Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-05-2024

Jul 5, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:39 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.363

$2.418

-2.27%

-$0.055

60,867

 

 

WTI

$83.80

$83.88

-0.10%

-$0.08

156,314

 

 

Brent

$87.61

$87.34

0.31%

$0.27

23,961

 

 

ULSD

$2.635

$2.634

0.02%

$0.001

14,293

 

 

RBOB

$2.604

$2.601

0.10%

$0.003

21,008

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.44

$4.32

2.78%

$0.12

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.75

$25.79

-0.16%

-$0.04

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$55.50

$53.23

4.26%

$2.27

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/28/24

581

-7

-93

07/01/23

 

 

Canada

06/28/24

176

10

9

07/01/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/21/19

 

 

 

6/21/24

6/14/24

Net Change

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

646

631

15

2.38%

623

3.69%

547

18.10%

 

 

Midwest

753

736

17

2.31%

685

9.93%

624

20.63%

 

 

Mountain

237

230

7

3.04%

165

43.64%

154

53.50%

 

 

Pacific

283

279

4

1.43%

204

38.73%

246

14.85%

 

 

South

1,179

1,168

11

0.94%

1,128

4.52%

1,027

14.82%

 

 

    Salt

334

337

-3

-0.89%

330

1.21%

300

11.41%

 

 

    Non_Salt

845

831

14

1.68%

798

5.89%

727

16.23%

 

 

