Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-26-2024

Jan 26, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:15 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.561

$2.571

-0.39%

-$0.010

9,052

 

 

WTI

$77.17

$77.36

-0.25%

-$0.19

111,531

 

 

Brent

$82.42

$82.43

-0.01%

-$0.01

4,601

 

 

ULSD

$2.776

$2.795

-0.71%

-$0.020

5,158

 

 

RBOB

$2.261

$2.264

-0.17%

-$0.004

1,716

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.25

$5.07

3.55%

$0.18

Mar-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.30

$25.50

-0.82%

-$0.21

Mar-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$43.76

$45.48

-3.77%

-$1.72

Feb-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/19/24

620

1

-151

01/20/23

 

 

Canada

01/19/24

223

10

-18

01/20/23

 

 

International

Dec

955

-23

55

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/16/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,367

87,989

87,980

9

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

78,781

78,400

78,635

-235

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

390,991

369,210

380,686

-11,476

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

288,228

244,001

209,267

34,734

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

131,595

121,958

124,395

-2,437

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,346

40,531

40,761

-230

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

141,159

140,348

140,781

-433

 

 

RBOB

356,461

333,987

339,072

-5,085

 

 

HSC Basis

744,187

734,888

736,638

-1,750

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/25/19

 

 

 

1/19/24

1/12/24

Net Change

% Change

1/20/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

657

715

-58

-8.11%

622

5.63%

607

8.17%

 

 

Midwest

788

873

-85

-9.74%

749

5.21%

719

9.54%

 

 

Mountain

194

208

-14

-6.73%

140

38.57%

142

36.62%

 

 

Pacific

228

257

-29

-11.28%

150

52.00%

203

12.43%

 

 

South

990

1,128

-138

-12.23%

1,067

-7.22%

957

3.45%

 

 

    Salt

269

332

-63

-18.98%

310

-13.23%

290

-7.37%

 

 

    Non_Salt

721

796

-75

-9.42%

757

-4.76%

666

8.19%

 

 

Total

2,856

3,182

-326

-10.25%

2,729

4.65%

2,629

8.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/25/24

1/24/24

% Change

Change

12/26/23

% Change

1/26/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-24

$49.24

$50.98

-3.41%

-$1.74

$48.48

1.56%

$79.23

-37.85%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-24

$58.11

$61.99

-6.27%

-$3.88

$66.04

-12.01%

$67.52

-13.94%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-24

$38.00

$60.34

-37.03%

-$22.34

$40.50

-6.18%

$72.38

-47.50%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-24

$42.42

$44.74

-5.19%

-$2.32

$41.19

2.97%

$68.18

-37.78%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-24

$73.49

$76.40

-3.80%

-$2.90

$82.27

-10.66%

$134.64

-45.41%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-24

$113.57

$113.75

-0.16%

-$0.18

$71.26

59.37%

$101.46

11.93%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-24

$65.58

$67.21

-2.43%

-$1.63

$63.07

3.99%

$111.35

-41.10%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/25/24

1/24/24

% Change

Change

12/26/23

% Change

1/26/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-24

$2.571

$2.641

-2.65%

-$0.07

$2.42

6.28%

$4.28

-39.93%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-24

-$0.095

-$0.159

-39.85%

$0.06

-$0.09

2.47%

$0.03

-453.33%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-24

$0.513

$0.308

-39.98%

$0.21

$0.30

70.45%

$0.95

-46.18%

 

 

Waha

Feb-24

-$0.366

-$0.566

-35.42%

$0.20

-$0.42

-12.91%

-$0.21

75.35%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-24

$5.064

$5.169

-2.04%

-$0.11

$7.29

-30.51%

$12.20

-58.48%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-24

-$0.873

-$0.777

12.35%

-$0.10

-$1.00

-13.10%

-$1.17

-25.23%

 

 

Socal

Feb-24

$1.952

$1.800

8.46%

$0.15

$1.05

85.61%

$2.72

-28.22%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/25/24

1/24/24

% Change

Change

12/26/23

% Change

1/26/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-24

$0.850

$0.839

1.21%

$0.01

$0.67

26.34%

$0.95

-10.23%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-24

$0.874

$0.840

4.14%

$0.03

$0.68

29.06%

$0.93

-6.29%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-24

$0.200

$0.199

0.54%

$0.00

$0.19

7.45%

$0.28

-29.04%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-24

$1.525

$1.492

2.16%

$0.03

$1.48

2.87%

$1.64

-7.07%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-24

$1.051

$1.113

-5.50%

-$0.06

$0.98

6.79%

$1.08

-2.36%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-24

$6.220

$6.170

0.81%

$0.05

$6.60

-5.75%

$5.70

9.09%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-24

$5.990

$5.950

0.67%

$0.04

$6.20

-3.37%

$6.10

-1.81%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/25/24

1/24/24

% Change

Change

12/26/23

% Change

1/26/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-24

$77.36

$75.09

2.93%

$2.27

$75.71

2.18%

$76.66

0.91%

 

 

Brent

Mar-24

$82.43

$80.04

2.90%

$2.39

$80.85

1.95%

$81.79

0.78%

 

 

