Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-07-2023

Jul 7, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:31 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.622

$2.609

0.50%

$0.013

13,806

 

 

WTI

$71.45

$71.80

-0.49%

-$0.35

104,394

 

 

Brent

$76.26

$76.52

-0.34%

-$0.26

6,626

 

 

ULSD

$2.495

$2.479

0.64%

$0.016

6,676

 

 

RBOB

$2.544

$2.544

0.02%

$0.000

9,616

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.78

$4.73

1.06%

$0.05

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.22

$31.67

1.75%

$0.55

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$41.89

$39.82

5.19%

$2.07

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/30/23

674

-8

-76

07/01/22

 

 

Canada

06/30/23

167

-2

1

07/01/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/27/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

116,079

115,556

115,464

92

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

96,385

95,734

95,741

-7

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

450,455

422,678

438,670

-15,992

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

273,641

208,702

202,420

6,282

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

153,190

140,522

144,593

-4,071

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,758

40,404

40,304

100

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

172,326

171,408

172,022

-614

 

 

RBOB

332,485

309,810

318,584

-8,774

 

 

HSC Basis

579,646

574,337

568,650

5,687

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/29/18

 

 

 

6/23/23

6/16/23

Net Change

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

623

599

24

4.01%

461

35.14%

520

19.85%

 

 

Midwest

685

658

27

4.10%

535

28.04%

584

17.25%

 

 

Mountain

165

157

8

5.10%

134

23.13%

151

9.56%

 

 

Pacific

204

191

13

6.81%

235

-13.19%

259

-21.24%

 

 

South

1,128

1,125

3

0.27%

886

27.31%

972

16.03%

 

 

    Salt

330

330

0

0.00%

242

36.36%

282

17.02%

 

 

    Non_Salt

798

794

4

0.50%

644

23.91%

690

15.62%

 

 

Total

2,805

2,729

76

2.78%

2,251

24.61%

2,486

12.85%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/6/23

7/5/23

% Change

Change

6/6/23

% Change

7/7/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$47.50

$45.41

4.61%

$2.09

$49.09

-3.24%

$77.37

-38.60%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$116.96

$119.52

-2.14%

-$2.56

$91.70

27.55%

$110.80

5.56%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$101.59

$98.75

2.87%

$2.83

$108.86

-6.68%

$113.46

-10.47%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$53.96

$51.77

4.23%

$2.19

$56.52

-4.54%

$79.63

-32.23%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$47.96

$44.54

7.68%

$3.42

$52.25

-8.20%

$63.72

-24.72%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$205.57

$184.35

11.51%

$21.22

$203.31

1.11%

$158.75

29.49%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$47.07

$43.68

7.76%

$3.39

$48.95

-3.84%

$64.75

-27.30%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/6/23

7/5/23

% Change

Change

6/6/23

% Change

7/7/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-23

$2.609

$2.657

-1.81%

-$0.05

$2.38

9.58%

$4.59

-43.22%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-23

-$0.171

-$0.148

15.37%

-$0.02

-$0.12

40.82%

-$0.12

41.87%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-23

-$0.272

-$0.231

-15.17%

-$0.04

-$0.19

46.58%

-$0.21

30.49%

 

 

Waha

Aug-23

-$0.451

-$0.381

-18.43%

-$0.07

-$0.70

-35.25%

-$1.62

-72.20%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-23

-$0.302

-$0.334

9.49%

$0.03

$0.26

-216.90%

-$0.63

-52.24%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-23

-$0.965

-$0.967

-0.16%

$0.00

-$0.90

7.37%

-$1.10

-12.48%

 

 

