Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-06-2023

Jul 6, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:39 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.654

$2.657

-0.11%

-$0.003

21,037

 

 

WTI

$71.61

$71.79

-0.25%

-$0.18

113,721

 

 

Brent

$76.36

$76.65

-0.38%

-$0.29

8,752

 

 

ULSD

$2.482

$2.493

-0.44%

-$0.011

8,471

 

 

RBOB

$2.506

$2.518

-0.49%

-$0.012

7,998

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.70

$4.77

-1.47%

-$0.07

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.11

$31.37

-0.81%

-$0.25

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$39.73

$38.95

2.01%

$0.78

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/30/23

674

-8

-76

07/01/22

 

 

Canada

06/30/23

167

-2

1

07/01/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/27/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

116,079

115,556

115,464

92

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

96,385

95,734

95,741

-7

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

450,455

422,678

438,670

-15,992

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

273,641

208,702

202,420

6,282

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

153,190

140,522

144,593

-4,071

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,758

40,404

40,304

100

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

172,326

171,408

172,022

-614

 

 

RBOB

332,485

309,810

318,584

-8,774

 

 

HSC Basis

579,646

574,337

568,650

5,687

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/29/18

 

 

 

6/23/23

6/16/23

Net Change

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

623

599

24

4.01%

461

35.14%

520

19.85%

 

 

Midwest

685

658

27

4.10%

535

28.04%

584

17.25%

 

 

Mountain

165

157

8

5.10%

134

23.13%

151

9.56%

 

 

Pacific

204

191

13

6.81%

235

-13.19%

259

-21.24%

 

 

South

1,128

1,125

3

0.27%

886

27.31%

972

16.03%

 

 

    Salt

330

330

0

0.00%

242

36.36%

282

17.02%

 

 

    Non_Salt

798

794

4

0.50%

644

23.91%

690

15.62%

 

 

Total

2,805

2,729

76

2.78%

2,251

24.61%

2,486

12.85%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/23

7/3/23

% Change

Change

6/5/23

% Change

7/5/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$45.41

$44.63

1.74%

$0.78

$48.29

-5.98%

$68.78

-33.98%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$119.52

$122.43

-2.38%

-$2.91

$92.66

28.99%

$101.91

17.28%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$98.75

$103.83

-4.89%

-$5.08

$106.80

-7.54%

$106.04

-6.87%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$51.77

$50.77

1.96%

$0.99

$55.49

-6.71%

$70.36

-26.43%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$44.54

$44.04

1.14%

$0.50

$53.42

-16.61%

$58.82

-24.27%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$184.35

$190.80

-3.38%

-$6.45

$212.67

-13.32%

$134.74

36.82%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$43.68

$43.10

1.35%

$0.58

$49.65

-12.03%

$59.09

-26.07%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/23

7/3/23

% Change

Change

6/5/23

% Change

7/5/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-23

$2.657

$2.709

-1.92%

-$0.05

$2.37

12.30%

$4.30

-38.28%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-23

-$0.148

-$0.166

-10.50%

$0.02

-$0.15

-2.37%

-$0.14

2.63%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-23

-$0.231

-$0.256

10.96%

$0.03

-$0.21

12.41%

-$0.21

11.55%

 

 

Waha

Aug-23

-$0.381

-$0.429

-11.24%

$0.05

-$0.85

-55.03%

-$1.96

-80.57%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-23

-$0.334

-$0.366

8.77%

$0.03

$0.27

-222.75%

-$0.58

-42.34%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-23

-$0.967

-$0.956

1.10%

-$0.01

-$1.02

-5.04%

-$1.08

-10.35%

 

 

