Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-01-2024

Jul 1, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:28 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.564

$2.601

-1.42%

-$0.037

57,059

 

 

WTI

$81.99

$81.54

0.55%

$0.45

108,755

 

 

Brent

$85.97

$86.41

-0.51%

-$0.44

14,175

 

 

ULSD

$2.575

$2.517

2.32%

$0.058

13,010

 

 

RBOB

$2.548

$2.529

0.75%

$0.019

17,954

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.36

$4.36

0.00%

$0.00

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.73

$24.23

2.05%

$0.50

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/28/24

581

-7

-93

07/01/23

 

 

Canada

06/28/24

176

10

9

07/01/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/21/19

 

 

 

6/21/24

6/14/24

Net Change

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

646

631

15

2.38%

623

3.69%

547

18.10%

 

 

Midwest

753

736

17

2.31%

685

9.93%

624

20.63%

 

 

Mountain

237

230

7

3.04%

165

43.64%

154

53.50%

 

 

Pacific

283

279

4

1.43%

204

38.73%

246

14.85%

 

 

South

1,179

1,168

11

0.94%

1,128

4.52%

1,027

14.82%

 

 

    Salt

334

337

-3

-0.89%

330

1.21%

300

11.41%

 

 

    Non_Salt

845

831

14

1.68%

798

5.89%

727

16.23%

 

 

