Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-28-2025

Jan 28, 2025

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:06 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.593

$3.697

-2.81%

-$0.104

3,251

 

 

WTI

$73.69

$73.17

0.71%

$0.52

64,900

 

 

Brent

$77.67

$77.08

0.77%

$0.59

7,739

 

 

ULSD

$2.479

$2.460

0.78%

$0.019

1,962

 

 

RBOB

$2.044

$2.028

0.77%

$0.016

875

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.98

$3.91

1.79%

$0.07

Mar-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.98

$17.82

0.91%

$0.16

Mar-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$42.62

$47.98

-11.16%

-$5.36

Feb-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/24/25

576

-4

-45

01/27/24

 

 

Canada

01/24/25

245

16

15

01/27/24

 

 

International

Dec

909

-10

-46

Dec

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/21/2025

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

83,705

83,306

83,163

143

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

74,904

74,485

74,037

448

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

337,797

326,735

326,736

-1

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

327,153

279,757

264,766

14,991

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

185,474

177,538

177,863

-325

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,323

35,298

35,978

-680

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

143,330

142,484

143,141

-657

 

 

RBOB

433,059

406,292

416,700

-10,408

 

 

HSC Basis

882,712

874,326

870,241

4,085

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Brent

$82.00

$81.00

$74.00

$66.00

 

 

Gasoline

$3.50

$3.30

$3.20

$3.00

 

 

Crude Oil Production

$12.90

$13.20

$13.50

$13.60

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

$4.00

 

 

LNG Exports

12.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Natural gas

42.00%

43.00%

41.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

17.00%

16.00%

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

27.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/17/20

 

 

 

1/17/25

1/10/25

Net Change

% Change

1/19/24

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

613

669

-56

-8.37%

657

-6.70%

645

-4.96%

 

 

Midwest

744

808

-64

-7.92%

788

-5.58%

767

-2.95%

 

 

Mountain

229

240

-11

-4.58%

194

18.04%

160

43.48%

 

 

Pacific

269

283

-14

-4.95%

228

17.98%

215

25.23%

 

 

South

1,037

1,114

-77

-6.91%

990

4.75%

1,015

2.19%

 

 

    Salt

297

326

-29

-8.90%

269

10.41%

295

0.75%

 

 

    Non_Salt

739

788

-49

-6.22%

721

2.50%

720

2.67%

 

 

Total

2,892

3,115

-223

-7.16%

2,856

1.26%

2,801

3.26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/27/25

1/24/25

% Change

Change

12/26/24

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-25

$50.29

$55.89

-10.01%

-$5.59

$53.76

-6.44%

$57.89

-13.13%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-25

$43.31

$50.02

-13.42%

-$6.71

$56.10

-22.79%

$74.54

-41.89%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-25

$35.00

$37.55

-6.80%

-$2.55

$34.25

2.18%

$67.64

-48.25%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-25

$45.29

$50.21

-9.80%

-$4.92

$44.96

0.75%

$51.57

-12.17%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-25

$109.84

$115.50

-4.90%

-$5.66

$100.01

9.82%

$94.04

16.80%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-25

$63.93

$68.74

-6.99%

-$4.80

$51.54

24.04%

$127.57

-49.88%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-25

$93.41

$99.77

-6.38%

-$6.36

$80.89

15.47%

$81.16

15.09%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/27/25

1/24/25

% Change

Change

12/26/24

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-25

$3.697

$4.027

-8.19%

-$0.33

$3.32

11.39%

$3.73

-1.02%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-25

-$0.177

-$0.228

-22.31%

$0.05

$0.05

-473.21%

$0.17

-202.25%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-25

$0.626

$0.547

-12.54%

$0.08

$0.70

-10.60%

$0.88

-28.73%

 

 

Waha

Feb-25

-$0.895

-$1.166

-23.25%

$0.27

-$0.43

109.88%

-$0.07

1265.65%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-25

$9.343

$9.563

-2.30%

-$0.22

$7.82

19.49%

$7.76

20.42%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-25

-$2.433

-$2.570

-5.32%

$0.14

-$1.70

43.30%

-$1.10

121.59%

 

 

Socal

Feb-25

$0.487

$0.492

-0.96%

$0.00

$0.64

-23.44%

$2.79

-82.54%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/27/25

1/24/25

% Change

Change

12/26/24

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-25

$0.879

$0.906

-2.99%

-$0.03

$0.77

14.92%

$0.79

11.43%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-25

$0.894

$0.923

-3.06%

-$0.03

$0.78

14.81%

$0.78

15.24%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-25

$0.250

$0.264

-5.25%

-$0.01

$0.24

4.08%

$0.25

-0.35%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-25

$1.522

$1.555

-2.09%

-$0.03

$1.46

4.18%

$1.43

6.77%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-25

$1.089

$1.090

-0.12%

$0.00

$1.10

-0.89%

$0.93

16.51%

 

 

Far East Propane

Feb-25

$6.213

$6.229

-0.26%

-$0.02

$5.94

4.68%

$5.80

7.05%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Feb-25

$6.300

$6.330

-0.47%

-$0.03

$6.10

3.28%

$5.49

14.73%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/27/25

1/24/25

% Change

Change

12/26/24

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-25

$73.17

$74.66

-2.04%

-$1.49

$69.23

5.69%

$73.19

-0.03%

 

 

