Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-03-2024

Jul 3, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:48 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.452

$2.435

0.70%

$0.017

22,241

 

 

WTI

$82.95

$82.81

0.17%

$0.14

57,779

 

 

Brent

$86.38

$86.24

0.16%

$0.14

8,227

 

 

ULSD

$2.607

$2.630

-0.85%

-$0.022

6,715

 

 

RBOB

$2.563

$2.573

-0.39%

-$0.010

6,853

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.30

$4.33

-0.69%

-$0.03

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.31

$26.06

-2.88%

-$0.75

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$53.16

$53.17

-0.03%

-$0.01

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/28/24

581

-7

-93

07/01/23

 

 

Canada

06/28/24

176

10

9

07/01/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/21/19

 

 

 

6/21/24

6/14/24

Net Change

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

646

631

15

2.38%

623

3.69%

547

18.10%

 

 

Midwest

753

736

17

2.31%

685

9.93%

624

20.63%

 

 

Mountain

237

230

7

3.04%

165

43.64%

154

53.50%

 

 

Pacific

283

279

4

1.43%

204

38.73%

246

14.85%

 

 

South

1,179

1,168

11

0.94%

1,128

4.52%

1,027

14.82%

 

 

    Salt

334

337

-3

-0.89%

330

1.21%

300

11.41%

 

 

    Non_Salt

845

831

14

1.68%

798

5.89%

727

16.23%

 

 