Total

3,097

3,045

52

1.71%

2,805

10.41%

2,598

19.19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/3/24

7/2/24

% Change

Change

6/4/24

% Change

7/5/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$60.58

$58.41

3.73%

$2.18

$63.76

-4.98%

$52.97

14.37%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$132.44

$131.47

0.74%

$0.98

$190.64

-30.53%

$95.45

38.75%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$81.63

$83.22

-1.91%

-$1.59

$77.67

5.11%

$116.90

-30.17%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$57.92

$55.94

3.55%

$1.98

$64.98

-10.86%

$61.12

-5.24%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$55.30

$51.25

7.90%

$4.05

$51.90

6.55%

$55.41

-0.21%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$141.64

$142.75

-0.77%

-$1.10

$137.83

2.77%

$194.04

-27.00%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$54.72

$53.69

1.91%

$1.03

$53.61

2.07%

$54.57

0.27%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/3/24

7/2/24

% Change

Change

6/4/24

% Change

7/5/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.418

$2.435

-0.70%

-$0.02

$2.67

-9.44%

$3.38

-28.38%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.323

-$0.342

-5.50%

$0.02

-$0.26

26.47%

-$0.19

68.58%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.460

-$0.433

-5.78%

-$0.03

-$0.50

-8.46%

-$0.19

145.33%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.895

-$1.686

-12.40%

-$0.21

-$1.17

61.97%

-$0.29

548.00%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.400

-$0.363

-10.23%

-$0.04

-$0.35

15.26%

-$0.07

458.10%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.891

-$1.906

-0.80%

$0.02

-$1.81

4.56%

-$1.39

36.46%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.726

$0.782

-7.16%

-$0.06

$0.54

33.73%

$1.61

-54.93%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/3/24

7/2/24

% Change

Change

6/4/24

% Change

7/5/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.855

$0.846

1.03%

$0.01

$0.69

24.36%

$0.62

37.77%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.849

$0.850

-0.15%

$0.00

$0.69

22.84%

$0.62

36.31%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.159

$0.162

-2.34%

$0.00

$0.20

-20.43%

$0.24

-34.86%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.603

$1.615

-0.77%

-$0.01

$1.40

14.08%

$1.32

21.65%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.939

$0.946

-0.66%

-$0.01

$0.76

24.14%

$0.69

35.48%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.480

$6.535

-0.84%

-$0.06

$5.96

8.73%

$4.69

38.13%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.900

$5.910

-0.17%

-$0.01

$5.43

8.66%

$4.28

37.89%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/3/24

7/2/24

% Change

Change

6/4/24

% Change

7/5/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$83.88

$82.81

1.28%

$1.07

$73.06

14.81%

$69.04

21.49%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$87.76

$86.65

1.27%

$1.11

$77.52

13.21%

$73.68

19.11%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$15.28

-$14.05

8.03%

-$1.23

-$12.00

27.31%

-$13.14

16.30%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$85.19

$84.66

0.62%

$0.53

$76.22

11.77%

$70.62

20.62%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$83.09

$82.61

0.57%

$0.48

$74.22

11.95%

$67.42

23.23%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$83.53

$83.04

0.59%

$0.49

$74.15

12.65%

$68.38

22.16%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$85.76

$84.65

1.30%

$1.11

$75.52

13.56%

$71.68

19.64%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/3/24

7/2/24

% Change

Change

6/4/24

% Change

7/5/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.63

$2.63

0.00%

$0.00

$2.31

13.95%

$2.40

9.40%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.52

$2.57

-1.98%

-$0.05

$2.33

8.52%

$2.19

15.26%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.42

$2.47

-2.06%

-$0.05

$2.22

8.90%

$2.09

15.99%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.57

$2.62

-1.98%

-$0.05

$2.26

13.82%

$2.20

16.55%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.88

$1.86

0.81%

$0.01

$1.79

4.46%

$1.56

19.96%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$751.00

$768.00

-2.21%

-$17.00

$665.00

12.93%

$631.91

18.85%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$102.60

$103.90

-1.25%

-$1.30

$90.75

13.06%

$90.84

12.95%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/3/24

7/2/24

% Change

Change

6/4/24

% Change

7/5/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

57.36%

55.89%

2.63%

1.47%

65.69%

-12.68%

44.37%

29.28%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

68.87%

62.38%

10.40%

6.49%

73.67%

-6.52%

43.13%

59.68%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

191.43%

141.67%

35.12%

49.76%

105.77%

80.99%

46.47%

311.94%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

70.95%

62.16%

14.14%

8.79%

79.05%

-10.25%

44.84%

58.23%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

96.69%

87.15%

10.95%

9.54%

78.91%

22.53%

45.96%

110.38%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

170.62%

146.12%

16.77%

24.50%

118.03%

44.56%

86.62%

96.98%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

323.14%

338.95%

-4.66%

-15.81%

352.30%

-8.28%

179.50%

80.02%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/3/24

7/2/24

% Change

Change

6/4/24

% Change

7/5/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 32.78

EUR 33.55

-2.28%

-EUR 0.76

EUR 34.32

-4.46%

EUR 51.19

-35.95%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 76.32

GBP 78.46

-2.73%

-GBP 2.14

GBP 82.80

-7.82%

GBP 123.48

-38.19%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 75.27

EUR 78.14

-3.67%

-EUR 2.87

EUR 80.99

-7.07%

EUR 123.03

-38.82%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 68.34

GBP 70.32

-2.82%

-GBP 1.98

GBP 74.78

-8.62%

GBP 113.91

-40.00%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 46.64

EUR 48.11

-3.06%

-EUR 1.47

EUR 45.81

1.80%

EUR 116.28

-59.89%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 102.53

EUR 101.23

1.28%

EUR 1.30

EUR 108.80

-5.77%

EUR 139.47

-26.49%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.10

$12.44

-2.78%

-$0.35

$12.05

0.36%

$16.54

-26.88%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/3/24

7/2/24

% Change

Change

6/4/24

% Change

7/5/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$32.78

$33.55

-2.28%

-$0.76

$34.32

-4.46%

$51.19

-35.95%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$76.32

$78.46

-2.73%

-$2.14

$82.80

-7.82%

$123.48

-38.19%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$75.27

$78.14

-3.67%

-$2.87

$80.99

-7.07%

$123.03

-38.82%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$68.34

$70.32

-2.82%

-$1.98

$74.78

-8.62%

$113.91

-40.00%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$46.64

$48.11

-3.06%

-$1.47

$45.81

1.80%

$116.28

-59.89%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$102.53

$101.23

1.28%

$1.30

$108.80

-5.77%

$139.47

-26.49%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.10

$12.44

-2.78%

-$0.35

$12.05

0.36%

$16.54

-26.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/29/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

38

14

1

126

61

55

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

54

15

13

192

58

91

43.00%

92.00%

 

 

E N Central

51

7

11

233

41

83

21.00%

55.00%

 

 

W N Central

73

16

8

295

38

-15

15.00%

-5.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

112

26

28

775

108

80

16.00%

12.00%

 

 

E S Central

109

27

29

620

144

138

30.00%

29.00%

 

 

W S Central

136

23

-6

1,032

190

56

23.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

87

21

36

370

6

105

2.00%

39.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

20

43

115

-37

65

-24.00%

130.00%

 

 

United States

79

18

19

431

65

75

18.00%

21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/29/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

4

-2

2

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-1

-2

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

3

0

-1

5,395

-1,135

-470

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

-3

1

5,662

-1,121

-875

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

2

-9

-5

4,915

-316

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

6

-5

-3

3,124

-117

-513

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

-2

-1

3,959

-588

-260

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

To opt out of this email please follow this link.

Campbell Faulkner | OTC Global Holdings

Quality Data – Reliable Service – Affordable Price

5151 San Felipe Suite 2200
Houston, TX 77056
faulkner.c@otcgh.com
eoxlive.com/market-data

 

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.