Total

3,097

3,045

52

1.71%

2,805

10.41%

2,598

19.19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/28/24

6/27/24

% Change

Change

5/30/24

% Change

6/29/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$65.84

$64.96

1.36%

$0.88

$64.89

1.46%

$59.69

10.29%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$90.52

$96.91

-6.59%

-$6.39

$122.86

-26.32%

$82.92

9.16%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$65.00

$67.13

-3.18%

-$2.13

$56.36

15.33%

$103.24

-37.04%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$62.91

$62.32

0.95%

$0.59

$65.18

-3.48%

$68.47

-8.12%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$64.77

$64.42

0.55%

$0.35

$57.12

13.40%

$63.18

2.52%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$93.85

$99.00

-5.20%

-$5.15

$86.18

8.91%

$155.24

-39.54%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$61.63

$60.40

2.03%

$1.23

$58.03

6.19%

$60.67

1.57%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/28/24

6/27/24

% Change

Change

5/30/24

% Change

6/29/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.601

$2.685

-3.13%

-$0.08

$2.65

-1.74%

$3.36

-22.47%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.315

-$0.319

-1.32%

$0.00

-$0.28

13.89%

-$0.20

59.52%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.408

-$0.388

-5.00%

-$0.02

-$0.48

-14.41%

-$0.19

112.38%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.495

-$1.402

-6.61%

-$0.09

-$1.19

25.12%

-$0.29

407.40%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.382

-$0.379

-0.82%

$0.00

-$0.23

65.28%

-$0.04

751.45%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$2.105

-$2.132

-1.23%

$0.03

-$1.77

18.74%

-$1.36

54.87%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.534

$0.543

-1.69%

-$0.01

$0.58

-8.03%

$1.64

-67.48%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/28/24

6/27/24

% Change

Change

5/30/24

% Change

6/29/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.844

$0.836

0.90%

$0.01

$0.72

16.81%

$0.60

40.02%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.846

$0.850

-0.45%

$0.00

$0.73

16.14%

$0.60

40.34%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.170

$0.168

0.89%

$0.00

$0.19

-11.65%

$0.24

-29.01%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.570

$1.568

0.16%

$0.00

$1.51

4.32%

$1.30

20.34%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.894

$0.889

0.53%

$0.00

$0.83

7.31%

$0.68

31.86%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$6.410

$6.365

0.71%

$0.04

$6.15

4.31%

$4.56

40.49%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.900

$5.870

0.51%

$0.03

$5.65

4.43%

$4.23

39.52%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/28/24

6/27/24

% Change

Change

5/30/24

% Change

6/29/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$81.54

$81.74

-0.25%

-$0.20

$77.54

5.16%

$68.05

19.82%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$85.41

$86.39

-1.15%

-$0.98

$81.88

4.31%

$72.52

17.77%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$14.00

-$13.30

4.99%

-$0.70

-$11.05

26.69%

-$11.98

16.81%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$83.12

$82.53

0.71%

$0.59

$80.70

3.00%

$70.39

18.08%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$81.22

$80.58

0.79%

$0.64

$78.70

3.21%

$66.83

21.53%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$81.67

$80.90

0.94%

$0.77

$78.83

3.60%

$67.48

21.03%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$83.41

$84.39

-1.17%

-$0.98

$79.88

4.42%

$70.52

18.28%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/28/24

6/27/24

% Change

Change

5/30/24

% Change

6/29/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.52

$2.56

-1.48%

-$0.04

$2.44

3.36%

$2.32

8.94%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.51

$2.57

-2.26%

-$0.06

$2.41

4.40%

$2.16

16.28%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.41

$2.47

-2.35%

-$0.06

$2.31

4.59%

$2.06

17.07%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.47

$2.48

-0.36%

-$0.01

$2.34

5.78%

$2.14

15.63%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$1.98

$1.98

-0.25%

$0.00

$1.82

8.64%

$1.65

19.92%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$742.58

$745.00

-0.32%

-$2.42

$698.45

6.32%

$633.19

17.28%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$100.40

$100.52

-0.12%

-$0.12

$96.57

3.97%

$88.30

13.71%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/28/24

6/27/24

% Change

Change

5/30/24

% Change

6/29/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

55.21%

54.86%

0.64%

0.35%

58.66%

-5.88%

43.44%

27.09%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

66.20%

69.18%

-4.31%

-2.98%

64.10%

3.28%

43.43%

52.43%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

119.96%

109.19%

9.86%

10.77%

91.27%

31.43%

44.81%

167.71%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

63.34%

68.36%

-7.34%

-5.02%

64.90%

-2.40%

43.32%

46.21%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

97.34%

95.48%

1.95%

1.86%

85.74%

13.53%

45.66%

113.18%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

86.38%

132.75%

-34.93%

-46.37%

116.94%

-26.13%

86.55%

-0.20%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

361.15%

334.24%

8.05%

26.91%

374.79%

-3.64%

186.27%

93.89%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/28/24

6/27/24

% Change

Change

5/30/24

% Change

6/29/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 34.50

EUR 34.55

-0.13%

-EUR 0.04

EUR 35.36

-2.43%

EUR 49.67

-30.53%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 81.30

GBP 81.53

-0.28%

-GBP 0.23

GBP 85.31

-4.70%

GBP 124.46

-34.68%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 76.92

EUR 75.62

1.71%

EUR 1.29

EUR 85.04

-9.55%

EUR 123.21

-37.57%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 71.81

GBP 72.85

-1.43%

-GBP 1.04

GBP 76.00

-5.51%

GBP 105.05

-31.64%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 51.61

EUR 47.02

9.76%

EUR 4.59

EUR 48.60

6.20%

EUR 118.87

-56.59%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 102.80

EUR 103.46

-0.64%

-EUR 0.66

EUR 108.25

-5.04%

EUR 132.62

-22.48%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.23

$12.36

-1.10%

-$0.14

$12.04

1.59%

$15.64

-21.81%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/28/24

6/27/24

% Change

Change

5/30/24

% Change

6/29/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$34.50

$34.55

-0.13%

-$0.04

$35.36

-2.43%

$49.67

-30.53%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$81.30

$81.53

-0.28%

-$0.23

$85.31

-4.70%

$124.46

-34.68%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$76.92

$75.62

1.71%

$1.29

$85.04

-9.55%

$123.21

-37.57%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$71.81

$72.85

-1.43%

-$1.04

$76.00

-5.51%

$105.05

-31.64%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$51.61

$47.02

9.76%

$4.59

$48.60

6.20%

$118.87

-56.59%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$102.80

$103.46

-0.64%

-$0.66

$108.25

-5.04%

$132.62

-22.48%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.23

$12.36

-1.10%

-$0.14

$12.04

1.59%

$15.64

-21.81%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/29/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

38

14

1

126

61

55

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

54

15

13

192

58

91

43.00%

92.00%

 

 

E N Central

51

7

11

233

41

83

21.00%

55.00%

 

 

W N Central

73

16

8

295

38

-15

15.00%

-5.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

112

26

28

775

108

80

16.00%

12.00%

 

 

E S Central

109

27

29

620

144

138

30.00%

29.00%

 

 

W S Central

136

23

-6

1,032

190

56

23.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

87

21

36

370

6

105

2.00%

39.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

20

43

115

-37

65

-24.00%

130.00%

 

 

United States

79

18

19

431

65

75

18.00%

21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/29/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

4

-2

2

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-1

-2

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

3

0

-1

5,395

-1,135

-470

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

-3

1

5,662

-1,121

-875

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

2

-9

-5

4,915

-316

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

6

-5

-3

3,124

-117

-513

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

-2

-1

3,959

-588

-260

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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