Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-02-2024

Jul 2, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:51 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.441

$2.478

-1.49%

-$0.037

26,355

 

 

WTI

$84.23

$83.38

1.02%

$0.85

72,309

 

 

Brent

$87.32

$86.40

1.06%

$0.92

10,346

 

 

ULSD

$2.654

$2.615

1.51%

$0.039

10,503

 

 

RBOB

$2.611

$2.578

1.28%

$0.033

10,946

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.28

$4.28

0.00%

$0.00

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$26.09

$25.51

2.29%

$0.58

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$53.14

$54.73

-2.90%

-$1.59

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/28/24

581

-7

-93

07/01/23

 

 

Canada

06/28/24

176

10

9

07/01/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/21/19

 

 

 

6/21/24

6/14/24

Net Change

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

646

631

15

2.38%

623

3.69%

547

18.10%

 

 

Midwest

753

736

17

2.31%

685

9.93%

624

20.63%

 

 

Mountain

237

230

7

3.04%

165

43.64%

154

53.50%

 

 

Pacific

283

279

4

1.43%

204

38.73%

246

14.85%

 

 

South

1,179

1,168

11

0.94%

1,128

4.52%

1,027

14.82%

 

 

    Salt

334

337

-3

-0.89%

330

1.21%

300

11.41%

 

 

    Non_Salt

845

831

14

1.68%

798

5.89%

727

16.23%

 

 

