Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-25-2024

Jan 25, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 10:40 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.642

$2.641

0.04%

$0.001

26,870

 

 

WTI

$76.25

$75.09

1.54%

$1.16

171,207

 

 

Brent

$81.21

$80.04

1.46%

$1.17

10,957

 

 

ULSD

$2.750

$2.682

2.53%

$0.068

6,847

 

 

RBOB

$2.225

$2.210

0.69%

$0.015

6,250

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.94

$4.95

-0.20%

-$0.01

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.10

$24.77

1.32%

$0.33

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$45.30

$39.85

13.69%

$5.46

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/19/24

620

1

-151

01/20/23

 

 

Canada

01/19/24

223

10

-18

01/20/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/16/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,367

87,989

87,980

9

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

78,781

78,400

78,635

-235

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

390,991

369,210

380,686

-11,476

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

288,228

244,001

209,267

34,734

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

131,595

121,958

124,395

-2,437

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,346

40,531

40,761

-230

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

141,159

140,348

140,781

-433

 

 

RBOB

356,461

333,987

339,072

-5,085

 

 

HSC Basis

744,187

734,888

736,638

-1,750

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/25/19

 

 

 

1/19/24

1/12/24

Net Change

% Change

1/20/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

657

715

-58

-8.11%

622

5.63%

607

8.17%

 

 

Midwest

788

873

-85

-9.74%

749

5.21%

719

9.54%

 

 

Mountain

194

208

-14

-6.73%

140

38.57%

142

36.62%

 

 

Pacific

228

257

-29

-11.28%

150

52.00%

203

12.43%

 

 

South

990

1,128

-138

-12.23%

1,067

-7.22%

957

3.45%

 

 

    Salt

269

332

-63

-18.98%

310

-13.23%

290

-7.37%

 

 

    Non_Salt

721

796

-75

-9.42%

757

-4.76%

666

8.19%

 

 

