Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-19-2024

Jan 19, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:10 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.595

$2.697

-3.78%

-$0.102

37,131

 

 

WTI

$74.71

$74.08

0.85%

$0.63

12,164

 

 

Brent

$79.61

$79.10

0.64%

$0.51

10,333

 

 

ULSD

$2.723

$2.694

1.08%

$0.029

6,410

 

 

RBOB

$2.193

$2.184

0.44%

$0.009

4,038

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.15

$5.15

0.00%

$0.00

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.99

$24.90

0.39%

$0.10

Feb-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$46.14

$49.15

-6.12%

-$3.01

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/12/24

619

-2

-156

01/13/23

 

 

Canada

01/12/24

213

88

-14

01/13/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/9/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,796

88,454

88,436

18

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

79,584

79,198

79,448

-250

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

382,360

360,699

372,175

-11,476

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

439,204

375,265

321,052

54,213

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

128,971

119,714

121,600

-1,886

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,914

38,127

38,363

-236

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

139,634

138,966

139,377

-411

 

 

RBOB

343,969

321,230

325,963

-4,733

 

 

HSC Basis

719,114

710,131

712,131

-2,000

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/18/19

 

 

 

1/12/24

1/5/24

Net Change

% Change

1/13/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

715

757

-42

-5.55%

662

8.01%

654

9.26%

 

 

Midwest

873

924

-51

-5.52%

785

11.21%

774

12.76%

 

 

Mountain

208

220

-12

-5.45%

147

41.50%

149

39.41%

 

 

Pacific

257

275

-18

-6.55%

157

63.69%

208

23.80%

 

 

South

1,128

1,160

-32

-2.76%

1,069

5.52%

1,005

12.19%

 

 

    Salt

332

332

0

0.00%

307

8.14%

307

8.21%

 

 

    Non_Salt

796

828

-32

-3.86%

762

4.46%

699

13.94%

 

 