WCS

Mar-24

-$18.32

-$19.22

-4.87%

$0.89

-$16.98

7.93%

-$21.60

-15.18%

 

 

LLS

Mar-24

$79.71

$77.87

2.32%

$1.85

$78.22

1.91%

$78.86

1.09%

 

 

Mars

Mar-24

$76.45

$75.02

1.88%

$1.43

$75.41

1.38%

$73.42

4.13%

 

 

Sour

Mar-24

$77.69

$75.81

2.42%

$1.88

$75.60

2.76%

$74.30

4.56%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-24

$80.43

$78.04

2.97%

$2.39

$78.85

2.00%

$78.48

2.48%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/25/24

1/24/24

% Change

Change

12/26/23

% Change

1/26/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-24

$2.80

$2.68

4.33%

$0.12

$2.64

5.83%

$2.85

-1.93%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.26

$2.21

2.03%

$0.05

$2.17

4.05%

$2.27

-0.35%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-24

$2.16

$2.11

2.13%

$0.04

$2.07

4.25%

$2.17

-0.37%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-24

$2.65

$2.55

3.92%

$0.10

$2.47

7.32%

$2.63

0.72%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-24

$1.59

$1.61

-1.24%

-$0.02

$1.63

-2.63%

$2.00

-20.38%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-24

$780.72

$757.73

3.03%

$22.99

$721.85

8.16%

$753.49

3.61%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-24

$100.46

$98.61

1.88%

$1.85

$98.99

1.49%

$95.86

4.80%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/25/24

1/24/24

% Change

Change

12/26/23

% Change

1/26/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-24

64.82%

63.81%

1.58%

1.01%

74.47%

-12.96%

58.05%

11.66%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-24

100.66%

104.58%

-3.75%

-3.92%

108.94%

-7.60%

136.54%

-26.28%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-24

97.44%

106.09%

-8.15%

-8.65%

101.10%

-3.62%

79.63%

22.37%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-24

71.98%

71.85%

0.18%

0.13%

79.70%

-9.69%

57.64%

24.88%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-24

63.89%

65.34%

-2.22%

-1.45%

60.07%

6.36%

41.83%

52.74%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-24

78.98%

47.94%

64.75%

31.04%

79.76%

-0.98%

39.56%

99.65%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-24

335.75%

273.66%

22.69%

62.09%

161.94%

107.33%

58.25%

476.39%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/25/24

1/24/24

% Change

Change

12/26/23

% Change

1/26/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-24

EUR 27.60

EUR 28.90

-4.50%

-EUR 1.30

EUR 34.48

-19.95%

EUR 65.00

-57.54%

 

 

NBP

Mar-24

GBP 66.99

GBP 70.33

-4.75%

-GBP 3.34

GBP 85.93

-22.04%

GBP 168.85

-60.32%

 

 

German Base

Mar-24

EUR 62.54

EUR 66.45

-5.89%

-EUR 3.91

EUR 88.20

-29.09%

EUR 179.68

-65.19%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-24

GBP 61.13

GBP 64.81

-5.68%

-GBP 3.68

GBP 82.95

-26.30%

GBP 163.87

-62.70%

 

 

French Base

Mar-24

EUR 63.57

EUR 65.50

-2.96%

-EUR 1.94

EUR 89.35

-28.86%

EUR 245.73

-74.13%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-24

EUR 89.40

EUR 89.39

0.01%

EUR 0.01

EUR 108.63

-17.70%

EUR 176.86

-49.45%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-24

$10.10

$11.09

-8.90%

-$0.99

$12.32

-18.06%

$22.88

-55.87%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/25/24

1/24/24

% Change

Change

12/26/23

% Change

1/26/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-24

$27.60

$28.90

-4.50%

-$1.30

$34.48

-19.95%

$65.00

-57.54%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-24

$66.99

$70.33

-4.75%

-$3.34

$85.93

-22.04%

$168.85

-60.32%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-24

$62.54

$66.45

-5.89%

-$3.91

$88.20

-29.09%

$179.68

-65.19%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-24

$61.13

$64.81

-5.68%

-$3.68

$82.95

-26.30%

$163.87

-62.70%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-24

$63.57

$65.50

-2.96%

-$1.94

$89.35

-28.86%

$245.73

-74.13%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$89.40

$89.39

0.01%

$0.01

$108.63

-17.70%

$176.86

-49.45%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-24

$10.10

$11.09

-8.90%

-$0.99

$12.32

-18.06%

$22.88

-55.87%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-7

-2

6

-16

-11

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

0

0

-6

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-6

0

-9

-17

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

1

-5

-4

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

292

8

74

2,838

-425

69

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

290

26

80

2,626

-309

20

-11.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

390

93

178

2,917

-396

-57

-12.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

439

122

210

3,147

-451

-224

-13.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

178

31

57

1,389

-110

-10

-7.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E S Central

294

107

165

1,829

-115

98

-6.00%

6.00%

 

 

W S Central

243

107

164

1,311

17

164

1.00%

14.00%

 

 

Mountain

231

15

15

2,532

-238

-195

-9.00%

-7.00%

 

 

Pacific

132

5

-15

1,434

-191

-195

-12.00%

-12.00%

 

 

United States

262

53

96

2,104

-229

-39

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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