Total

3,097

3,045

52

1.71%

2,805

10.41%

2,598

19.19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/1/24

6/28/24

% Change

Change

5/31/24

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$58.38

$60.03

-2.75%

-$1.65

$60.85

-4.06%

$53.60

8.93%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$142.44

$163.19

-12.71%

-$20.74

$193.76

-26.48%

$98.84

44.12%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$80.00

$75.65

5.75%

$4.35

$79.11

1.12%

$117.35

-31.83%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$56.04

$57.58

-2.68%

-$1.54

$62.26

-10.00%

$61.70

-9.18%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$56.53

$58.23

-2.92%

-$1.70

$53.86

4.95%

$56.19

0.60%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$130.33

$125.00

4.27%

$5.33

$144.61

-9.87%

$201.53

-35.33%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$54.02

$56.18

-3.84%

-$2.16

$51.79

4.30%

$54.30

-0.52%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/1/24

6/28/24

% Change

Change

5/31/24

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.478

$2.601

-4.73%

-$0.12

$2.66

-6.91%

$3.40

-27.20%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.272

-$0.315

-13.53%

$0.04

-$0.27

0.74%

-$0.19

43.32%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.387

-$0.408

5.37%

$0.02

-$0.46

-15.53%

-$0.19

108.84%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.441

-$1.495

-3.59%

$0.05

-$1.18

22.46%

-$0.28

412.70%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.338

-$0.382

11.72%

$0.04

-$0.26

29.81%

-$0.07

371.37%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$2.002

-$2.105

-4.89%

$0.10

-$1.78

12.76%

-$1.37

45.95%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.507

$0.534

-5.02%

-$0.03

$0.64

-20.63%

$1.61

-68.58%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/1/24

6/28/24

% Change

Change

5/31/24

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.857

$0.849

1.03%

$0.01

$0.73

17.46%

$0.62

39.18%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.857

$0.850

0.88%

$0.01

$0.73

17.22%

$0.62

38.27%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.167

$0.172

-2.96%

-$0.01

$0.20

-14.28%

$0.25

-33.03%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.600

$1.574

1.66%

$0.03

$1.48

8.13%

$1.30

22.88%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.947

$0.941

0.60%

$0.01

$0.83

13.91%

$0.69

37.44%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.450

$6.346

1.64%

$0.10

$6.10

5.74%

$4.71

36.97%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.885

$5.900

-0.26%

-$0.02

$5.54

6.22%

$4.32

36.20%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/1/24

6/28/24

% Change

Change

5/31/24

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$83.38

$81.54

2.21%

$1.84

$76.73

8.67%

$68.45

21.81%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$87.05

$85.41

1.88%

$1.64

$81.11

7.32%

$73.08

19.11%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$14.05

-$14.00

0.36%

-$0.05

-$11.25

24.89%

-$12.64

11.14%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$83.02

$83.12

-0.12%

-$0.10

$79.57

4.34%

$70.86

17.15%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$81.02

$81.22

-0.25%

-$0.20

$77.46

4.59%

$67.38

20.24%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$81.49

$81.67

-0.22%

-$0.18

$77.58

5.04%

$68.21

19.46%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$85.05

$83.41

1.92%

$1.64

$79.11

7.50%

$71.08

19.65%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/1/24

6/28/24

% Change

Change

5/31/24

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.61

$2.54

2.84%

$0.07

$2.40

8.66%

$2.37

10.36%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.57

$2.51

2.31%

$0.06

$2.40

7.00%

$2.19

17.47%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.47

$2.41

2.41%

$0.06

$2.30

7.30%

$2.09

18.31%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.53

$2.47

2.06%

$0.05

$2.35

7.31%

$2.18

15.71%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.90

$1.86

2.15%

$0.04

$1.81

4.97%

$1.62

17.57%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$745.00

$741.00

0.54%

$4.01

$701.28

6.24%

$625.80

19.05%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$100.81

$101.67

-0.84%

-$0.86

$94.34

6.86%

$88.90

13.40%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/1/24

6/28/24

% Change

Change

5/31/24

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

58.86%

55.21%

6.61%

3.65%

55.77%

5.54%

42.54%

38.36%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

65.49%

66.20%

-1.07%

-0.71%

60.80%

7.71%

42.00%

55.93%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

116.93%

119.96%

-2.53%

-3.03%

84.44%

38.48%

44.20%

164.55%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

64.82%

63.34%

2.34%

1.48%

62.26%

4.11%

43.23%

49.94%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

95.42%

97.34%

-1.97%

-1.92%

77.64%

22.90%

45.05%

111.81%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

145.62%

86.38%

68.58%

59.24%

117.86%

23.55%

86.73%

67.90%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

301.89%

361.15%

-16.41%

-59.26%

350.52%

-13.87%

186.80%

61.61%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/1/24

6/28/24

% Change

Change

5/31/24

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 33.44

EUR 34.50

-3.08%

-EUR 1.06

EUR 34.96

-4.34%

EUR 51.19

-34.67%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 78.02

GBP 81.30

-4.04%

-GBP 3.28

GBP 84.14

-7.28%

GBP 125.76

-37.97%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 75.52

EUR 76.92

-1.82%

-EUR 1.40

EUR 83.58

-9.65%

EUR 129.55

-41.71%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 66.88

GBP 71.81

-6.87%

-GBP 4.94

GBP 76.24

-12.28%

GBP 113.09

-40.86%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 50.71

EUR 51.61

-1.75%

-EUR 0.90

EUR 49.27

2.92%

EUR 119.36

-57.52%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 95.06

EUR 102.80

-7.52%

-EUR 7.73

EUR 105.90

-10.23%

EUR 140.96

-32.56%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.29

$12.58

-2.29%

-$0.29

$12.40

-0.89%

$15.85

-22.44%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/1/24

6/28/24

% Change

Change

5/31/24

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$33.44

$34.50

-3.08%

-$1.06

$34.96

-4.34%

$51.19

-34.67%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$78.02

$81.30

-4.04%

-$3.28

$84.14

-7.28%

$125.76

-37.97%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$75.52

$76.92

-1.82%

-$1.40

$83.58

-9.65%

$129.55

-41.71%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$66.88

$71.81

-6.87%

-$4.94

$76.24

-12.28%

$113.09

-40.86%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$50.71

$51.61

-1.75%

-$0.90

$49.27

2.92%

$119.36

-57.52%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$95.06

$102.80

-7.52%

-$7.73

$105.90

-10.23%

$140.96

-32.56%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.29

$12.58

-2.29%

-$0.29

$12.40

-0.89%

$15.85

-22.44%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/29/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

38

14

1

126

61

55

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

54

15

13

192

58

91

43.00%

92.00%

 

 

E N Central

51

7

11

233

41

83

21.00%

55.00%

 

 

W N Central

73

16

8

295

38

-15

15.00%

-5.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

112

26

28

775

108

80

16.00%

12.00%

 

 

E S Central

109

27

29

620

144

138

30.00%

29.00%

 

 

W S Central

136

23

-6

1,032

190

56

23.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

87

21

36

370

6

105

2.00%

39.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

20

43

115

-37

65

-24.00%

130.00%

 

 

United States

79

18

19

431

65

75

18.00%

21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/29/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

4

-2

2

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-1

-2

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

3

0

-1

5,395

-1,135

-470

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

-3

1

5,662

-1,121

-875

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

2

-9

-5

4,915

-316

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

6

-5

-3

3,124

-117

-513

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

-2

-1

3,959

-588

-260

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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