Brent

Mar-25

$77.08

$78.50

-1.84%

-$1.42

$72.85

5.81%

$78.16

-1.38%

 

 

WCS

Mar-25

-$13.10

-$13.20

-0.76%

$0.10

-$14.50

-9.66%

-$15.44

-15.13%

 

 

LLS

Mar-25

$75.84

$75.93

-0.11%

-$0.08

$70.87

7.02%

$75.03

1.08%

 

 

Mars

Mar-25

$74.04

$74.23

-0.25%

-$0.18

$69.07

7.20%

$70.94

4.38%

 

 

Sour

Mar-25

$74.66

$74.63

0.03%

$0.03

$69.69

7.14%

$73.00

2.28%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-25

$75.08

$76.50

-1.89%

-$1.42

$70.85

5.97%

$76.16

-1.42%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/27/25

1/24/25

% Change

Change

12/26/24

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-25

$2.40

$2.51

-4.43%

-$0.11

$2.21

8.31%

$2.53

-5.26%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-25

$2.03

$2.03

-0.05%

$0.00

$1.96

3.68%

$2.09

-3.06%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-25

$1.93

$1.93

-0.05%

$0.00

$1.86

3.88%

$1.99

-3.21%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-25

$2.25

$2.30

-2.17%

-$0.05

$2.13

5.88%

$2.38

-5.66%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-25

$1.70

$1.72

-1.16%

-$0.02

$1.66

2.71%

$1.56

9.03%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-25

$667.51

$680.90

-1.97%

-$13.40

$623.82

7.00%

$698.94

-4.50%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-25

$91.42

$94.35

-3.10%

-$2.93

$87.38

4.62%

$95.08

-3.85%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/27/25

1/24/25

% Change

Change

12/26/24

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-25

64.30%

65.28%

-1.50%

-0.98%

65.61%

-2.00%

47.38%

35.71%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-25

92.10%

95.95%

-4.01%

-3.85%

101.50%

-9.26%

64.42%

42.97%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-25

175.36%

188.52%

-6.98%

-13.16%

188.58%

-7.01%

53.12%

230.12%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-25

70.81%

72.78%

-2.71%

-1.97%

76.59%

-7.55%

50.54%

40.11%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-25

53.51%

53.47%

0.07%

0.04%

57.03%

-6.17%

36.02%

48.56%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-25

309.98%

296.86%

4.42%

13.12%

225.76%

37.31%

17.73%

1648.34%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-25

47.71%

46.09%

3.51%

1.62%

25.03%

90.61%

68.77%

-30.62%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/27/25

1/24/25

% Change

Change

12/26/24

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-25

EUR 48.00

EUR 49.86

-3.73%

-EUR 1.86

EUR 45.98

4.40%

EUR 34.11

40.73%

 

 

NBP

Mar-25

GBP 118.43

GBP 123.15

-3.83%

-GBP 4.72

GBP 112.93

4.87%

GBP 87.41

35.49%

 

 

German Base

Mar-25

EUR 92.35

EUR 96.63

-4.42%

-EUR 4.28

EUR 93.43

-1.16%

EUR 84.11

9.80%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-25

GBP 98.25

GBP 97.05

1.24%

GBP 1.20

GBP 90.75

8.26%

GBP 79.85

23.04%

 

 

French Base

Mar-25

EUR 76.69

EUR 77.02

-0.44%

-EUR 0.34

EUR 80.92

-5.23%

EUR 86.34

-11.18%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-25

EUR 134.48

EUR 138.45

-2.87%

-EUR 3.97

EUR 125.59

7.08%

EUR 98.81

36.11%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-25

$13.99

$13.88

0.79%

$0.11

$14.22

-1.67%

$12.49

12.00%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/27/25

1/24/25

% Change

Change

12/26/24

% Change

1/26/24

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Mar-25

$48.00

$49.86

-3.73%

-$1.86

$45.98

4.40%

$34.11

40.73%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Mar-25

$118.43

$123.15

-3.83%

-$4.72

$112.93

4.87%

$87.41

35.49%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Mar-25

$92.35

$96.63

-4.42%

-$4.28

$93.43

-1.16%

$84.11

9.80%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Mar-25

$98.25

$97.05

1.24%

$1.20

$90.75

8.26%

$79.85

23.04%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Mar-25

$76.69

$77.02

-0.44%

-$0.34

$80.92

-5.23%

$86.34

-11.18%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-25

$134.48

$138.45

-2.87%

-$3.97

$125.59

7.08%

$98.81

36.11%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Mar-25

$13.99

$13.88

0.79%

$0.11

$14.22

-1.67%

$12.49

12.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/25/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-7

-3

4

-24

-5

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

0

-7

0

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-1

1

-10

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

1

-6

-1

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/25/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

332

48

53

3,270

-196

246

-6.00%

8.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

318

54

55

2,954

-170

151

-5.00%

5.00%

 

 

E N Central

373

77

82

3,206

-318

101

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

W N Central

384

70

64

3,390

-432

46

-11.00%

1.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

209

63

56

1,573

-30

86

-2.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

276

91

72

1,922

-154

-28

-7.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

216

83

63

1,198

-191

-205

-14.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Mountain

264

52

77

2,637

-284

-26

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Pacific

128

3

12

1,532

-182

17

-11.00%

1.00%

 

 

United States

265

57

57

2,284

-197

45

-8.00%

2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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