Change

1/17/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Feb-24

EUR 29.75

EUR 31.58

-5.78%

-EUR 1.83

EUR 34.92

-14.80%

EUR 69.55

-57.23%

 

 

NBP

Feb-24

GBP 74.33

GBP 79.25

-6.21%

-GBP 4.92

GBP 87.48

-15.04%

GBP 185.52

-59.94%

 

 

German Base

Feb-24

EUR 78.04

EUR 82.72

-5.67%

-EUR 4.69

EUR 92.69

-15.81%

EUR 199.88

-60.96%

 

 

UK Base

Feb-24

GBP 72.94

GBP 77.16

-5.47%

-GBP 4.22

GBP 84.93

-14.12%

GBP 184.57

-60.48%

 

 

French Base

Feb-24

EUR 76.61

EUR 81.70

-6.23%

-EUR 5.09

EUR 93.91

-18.42%

EUR 238.31

-67.85%

 

 

Italian Base

Feb-24

EUR 95.39

EUR 101.19

-5.73%

-EUR 5.80

EUR 107.27

-11.08%

EUR 189.34

-49.62%

 

 

JKM LNG

Feb-24

$10.54

$11.30

-6.72%

-$0.76

$12.50

-15.69%

$22.37

-52.89%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/16/24

1/12/24

% Change

Change

12/14/23

% Change

1/17/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Feb-24

$29.75

$31.58

-5.78%

-$1.83

$34.92

-14.80%

$69.55

-57.23%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Feb-24

$74.33

$79.25

-6.21%

-$4.92

$87.48

-15.04%

$185.52

-59.94%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Feb-24

$78.04

$82.72

-5.67%

-$4.69

$92.69

-15.81%

$199.88

-60.96%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Feb-24

$72.94

$77.16

-5.47%

-$4.22

$84.93

-14.12%

$184.57

-60.48%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Feb-24

$76.61

$81.70

-6.23%

-$5.09

$93.91

-18.42%

$238.31

-67.85%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$95.39

$101.19

-5.73%

-$5.80

$107.27

-11.08%

$189.34

-49.62%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Feb-24

$10.54

$11.30

-6.72%

-$0.76

$12.50

-15.69%

$22.37

-52.89%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

3

-5

-1

4

-10

-10

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

0

0

-4

-1

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-3

-4

0

-5

-11

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

-1

1

-3

-3

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

219

-62

-9

2,546

-434

-4

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

212

-49

10

2,336

-336

-60

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

235

-60

12

2,528

-488

-235

-16.00%

-9.00%

 

 

W N Central

313

-4

49

2,708

-573

-434

-17.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

121

-25

3

1,211

-141

-67

-10.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

162

-26

33

1,535

-222

-67

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W S Central

130

-7

57

1,068

-90

0

-8.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

268

49

81

2,301

-254

-211

-10.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Pacific

165

34

48

1,301

-197

-181

-13.00%

-12.00%

 

 

United States

190

-19

28

1,841

-283

-135

-13.00%

-7.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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