Socal

Aug-23

$1.543

$1.529

0.96%

$0.01

$2.33

-33.78%

$0.69

124.25%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/6/23

7/5/23

% Change

Change

6/6/23

% Change

7/7/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.553

$0.543

1.83%

$0.01

$0.61

-8.81%

$0.95

-41.79%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.525

$0.525

-0.09%

$0.00

$0.59

-10.59%

$0.95

-44.50%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.245

$0.244

0.55%

$0.00

$0.19

27.82%

$0.33

-25.30%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.296

$1.262

2.69%

$0.03

$1.37

-5.57%

$1.71

-24.12%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.616

$0.612

0.68%

$0.00

$0.68

-8.91%

$1.11

-44.31%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.535

$0.528

1.41%

$0.01

$0.61

-12.12%

$0.94

-42.99%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.387

$1.397

-0.70%

-$0.01

$1.45

-4.28%

$1.72

-19.15%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/6/23

7/5/23

% Change

Change

6/6/23

% Change

7/7/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$71.80

$71.79

0.01%

$0.01

$71.85

-0.07%

$81.79

-12.21%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$76.70

$76.79

-0.13%

-$0.10

$76.29

0.53%

$86.94

-11.78%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$10.57

-$11.30

-6.93%

$0.73

-$12.40

-14.79%

-$15.85

-33.32%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$74.12

$74.67

-0.74%

-$0.55

$74.41

-0.39%

$82.99

-10.69%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$72.02

$72.31

-0.40%

-$0.29

$70.86

1.64%

$71.43

0.82%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$72.48

$72.84

-0.49%

-$0.36

$70.94

2.17%

$71.63

1.19%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$74.70

$74.79

-0.13%

-$0.10

$75.04

-0.46%

$74.72

-0.03%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/6/23

7/5/23

% Change

Change

6/6/23

% Change

7/7/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.48

$2.49

-0.56%

-$0.01

$2.36

4.95%

$3.04

-18.34%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.53

$2.51

0.96%

$0.02

$2.47

2.55%

$2.43

4.41%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.43

$2.41

1.00%

$0.02

$2.37

2.66%

$2.33

4.60%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.31

$2.31

-0.17%

$0.00

$2.23

3.59%

$2.74

-15.81%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.22

$2.21

0.63%

$0.01

$2.35

-5.37%

$2.17

2.59%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$662.66

$675.20

-1.86%

-$12.55

$651.33

1.74%

$865.64

-23.45%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$92.50

$94.96

-2.59%

-$2.46

$88.78

4.20%

$98.13

-5.74%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/6/23

7/5/23

% Change

Change

6/6/23

% Change

7/7/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

64.55%

63.52%

1.62%

1.03%

69.33%

-6.89%

43.00%

50.12%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

71.58%

70.35%

1.75%

1.23%

78.18%

-8.44%

58.48%

22.40%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

89.65%

91.84%

-2.38%

-2.19%

103.11%

-13.05%

141.38%

-36.59%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

71.89%

70.73%

1.64%

1.16%

70.09%

2.57%

45.49%

58.03%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

76.64%

80.89%

-5.25%

-4.25%

78.39%

-2.23%

60.45%

26.78%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

245.55%

283.13%

-13.27%

-37.58%

135.65%

81.02%

74.35%

230.26%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

279.86%

272.01%

2.89%

7.85%

198.20%

41.20%

111.93%

150.03%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/6/23

7/5/23

% Change

Change

6/6/23

% Change

7/7/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 32.54

EUR 33.94

-4.13%

-EUR 1.40

EUR 26.50

22.81%

EUR 129.84

-74.94%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 80.14

GBP 83.50

-4.03%

-GBP 3.36

GBP 65.18

22.94%

GBP 276.09

-70.98%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 88.46

EUR 98.01

-9.74%

-EUR 9.55

EUR 91.99

-3.84%

EUR 316.80

-72.08%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 87.16

GBP 87.41

-0.28%

-GBP 0.25

GBP 80.06

8.87%

GBP 252.73

-65.51%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 94.30

EUR 94.53

-0.25%

-EUR 0.23

EUR 76.51

23.26%

EUR 278.37

-66.12%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 112.19

EUR 113.67

-1.30%

-EUR 1.48

EUR 105.95

5.89%

EUR 262.05

-57.19%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$11.73

$11.75

-0.14%

-$0.02

$8.88

32.11%

$33.40

-64.86%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/01/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

43

16

3

78

5

-32

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

47

6

-2

108

-39

-63

-27.00%

-37.00%

 

 

E N Central

45

0

1

160

-45

-112

-22.00%

-41.00%

 

 

W N Central

66

7

14

319

45

-32

16.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

89

1

1

709

17

-133

2.00%

-16.00%

 

 

E S Central

91

7

2

497

-4

-143

-1.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W S Central

144

30

26

994

120

-159

14.00%

-14.00%

 

 

Mountain

58

-10

-12

276

-107

-143

-28.00%

-34.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-8

-33

59

-103

-110

-64.00%

-65.00%

 

 

United States

67

4

-2

367

-17

-108

-4.00%

-23.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/01/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-4

-1

5,766

-845

-213

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

1

0

5,098

-813

-129

-14.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

3

1

-2

5,858

-639

-68

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-4

-3

6,537

-213

161

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,436

-417

22

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,102

-502

-33

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,100

-187

155

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

5

-5

1

5,523

314

743

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-7

1

3,650

422

616

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

2

-1

0

4,205

-319

134

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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