Socal

Aug-23

$1.529

$1.624

-5.86%

-$0.10

$2.37

-35.53%

$0.67

126.79%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/23

7/3/23

% Change

Change

6/5/23

% Change

7/5/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.543

$0.525

3.45%

$0.02

$0.61

-10.50%

$0.95

-42.91%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.525

$0.524

0.35%

$0.00

$0.60

-11.73%

$1.02

-48.23%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.244

$0.237

2.94%

$0.01

$0.20

24.89%

$0.34

-28.86%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.262

$1.263

-0.12%

$0.00

$1.39

-9.06%

$1.88

-32.99%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.612

$0.603

1.51%

$0.01

$0.68

-10.14%

$1.19

-48.58%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.528

$0.525

0.52%

$0.00

$0.60

-12.07%

$1.01

-47.84%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.397

$1.395

0.10%

$0.00

$1.46

-4.38%

$1.77

-21.16%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/23

7/3/23

% Change

Change

6/5/23

% Change

7/5/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$71.79

$69.79

2.79%

$2.00

$72.26

-0.65%

$79.58

-9.79%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$76.79

$74.76

2.64%

$2.03

$76.71

0.11%

$84.76

-9.40%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$11.30

-$10.81

4.32%

-$0.49

-$13.08

-13.62%

-$16.64

-32.09%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$74.67

$72.86

2.43%

$1.81

$74.01

0.89%

$80.35

-7.07%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$72.31

$71.79

0.72%

$0.52

$70.41

2.70%

$74.11

-2.43%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$72.84

$72.27

0.78%

$0.57

$71.12

2.42%

$74.60

-2.36%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$74.79

$72.76

2.72%

$2.03

$75.61

-1.08%

$80.42

-7.00%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/23

7/3/23

% Change

Change

6/5/23

% Change

7/5/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.49

$2.38

4.92%

$0.12

$2.37

5.32%

$2.92

-14.50%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.51

$2.46

2.16%

$0.05

$2.45

2.49%

$2.40

4.63%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.41

$2.36

2.25%

$0.05

$2.35

2.60%

$2.30

4.83%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.31

$2.30

0.57%

$0.01

$2.26

2.39%

$2.89

-20.07%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.21

$2.24

-1.47%

-$0.03

$2.35

-6.16%

$2.06

6.98%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$675.20

$657.01

2.77%

$18.19

$656.32

2.88%

$901.56

-25.11%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$94.96

$91.85

3.38%

$3.11

$92.56

2.59%

$115.35

-17.68%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/23

7/3/23

% Change

Change

6/5/23

% Change

7/5/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

63.52%

62.02%

2.42%

1.50%

67.17%

-5.43%

48.26%

31.62%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

70.35%

71.07%

-1.01%

-0.72%

73.67%

-4.51%

60.60%

16.09%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

91.84%

98.48%

-6.74%

-6.64%

93.75%

-2.04%

140.06%

-34.43%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

70.73%

69.25%

2.14%

1.48%

66.93%

5.68%

50.48%

40.11%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

80.89%

78.20%

3.44%

2.69%

75.59%

7.01%

61.92%

30.64%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

283.13%

260.64%

8.63%

22.49%

161.17%

75.67%

73.34%

286.05%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

272.01%

273.37%

-0.50%

-1.36%

233.65%

16.42%

99.10%

174.48%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/23

7/3/23

% Change

Change

6/5/23

% Change

7/5/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 33.94

EUR 34.22

-0.81%

-EUR 0.28

EUR 30.03

13.02%

EUR 101.95

-66.70%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 83.50

GBP 83.96

-0.54%

-GBP 0.46

GBP 74.38

12.26%

GBP 239.35

-65.11%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 98.01

EUR 101.86

-3.78%

-EUR 3.85

EUR 88.89

10.25%

EUR 280.94

-65.11%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 87.41

GBP 91.62

-4.60%

-GBP 4.22

GBP 81.30

7.51%

GBP 204.40

-57.24%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 94.53

EUR 99.21

-4.71%

-EUR 4.68

EUR 86.75

8.98%

EUR 245.84

-61.55%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 113.67

EUR 118.67

-4.21%

-EUR 5.00

EUR 106.51

6.72%

EUR 257.64

-55.88%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$11.75

$11.65

0.91%

$0.11

$10.25

14.61%

$26.91

-56.33%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/01/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

43

16

3

78

5

-32

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

47

6

-2

108

-39

-63

-27.00%

-37.00%

 

 

E N Central

45

0

1

160

-45

-112

-22.00%

-41.00%

 

 

W N Central

66

7

14

319

45

-32

16.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

89

1

1

709

17

-133

2.00%

-16.00%

 

 

E S Central

91

7

2

497

-4

-143

-1.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W S Central

144

30

26

994

120

-159

14.00%

-14.00%

 

 

Mountain

58

-10

-12

276

-107

-143

-28.00%

-34.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-8

-33

59

-103

-110

-64.00%

-65.00%

 

 

United States

67

4

-2

367

-17

-108

-4.00%

-23.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/01/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-4

-1

5,766

-845

-213

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

1

0

5,098

-813

-129

-14.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

3

1

-2

5,858

-639

-68

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-4

-3

6,537

-213

161

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,436

-417

22

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,102

-502

-33

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,100

-187

155

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

5

-5

1

5,523

314

743

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-7

1

3,650

422

616

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

2

-1

0

4,205

-319

134

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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