Total

3,182

3,336

-154

-4.62%

2,820

12.84%

2,791

14.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/24

1/17/24

% Change

Change

12/18/23

% Change

1/19/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$51.71

$54.92

-5.85%

-$3.21

$50.66

2.06%

$88.11

-41.31%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$57.75

$68.66

-15.89%

-$10.91

$73.07

-20.96%

$71.29

-18.99%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$51.46

$49.25

4.49%

$2.21

$47.64

8.01%

$80.87

-36.37%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$46.53

$49.56

-6.11%

-$3.03

$43.51

6.93%

$76.64

-39.29%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$74.37

$82.64

-10.00%

-$8.26

$92.13

-19.27%

$144.94

-48.69%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$103.47

$114.00

-9.24%

-$10.53

$88.61

16.77%

$106.61

-2.95%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$64.74

$74.45

-13.04%

-$9.71

$70.34

-7.96%

$120.94

-46.47%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/24

1/17/24

% Change

Change

12/18/23

% Change

1/19/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$2.697

$2.870

-6.03%

-$0.17

$2.42

11.63%

$4.50

-40.03%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.174

-$0.222

-21.79%

$0.05

$0.00

3444.90%

-$0.06

195.41%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$0.862

$0.649

-24.64%

$0.21

$0.43

100.51%

$1.00

-13.75%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.469

-$0.505

-7.24%

$0.04

-$0.19

140.90%

-$0.24

98.06%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$5.626

$5.999

-6.22%

-$0.37

$7.71

-27.02%

$13.71

-58.97%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$0.960

-$1.083

-11.36%

$0.12

-$0.91

5.56%

-$1.25

-23.00%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$1.777

$1.847

-3.78%

-$0.07

$1.52

16.62%

$2.77

-35.89%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/24

1/17/24

% Change

Change

12/18/23

% Change

1/19/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.835

$0.825

1.22%

$0.01

$0.64

30.68%

$0.90

-7.26%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.845

$0.795

6.23%

$0.05

$0.65

29.93%

$0.92

-7.82%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.197

$0.203

-2.51%

-$0.01

$0.20

-3.08%

$0.27

-27.92%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.462

$1.450

0.86%

$0.01

$1.49

-1.76%

$1.60

-8.66%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$1.061

$1.020

3.99%

$0.04

$0.92

14.99%

$1.07

-0.61%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.140

$6.040

1.66%

$0.10

$6.60

-6.97%

$5.92

3.77%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.830

$5.735

1.66%

$0.10

$6.03

-3.32%

$5.75

1.44%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/24

1/17/24

% Change

Change

12/18/23

% Change

1/19/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$73.95

$72.48

1.99%

$1.47

$73.10

1.16%

$76.54

-3.38%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$79.10

$77.88

1.54%

$1.22

$78.11

1.27%

$81.43

-2.86%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$19.37

-$18.11

6.51%

-$1.26

-$20.48

-5.39%

-$21.21

-8.66%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$76.60

$74.25

3.06%

$2.34

$75.73

1.14%

$77.99

-1.78%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$74.25

$71.89

3.18%

$2.36

$73.40

1.16%

$73.69

0.76%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$74.23

$73.44

1.06%

$0.79

$73.46

1.05%

$73.61

0.85%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$77.10

$75.88

1.58%

$1.22

$76.11

1.30%

$79.80

-3.39%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/24

1/17/24

% Change

Change

12/18/23

% Change

1/19/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.69

$2.65

1.43%

$0.04

$2.66

0.98%

$2.81

-4.34%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.17

$2.12

2.55%

$0.05

$2.18

-0.18%

$2.28

-4.69%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.07

$2.02

2.67%

$0.05

$2.08

-0.19%

$2.18

-4.91%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.56

$2.55

0.67%

$0.02

$2.46

4.23%

$2.85

-10.11%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.58

$1.57

0.32%

$0.00

$1.62

-2.90%

$1.99

-20.65%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$737.95

$720.13

2.47%

$17.82

$729.00

1.23%

$736.16

0.24%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$99.30

$98.41

0.91%

$0.89

$101.05

-1.73%

$97.64

1.70%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/24

1/17/24

% Change

Change

12/18/23

% Change

1/19/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

68.48%

64.84%

5.61%

3.64%

70.42%

-2.75%

60.57%

13.06%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

108.11%

93.44%

15.70%

14.67%

124.35%

-13.06%

143.94%

-24.89%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

94.01%

92.83%

1.27%

1.18%

97.43%

-3.51%

89.53%

5.00%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

76.56%

73.88%

3.63%

2.68%

82.53%

-7.23%

62.63%

22.24%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

67.71%

73.34%

-7.68%

-5.63%

61.98%

9.24%

42.57%

59.06%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

74.89%

63.63%

17.70%

11.26%

66.09%

13.32%

51.48%

45.47%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

286.09%

172.74%

65.62%

113.35%

132.85%

115.35%

66.40%

330.86%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/24

1/17/24

% Change

Change

12/18/23

% Change

1/19/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 28.15

EUR 27.83

1.13%

EUR 0.32

EUR 35.70

-21.14%

EUR 70.88

-60.29%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 67.72

GBP 67.15

0.84%

GBP 0.56

GBP 89.76

-24.56%

GBP 178.48

-62.06%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 67.51

EUR 67.50

0.01%

EUR 0.01

EUR 88.86

-24.03%

EUR 195.89

-65.54%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 63.03

GBP 66.07

-4.61%

-GBP 3.05

GBP 84.84

-25.72%

GBP 184.89

-65.91%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 64.34

EUR 64.28

0.08%

EUR 0.05

EUR 90.18

-28.66%

EUR 237.28

-72.89%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 90.75

EUR 90.93

-0.19%

-EUR 0.18

EUR 105.39

-13.88%

EUR 187.43

-51.58%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$11.09

$10.56

5.01%

$0.53

$12.56

-11.75%

$22.34

-50.36%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/24

1/17/24

% Change

Change

12/18/23

% Change

1/19/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$28.15

$27.83

1.13%

$0.32

$35.70

-21.14%

$70.88

-60.29%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$67.72

$67.15

0.84%

$0.56

$89.76

-24.56%

$178.48

-62.06%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$67.51

$67.50

0.01%

$0.01

$88.86

-24.03%

$195.89

-65.54%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$63.03

$66.07

-4.61%

-$3.05

$84.84

-25.72%

$184.89

-65.91%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$64.34

$64.28

0.08%

$0.05

$90.18

-28.66%

$237.28

-72.89%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$90.75

$90.93

-0.19%

-$0.18

$105.39

-13.88%

$187.43

-51.58%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$11.09

$10.56

5.01%

$0.53

$12.56

-11.75%

$22.34

-50.36%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

3

-5

-1

4

-10

-10

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

0

0

-4

-1

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-3

-4

0

-5

-11

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

-1

1

-3

-3

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

219

-62

-9

2,546

-434

-4

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

212

-49

10

2,336

-336

-60

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

235

-60

12

2,528

-488

-235

-16.00%

-9.00%

 

 

W N Central

313

-4

49

2,708

-573

-434

-17.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

121

-25

3

1,211

-141

-67

-10.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

162

-26

33

1,535

-222

-67

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W S Central

130

-7

57

1,068

-90

0

-8.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

268

49

81

2,301

-254

-211

-10.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Pacific

165

34

48

1,301

-197

-181

-13.00%

-12.00%

 

 

United States

190

-19

28

1,841

-283

-135

-13.00%

-7.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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