Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-08-2024

Jul 8, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:36 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.370

$2.319

2.20%

$0.051

45,553

 

 

WTI

$82.50

$83.16

-0.79%

-$0.66

105,177

 

 

Brent

$86.16

$86.54

-0.44%

-$0.38

14,356

 

 

ULSD

$2.582

$2.602

-0.80%

-$0.021

11,094

 

 

RBOB

$2.541

$2.559

-0.71%

-$0.018

16,171

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.32

$4.28

0.93%

$0.04

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.82

$25.02

-0.80%

-$0.20

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$58.64

$55.62

5.43%

$3.02

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/05/24

585

4

-95

07/08/23

 

 

Canada

07/05/24

175

-1

0

07/08/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/28/19

 

 

 

6/28/24

6/21/24

Net Change

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

660

646

14

2.17%

643

2.64%

566

16.65%

 

 

Midwest

779

753

26

3.45%

705

10.50%

647

20.44%

 

 

Mountain

239

237

2

0.84%

173

38.15%

160

49.00%

 

 

Pacific

282

283

-1

-0.35%

216

30.56%

253

11.29%

 

 

South

1,174

1,179

-5

-0.42%

1,141

2.89%

1,031

13.87%

 

 

    Salt

326

334

-8

-2.40%

325

0.31%

293

11.11%

 

 

    Non_Salt

848

845

3

0.36%

816

3.92%

738

14.97%

 

 