Total

3,097

3,045

52

1.71%

2,805

10.41%

2,598

19.19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/2/24

7/1/24

% Change

Change

6/3/24

% Change

7/3/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$58.41

$58.38

0.04%

$0.02

$62.27

-6.20%

$54.57

7.03%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$131.47

$142.44

-7.71%

-$10.98

$194.19

-32.30%

$100.87

30.34%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$83.22

$80.00

4.03%

$3.22

$82.26

1.17%

$119.92

-30.60%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$55.94

$56.04

-0.18%

-$0.10

$63.57

-12.01%

$62.85

-11.00%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$51.25

$56.53

-9.35%

-$5.28

$54.49

-5.96%

$57.08

-10.22%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$142.75

$130.33

9.53%

$12.41

$145.83

-2.11%

$204.05

-30.04%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$53.69

$54.02

-0.61%

-$0.33

$52.21

2.84%

$56.24

-4.53%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/2/24

7/1/24

% Change

Change

6/3/24

% Change

7/3/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.435

$2.478

-1.74%

-$0.04

$2.80

-13.16%

$3.40

-28.42%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.342

-$0.272

25.52%

-$0.07

-$0.26

32.94%

-$0.20

71.33%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.433

-$0.387

-10.61%

-$0.05

-$0.48

-9.35%

-$0.19

122.60%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.686

-$1.441

-17.01%

-$0.25

-$1.18

43.50%

-$0.32

429.45%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.363

-$0.338

-7.41%

-$0.03

-$0.29

22.92%

-$0.07

400.69%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.906

-$2.002

-4.81%

$0.10

-$1.88

1.54%

-$1.37

38.82%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.782

$0.507

54.18%

$0.27

$0.61

29.04%

$1.64

-52.27%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/2/24

7/1/24

% Change

Change

6/3/24

% Change

7/3/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.846

$0.857

-1.31%

-$0.01

$0.69

22.43%

$0.61

38.12%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.850

$0.857

-0.87%

-$0.01

$0.70

21.67%

$0.61

38.64%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.162

$0.167

-3.00%

-$0.01

$0.20

-18.33%

$0.25

-34.20%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.615

$1.600

0.94%

$0.01

$1.44

12.33%

$1.30

23.78%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.946

$0.947

-0.15%

$0.00

$0.77

22.89%

$0.68

38.61%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.535

$6.450

1.32%

$0.08

$6.00

8.92%

$4.78

36.74%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.910

$5.885

0.43%

$0.03

$5.46

8.17%

$4.28

37.93%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/2/24

7/1/24

% Change

Change

6/3/24

% Change

7/3/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$82.81

$83.38

-0.69%

-$0.57

$74.09

11.77%

$67.34

22.97%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$86.65

$87.05

-0.46%

-$0.40

$78.36

10.58%

$71.99

20.36%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$14.05

-$14.05

0.00%

$0.00

-$11.25

24.89%

-$12.54

12.01%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$84.66

$83.02

1.94%

$1.64

$78.90

7.30%

$69.62

21.61%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$82.61

$81.02

1.92%

$1.59

$76.85

7.49%

$66.88

23.51%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$83.04

$81.49

1.87%

$1.56

$76.78

8.16%

$67.82

22.45%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$84.65

$85.05

-0.47%

-$0.40

$76.36

10.86%

$69.99

20.94%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/2/24

7/1/24

% Change

Change

6/3/24

% Change

7/3/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.63

$2.61

0.73%

$0.02

$2.32

13.61%

$2.32

13.17%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.57

$2.57

0.23%

$0.01

$2.34

10.00%

$2.15

19.67%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.47

$2.47

0.24%

$0.01

$2.24

10.45%

$2.05

20.62%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.62

$2.53

3.80%

$0.10

$2.27

15.51%

$2.18

20.39%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.86

$1.90

-2.11%

-$0.04

$1.79

3.62%

$1.67

11.44%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$768.00

$745.00

3.09%

$23.00

$698.26

9.99%

$636.59

20.64%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$103.90

$100.81

3.06%

$3.09

$94.30

10.18%

$89.53

16.05%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/2/24

7/1/24

% Change

Change

6/3/24

% Change

7/3/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

55.89%

58.86%

-5.05%

-2.97%

52.04%

7.40%

44.78%

24.81%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

62.38%

65.49%

-4.75%

-3.11%

54.99%

13.44%

43.73%

42.65%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

141.67%

116.93%

21.16%

24.74%

82.06%

72.64%

47.84%

196.13%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

62.16%

64.82%

-4.10%

-2.66%

58.50%

6.26%

45.16%

37.64%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

87.15%

95.42%

-8.67%

-8.27%

80.02%

8.91%

46.30%

88.23%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

146.12%

145.62%

0.34%

0.50%

117.59%

24.26%

86.87%

68.21%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

338.95%

301.89%

12.28%

37.06%

352.65%

-3.88%

182.37%

85.86%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/2/24

7/1/24

% Change

Change

6/3/24

% Change

7/3/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 33.55

EUR 33.44

0.33%

EUR 0.11

EUR 36.41

-7.85%

EUR 49.47

-32.18%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 78.46

GBP 78.02

0.57%

GBP 0.44

GBP 88.34

-11.18%

GBP 119.14

-34.15%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 78.14

EUR 75.52

3.47%

EUR 2.62

EUR 87.05

-10.24%

EUR 126.99

-38.47%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 70.32

GBP 66.88

5.16%

GBP 3.45

GBP 80.96

-13.14%

GBP 110.15

-36.16%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 48.11

EUR 50.71

-5.12%

-EUR 2.60

EUR 52.66

-8.64%

EUR 117.71

-59.13%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 101.23

EUR 95.06

6.49%

EUR 6.17

EUR 112.88

-10.32%

EUR 136.77

-25.99%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.44

$12.29

1.24%

$0.15

$12.85

-3.18%

$17.89

-30.45%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/2/24

7/1/24

% Change

Change

6/3/24

% Change

7/3/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$33.55

$33.44

0.33%

$0.11

$36.41

-7.85%

$49.47

-32.18%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$78.46

$78.02

0.57%

$0.44

$88.34

-11.18%

$119.14

-34.15%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$78.14

$75.52

3.47%

$2.62

$87.05

-10.24%

$126.99

-38.47%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$70.32

$66.88

5.16%

$3.45

$80.96

-13.14%

$110.15

-36.16%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$48.11

$50.71

-5.12%

-$2.60

$52.66

-8.64%

$117.71

-59.13%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$101.23

$95.06

6.49%

$6.17

$112.88

-10.32%

$136.77

-25.99%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.44

$12.29

1.24%

$0.15

$12.85

-3.18%

$17.89

-30.45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/29/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

38

14

1

126

61

55

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

54

15

13

192

58

91

43.00%

92.00%

 

 

E N Central

51

7

11

233

41

83

21.00%

55.00%

 

 

W N Central

73

16

8

295

38

-15

15.00%

-5.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

112

26

28

775

108

80

16.00%

12.00%

 

 

E S Central

109

27

29

620

144

138

30.00%

29.00%

 

 

W S Central

136

23

-6

1,032

190

56

23.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

87

21

36

370

6

105

2.00%

39.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

20

43

115

-37

65

-24.00%

130.00%

 

 

United States

79

18

19

431

65

75

18.00%

21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/29/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

4

-2

2

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-1

-2

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

3

0

-1

5,395

-1,135

-470

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

-3

1

5,662

-1,121

-875

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

2

-9

-5

4,915

-316

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

6

-5

-3

3,124

-117

-513

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

-2

-1

3,959

-588

-260

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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