Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-09-2024

Jul 9, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:45 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.436

$2.366

2.96%

$0.070

56,353

 

 

WTI

$81.86

$82.33

-0.57%

-$0.47

86,064

 

 

Brent

$85.48

$85.75

-0.31%

-$0.27

12,361

 

 

ULSD

$2.561

$2.579

-0.72%

-$0.019

10,081

 

 

RBOB

$2.540

$2.538

0.07%

$0.002

11,007

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.20

$4.23

-0.71%

-$0.03

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.93

$24.95

-0.08%

-$0.02

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$65.12

$58.64

11.06%

$6.49

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/05/24

585

4

-95

07/08/23

 

 

Canada

07/05/24

175

-1

0

07/08/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/28/19

 

 

 

6/28/24

6/21/24

Net Change

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

660

646

14

2.17%

643

2.64%

566

16.65%

 

 

Midwest

779

753

26

3.45%

705

10.50%

647

20.44%

 

 

Mountain

239

237

2

0.84%

173

38.15%

160

49.00%

 

 

Pacific

282

283

-1

-0.35%

216

30.56%

253

11.29%

 

 

South

1,174

1,179

-5

-0.42%

1,141

2.89%

1,031

13.87%

 

 

    Salt

326

334

-8

-2.40%

325

0.31%

293

11.11%

 

 

    Non_Salt

848

845

3

0.36%

816

3.92%

738

14.97%

 

 