Total

3,134

3,097

37

1.19%

2,877

8.93%

2,657

17.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/24

7/3/24

% Change

Change

6/5/24

% Change

7/6/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$63.70

$60.58

5.14%

$3.12

$65.59

-2.89%

$53.76

18.48%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$125.73

$132.44

-5.07%

-$6.72

$190.89

-34.14%

$96.99

29.63%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$72.79

$81.63

-10.83%

-$8.84

$77.88

-6.53%

$116.04

-37.27%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$61.53

$57.92

6.23%

$3.61

$65.71

-6.36%

$62.02

-0.80%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$53.90

$55.30

-2.52%

-$1.40

$54.87

-1.76%

$56.14

-3.98%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$136.82

$141.64

-3.41%

-$4.83

$139.47

-1.90%

$211.39

-35.28%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$56.80

$54.72

3.80%

$2.08

$53.87

5.43%

$55.23

2.84%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/24

7/3/24

% Change

Change

6/5/24

% Change

7/6/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.319

$2.418

-4.09%

-$0.10

$2.83

-18.00%

$3.39

-31.65%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.313

-$0.323

-3.19%

$0.01

-$0.27

16.90%

-$0.20

59.79%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.461

-$0.460

-0.28%

$0.00

-$0.51

-9.99%

-$0.20

135.84%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.863

-$1.895

-1.69%

$0.03

-$1.24

50.88%

-$0.33

468.46%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.400

-$0.400

-0.05%

$0.00

-$0.35

15.05%

-$0.07

449.93%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.880

-$1.891

-0.56%

$0.01

-$1.86

0.95%

-$1.40

33.97%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.535

$0.726

-26.35%

-$0.19

$0.50

6.96%

$1.64

-67.46%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/24

7/3/24

% Change

Change

6/5/24

% Change

7/6/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.855

$0.855

0.00%

$0.00

$0.69

23.47%

$0.62

37.78%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.859

$0.849

1.21%

$0.01

$0.70

23.60%

$0.63

36.91%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.159

$0.159

0.17%

$0.00

$0.20

-20.60%

$0.25

-36.08%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.609

$1.603

0.38%

$0.01

$1.43

12.79%

$1.31

23.10%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.949

$0.939

1.02%

$0.01

$0.76

24.15%

$0.70

34.81%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.450

$6.480

-0.47%

-$0.03

$5.94

8.58%

$4.59

40.44%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.900

$5.900

0.00%

$0.00

$5.38

9.61%

$4.34

35.81%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/24

7/3/24

% Change

Change

6/5/24

% Change

7/6/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$83.16

$83.88

-0.87%

-$0.72

$73.82

12.65%

$68.66

21.12%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$86.96

$87.76

-0.92%

-$0.80

$78.41

10.91%

$73.20

18.80%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$16.15

-$15.28

5.42%

-$0.88

-$12.75

26.69%

-$13.29

21.56%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$84.57

$85.19

-0.73%

-$0.62

$75.21

12.45%

$70.79

19.47%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$82.60

$83.09

-0.59%

-$0.49

$73.11

12.99%

$67.52

22.33%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$82.67

$83.53

-1.05%

-$0.87

$73.12

13.06%

$68.47

20.74%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$84.96

$85.76

-0.94%

-$0.80

$76.41

11.19%

$71.20

19.33%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/24

7/3/24

% Change

Change

6/5/24

% Change

7/6/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.61

$2.63

-0.65%

-$0.02

$2.32

12.44%

$2.39

9.47%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.57

$2.52

1.90%

$0.05

$2.34

9.87%

$2.21

16.55%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.47

$2.42

1.98%

$0.05

$2.24

10.31%

$2.11

17.33%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.58

$2.57

0.27%

$0.01

$2.27

13.77%

$2.18

18.16%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.87

$1.88

-0.27%

$0.00

$1.78

5.06%

$1.61

16.37%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$765.62

$751.00

1.95%

$14.62

$666.81

14.82%

$621.18

23.25%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$102.43

$102.60

-0.17%

-$0.17

$91.61

11.82%

$89.42

14.55%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/24

7/3/24

% Change

Change

6/5/24

% Change

7/6/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

56.58%

57.36%

-1.36%

-0.78%

55.59%

1.78%

44.46%

27.26%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

63.84%

68.87%

-7.30%

-5.03%

65.10%

-1.94%

43.91%

45.39%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

189.17%

191.43%

-1.18%

-2.26%

93.27%

102.82%

45.88%

312.31%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

66.13%

70.95%

-6.79%

-4.82%

71.12%

-7.02%

44.82%

47.55%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

96.69%

96.69%

0.00%

0.00%

83.54%

15.74%

46.33%

108.70%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

173.40%

170.62%

1.63%

2.78%

119.30%

45.35%

86.77%

99.84%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

361.59%

323.14%

11.90%

38.45%

348.99%

3.61%

179.74%

101.17%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/24

7/3/24

% Change

Change

6/5/24

% Change

7/6/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 33.05

EUR 32.78

0.81%

EUR 0.27

EUR 33.62

-1.69%

EUR 52.03

-36.48%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 77.31

GBP 76.32

1.29%

GBP 0.99

GBP 80.53

-4.00%

GBP 125.50

-38.40%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 74.79

EUR 75.27

-0.63%

-EUR 0.48

EUR 78.82

-5.11%

EUR 128.77

-41.92%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 69.65

GBP 68.34

1.92%

GBP 1.31

GBP 71.16

-2.12%

GBP 109.20

-36.22%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 46.47

EUR 46.64

-0.37%

-EUR 0.17

EUR 40.04

16.04%

EUR 121.89

-61.88%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 99.09

EUR 102.53

-3.35%

-EUR 3.43

EUR 101.90

-2.76%

EUR 145.28

-31.79%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.54

$12.10

3.64%

$0.44

$11.90

5.35%

$16.25

-22.83%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/5/24

7/3/24

% Change

Change

6/5/24

% Change

7/6/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$33.05

$32.78

0.81%

$0.27

$33.62

-1.69%

$52.03

-36.48%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$77.31

$76.32

1.29%

$0.99

$80.53

-4.00%

$125.50

-38.40%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$74.79

$75.27

-0.63%

-$0.48

$78.82

-5.11%

$128.77

-41.92%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$69.65

$68.34

1.92%

$1.31

$71.16

-2.12%

$109.20

-36.22%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$46.47

$46.64

-0.37%

-$0.17

$40.04

16.04%

$121.89

-61.88%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$99.09

$102.53

-3.35%

-$3.43

$101.90

-2.76%

$145.28

-31.79%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.54

$12.10

3.64%

$0.44

$11.90

5.35%

$16.25

-22.83%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

46

14

-9

173

76

41

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

64

16

-10

255

73

77

40.00%

42.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

-8

-29

275

34

58

14.00%

27.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-17

-19

341

21

-25

7.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

109

17

2

883

124

78

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

106

18

2

726

162

141

29.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

138

20

8

1,170

211

68

22.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

79

7

6

449

14

108

3.00%

31.00%

 

 

Pacific

70

34

16

185

-3

85

-2.00%

85.00%

 

 

United States

79

12

-3

510

77

72

18.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

1

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

2

1

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

7

6

7

5,397

-1,134

-468

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

3

4

5,665

-1,119

-872

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-5

-2

4,915

-317

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-7

1

3,125

-118

-512

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

0

2

3,960

-587

-259

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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