Total

2,856

3,182

-326

-10.25%

2,729

4.65%

2,629

8.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/24/24

1/23/24

% Change

Change

12/22/23

% Change

1/25/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$50.98

$45.50

12.05%

$5.48

$52.27

-2.48%

$81.22

-37.24%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$61.99

$59.54

4.12%

$2.45

$74.01

-16.24%

$67.85

-8.64%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$60.34

$52.19

15.61%

$8.15

$45.30

33.20%

$78.03

-22.66%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$44.74

$40.08

11.64%

$4.67

$45.21

-1.04%

$70.18

-36.24%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$76.40

$68.91

10.85%

$7.48

$91.11

-16.15%

$137.73

-44.53%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$113.75

$105.49

7.83%

$8.26

$83.76

35.80%

$106.53

6.77%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$67.21

$60.40

11.28%

$6.81

$69.05

-2.66%

$112.18

-40.08%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/24/24

1/23/24

% Change

Change

12/22/23

% Change

1/25/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$2.641

$2.450

7.80%

$0.19

$2.49

6.06%

$4.30

-38.62%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.159

-$0.163

-2.70%

$0.00

-$0.06

152.95%

-$0.01

1788.10%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$0.308

$0.296

-3.70%

$0.01

$0.33

-7.60%

$1.00

-69.31%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.566

-$0.602

-6.03%

$0.04

-$0.33

72.70%

-$0.27

111.47%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$5.169

$5.142

0.53%

$0.03

$7.36

-29.72%

$11.98

-56.85%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$0.777

-$0.704

10.39%

-$0.07

-$0.96

-19.50%

-$1.27

-38.73%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$1.800

$1.376

30.80%

$0.42

$1.20

50.41%

$2.68

-32.92%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/24/24

1/23/24

% Change

Change

12/22/23

% Change

1/25/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.839

$0.825

1.72%

$0.01

$0.67

26.23%

$0.91

-8.09%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.840

$0.840

-0.07%

$0.00

$0.67

25.28%

$0.93

-10.09%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.199

$0.189

5.39%

$0.01

$0.18

10.46%

$0.27

-27.64%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.492

$1.480

0.84%

$0.01

$1.47

1.50%

$1.60

-6.97%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$1.113

$1.046

6.35%

$0.07

$0.95

16.52%

$1.06

4.53%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.170

$6.110

0.98%

$0.06

$6.60

-6.52%

$6.23

-0.88%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.950

$5.840

1.88%

$0.11

$6.22

-4.33%

$5.88

1.27%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/24/24

1/23/24

% Change

Change

12/22/23

% Change

1/25/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$75.09

$74.37

0.96%

$0.72

$73.73

1.84%

$76.31

-1.60%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$80.04

$79.55

0.61%

$0.49

$78.80

1.57%

$81.27

-1.51%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$19.22

-$19.16

0.27%

-$0.05

-$19.65

-2.21%

-$21.31

-9.81%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$77.87

$76.98

1.14%

$0.89

$77.64

0.29%

$78.71

-1.06%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$75.02

$74.16

1.14%

$0.85

$73.74

1.74%

$73.28

2.37%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$75.81

$75.06

0.98%

$0.74

$74.04

2.39%

$73.12

3.68%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$78.04

$77.55

0.63%

$0.49

$76.80

1.61%

$78.25

-0.27%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/24/24

1/23/24

% Change

Change

12/22/23

% Change

1/25/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.68

$2.69

-0.33%

-$0.01

$2.64

1.51%

$2.82

-4.79%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.21

$2.23

-0.94%

-$0.02

$2.14

3.36%

$2.22

-0.32%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.11

$2.13

-0.98%

-$0.02

$2.04

3.53%

$2.12

-0.33%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.55

$2.74

-6.96%

-$0.19

$2.44

4.63%

$3.52

-27.41%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.61

$1.59

1.07%

$0.02

$1.62

-0.31%

$1.96

-17.65%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$757.73

$759.60

-0.25%

-$1.87

$731.76

3.55%

$752.98

0.63%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$98.61

$99.40

-0.80%

-$0.79

$100.59

-1.97%

$100.24

-1.63%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/24/24

1/23/24

% Change

Change

12/22/23

% Change

1/25/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

63.81%

67.33%

-5.23%

-3.52%

72.42%

-11.89%

57.95%

10.11%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

104.58%

99.33%

5.29%

5.25%

106.26%

-1.58%

134.86%

-22.45%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

106.09%

108.25%

-2.00%

-2.16%

98.47%

7.74%

81.98%

29.41%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

71.85%

73.16%

-1.79%

-1.31%

74.96%

-4.15%

60.42%

18.92%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

65.34%

71.22%

-8.26%

-5.88%

61.29%

6.61%

41.92%

55.87%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

47.94%

70.87%

-32.36%

-22.93%

71.70%

-33.14%

30.35%

57.96%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

273.66%

292.64%

-6.49%

-18.98%

137.18%

99.49%

61.11%

347.82%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/24/24

1/23/24

% Change

Change

12/22/23

% Change

1/25/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 28.90

EUR 27.20

6.27%

EUR 1.71

EUR 34.82

-17.01%

EUR 66.90

-56.80%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 70.33

GBP 65.45

7.47%

GBP 4.89

GBP 85.62

-17.85%

GBP 171.29

-58.94%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 66.45

EUR 62.47

6.37%

EUR 3.98

EUR 89.07

-25.40%

EUR 177.14

-62.49%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 64.81

GBP 61.06

6.13%

GBP 3.74

GBP 84.14

-22.97%

GBP 168.28

-61.49%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 65.50

EUR 62.60

4.63%

EUR 2.90

EUR 90.67

-27.75%

EUR 245.53

-73.32%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 89.39

EUR 88.77

0.71%

EUR 0.63

EUR 109.95

-18.69%

EUR 178.41

-49.89%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$11.09

$10.65

4.06%

$0.43

$12.07

-8.18%

$21.33

-48.03%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/24/24

1/23/24

% Change

Change

12/22/23

% Change

1/25/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$28.90

$27.20

6.27%

$1.71

$34.82

-17.01%

$66.90

-56.80%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$70.33

$65.45

7.47%

$4.89

$85.62

-17.85%

$171.29

-58.94%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$66.45

$62.47

6.37%

$3.98

$89.07

-25.40%

$177.14

-62.49%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$64.81

$61.06

6.13%

$3.74

$84.14

-22.97%

$168.28

-61.49%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$65.50

$62.60

4.63%

$2.90

$90.67

-27.75%

$245.53

-73.32%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$89.39

$88.77

0.71%

$0.63

$109.95

-18.69%

$178.41

-49.89%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$11.09

$10.65

4.06%

$0.43

$12.07

-8.18%

$21.33

-48.03%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-7

-2

6

-16

-11

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

0

0

-6

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-6

0

-9

-17

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

1

-5

-4

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

292

8

74

2,838

-425

69

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

290

26

80

2,626

-309

20

-11.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

390

93

178

2,917

-396

-57

-12.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

439

122

210

3,147

-451

-224

-13.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

178

31

57

1,389

-110

-10

-7.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E S Central

294

107

165

1,829

-115

98

-6.00%

6.00%

 

 

W S Central

243

107

164

1,311

17

164

1.00%

14.00%

 

 

Mountain

231

15

15

2,532

-238

-195

-9.00%

-7.00%

 

 

Pacific

132

5

-15

1,434

-191

-195

-12.00%

-12.00%

 

 

United States

262

53

96

2,104

-229

-39

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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