Total

3,134

3,097

37

1.19%

2,877

8.93%

2,657

17.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/8/24

7/5/24

% Change

Change

6/6/24

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$70.28

$63.70

10.33%

$6.58

$65.59

7.15%

$55.12

27.49%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$129.39

$125.73

2.91%

$3.66

$188.13

-31.23%

$95.32

35.74%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$65.26

$72.79

-10.35%

-$7.54

$76.67

-14.89%

$116.56

-44.01%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$65.45

$61.53

6.38%

$3.92

$65.29

0.25%

$62.86

4.13%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$57.54

$53.90

6.75%

$3.64

$59.03

-2.52%

$56.63

1.61%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$122.84

$136.82

-10.22%

-$13.98

$135.14

-9.10%

$200.96

-38.88%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$59.39

$56.80

4.58%

$2.60

$52.50

13.13%

$55.91

6.23%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/8/24

7/5/24

% Change

Change

6/6/24

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.374

$2.319

2.37%

$0.06

$2.89

-17.91%

$3.38

-29.83%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.352

-$0.313

12.70%

-$0.04

-$0.28

27.59%

-$0.17

106.57%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.460

-$0.461

0.30%

$0.00

-$0.54

-14.61%

-$0.17

165.53%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.670

-$1.863

-10.38%

$0.19

-$1.26

32.95%

-$0.25

569.03%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.390

-$0.400

2.48%

$0.01

-$0.40

-1.96%

-$0.09

348.68%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.920

-$1.880

2.13%

-$0.04

-$2.01

-4.37%

-$1.40

37.12%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.310

$0.535

-42.00%

-$0.22

$0.39

-19.50%

$1.55

-80.03%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/8/24

7/5/24

% Change

Change

6/6/24

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.841

$0.855

-1.61%

-$0.01

$0.71

18.49%

$0.66

27.74%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.838

$0.859

-2.50%

-$0.02

$0.71

17.32%

$0.65

28.54%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.155

$0.159

-2.50%

$0.00

$0.20

-24.28%

$0.25

-37.34%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.583

$1.609

-1.62%

-$0.03

$1.44

9.89%

$1.34

17.78%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.938

$0.949

-1.12%

-$0.01

$0.78

19.85%

$0.71

32.41%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.435

$6.450

-0.23%

-$0.01

$6.02

6.89%

$4.89

31.63%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.890

$5.900

-0.17%

-$0.01

$5.37

9.60%

$4.42

33.34%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/8/24

7/5/24

% Change

Change

6/6/24

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$82.33

$83.16

-1.01%

-$0.83

$75.24

9.42%

$69.74

18.05%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$86.14

$86.96

-0.95%

-$0.82

$79.87

7.85%

$74.47

15.67%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$14.87

-$16.15

-8.63%

$1.28

-$13.05

13.95%

-$12.57

18.26%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$83.69

$84.57

-1.05%

-$0.88

$75.89

10.27%

$72.61

15.26%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$81.45

$82.60

-1.41%

-$1.14

$73.89

10.23%

$67.61

20.48%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$82.03

$82.67

-0.78%

-$0.64

$73.86

11.06%

$68.27

20.16%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$84.14

$84.96

-0.98%

-$0.82

$77.87

8.05%

$72.47

16.10%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/8/24

7/5/24

% Change

Change

6/6/24

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.57

$2.61

-1.53%

-$0.04

$2.38

8.34%

$2.39

7.84%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.53

$2.57

-1.44%

-$0.04

$2.38

6.52%

$2.25

12.57%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.43

$2.47

-1.50%

-$0.04

$2.28

6.80%

$2.15

13.16%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.54

$2.58

-1.51%

-$0.04

$2.33

9.07%

$2.25

12.70%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.85

$1.87

-0.96%

-$0.02

$1.81

2.32%

$1.59

16.55%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$748.89

$765.62

-2.19%

-$16.74

$677.50

10.54%

$659.36

13.58%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$100.84

$102.43

-1.55%

-$1.59

$92.11

9.47%

$91.96

9.66%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/8/24

7/5/24

% Change

Change

6/6/24

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

52.35%

56.58%

-7.48%

-4.23%

61.79%

-15.28%

43.57%

20.15%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

59.33%

63.84%

-7.06%

-4.51%

68.50%

-13.39%

42.48%

39.67%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

265.55%

189.17%

40.38%

76.38%

95.00%

179.53%

47.04%

464.52%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

58.95%

66.13%

-10.86%

-7.18%

69.22%

-14.84%

45.38%

29.90%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

100.13%

96.69%

3.56%

3.44%

82.40%

21.52%

47.50%

110.80%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

275.78%

173.40%

59.04%

102.38%

113.04%

143.97%

86.77%

217.83%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

339.83%

361.59%

-6.02%

-21.76%

360.53%

-5.74%

179.91%

88.89%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/8/24

7/5/24

% Change

Change

6/6/24

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 32.15

EUR 33.05

-2.74%

-EUR 0.91

EUR 33.32

-3.53%

EUR 53.48

-39.89%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 74.82

GBP 77.31

-3.21%

-GBP 2.48

GBP 80.13

-6.63%

GBP 129.42

-42.19%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 72.25

EUR 74.79

-3.39%

-EUR 2.54

EUR 78.36

-7.80%

EUR 128.67

-43.85%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 67.79

GBP 69.65

-2.67%

-GBP 1.86

GBP 71.38

-5.02%

GBP 112.33

-39.65%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 42.78

EUR 46.47

-7.94%

-EUR 3.69

EUR 40.93

4.51%

EUR 121.81

-64.88%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 98.60

EUR 99.09

-0.49%

-EUR 0.49

EUR 103.17

-4.43%

EUR 148.59

-33.64%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.35

$12.54

-1.52%

-$0.19

$12.05

2.46%

$16.60

-25.61%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/8/24

7/5/24

% Change

Change

6/6/24

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$32.15

$33.05

-2.74%

-$0.91

$33.32

-3.53%

$53.48

-39.89%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$74.82

$77.31

-3.21%

-$2.48

$80.13

-6.63%

$129.42

-42.19%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$72.25

$74.79

-3.39%

-$2.54

$78.36

-7.80%

$128.67

-43.85%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$67.79

$69.65

-2.67%

-$1.86

$71.38

-5.02%

$112.33

-39.65%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$42.78

$46.47

-7.94%

-$3.69

$40.93

4.51%

$121.81

-64.88%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$98.60

$99.09

-0.49%

-$0.49

$103.17

-4.43%

$148.59

-33.64%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.35

$12.54

-1.52%

-$0.19

$12.05

2.46%

$16.60

-25.61%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

46

14

-9

173

76

41

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

64

16

-10

255

73

77

40.00%

42.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

-8

-29

275

34

58

14.00%

27.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-17

-19

341

21

-25

7.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

109

17

2

883

124

78

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

106

18

2

726

162

141

29.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

138

20

8

1,170

211

68

22.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

79

7

6

449

14

108

3.00%

31.00%

 

 

Pacific

70

34

16

185

-3

85

-2.00%

85.00%

 

 

United States

79

12

-3

510

77

72

18.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

1

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

2

1

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

7

6

7

5,397

-1,134

-468

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

3

4

5,665

-1,119

-872

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-5

-2

4,915

-317

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-7

1

3,125

-118

-512

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

0

2

3,960

-587

-259

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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