Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-10-2024

Jul 10, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:57 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.334

$2.344

-0.43%

-$0.010

39,211

 

 

WTI

$81.20

$81.41

-0.26%

-$0.21

95,955

 

 

Brent

$84.50

$84.66

-0.19%

-$0.16

13,881

 

 

ULSD

$2.505

$2.524

-0.74%

-$0.019

14,732

 

 

RBOB

$2.503

$2.527

-0.98%

-$0.025

11,178

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.05

$4.10

-1.22%

-$0.05

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.05

$24.76

-2.84%

-$0.70

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$67.71

$65.26

3.75%

$2.45

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/05/24

585

4

-95

07/08/23

 

 

Canada

07/05/24

175

-1

0

07/08/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/28/19

 

 

 

6/28/24

6/21/24

Net Change

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

660

646

14

2.17%

643

2.64%

566

16.65%

 

 

Midwest

779

753

26

3.45%

705

10.50%

647

20.44%

 

 

Mountain

239

237

2

0.84%

173

38.15%

160

49.00%

 

 

Pacific

282

283

-1

-0.35%

216

30.56%

253

11.29%

 

 

South

1,174

1,179

-5

-0.42%

1,141

2.89%

1,031

13.87%

 

 

    Salt

326

334

-8

-2.40%

325

0.31%

293

11.11%

 

 

    Non_Salt

848

845

3

0.36%

816

3.92%

738

14.97%

 

 

Total

3,134

3,097

37

1.19%

2,877

8.93%

2,657

17.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/9/24

7/8/24

% Change

Change

6/7/24

% Change

7/10/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$72.73

$70.28

3.48%

$2.45

$64.99

11.90%

$55.26

31.62%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$127.03

$129.39

-1.82%

-$2.36

$185.01

-31.34%

$95.00

33.72%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$67.00

$65.26

2.67%

$1.74

$73.61

-8.98%

$114.58

-41.53%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$65.25

$65.45

-0.31%

-$0.20

$64.93

0.50%

$62.15

4.99%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$61.68

$57.54

7.19%

$4.14

$56.12

9.91%

$55.91

10.33%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$123.38

$122.84

0.44%

$0.54

$130.97

-5.79%

$190.04

-35.08%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$58.96

$59.39

-0.74%

-$0.44

$56.63

4.11%

$55.00

7.18%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/9/24

7/8/24

% Change

Change

6/7/24

% Change

7/10/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.344

$2.374

-1.26%

-$0.03

$3.00

-21.76%

$3.39

-30.92%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.359

-$0.352

1.90%

-$0.01

-$0.26

38.97%

-$0.21

73.98%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.487

-$0.460

-5.56%

-$0.03

-$0.51

-3.72%

-$0.20

148.22%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.705

-$1.670

-2.11%

-$0.04

-$1.11

53.32%

-$0.38

354.09%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.438

-$0.390

-12.26%

-$0.05

-$0.35

23.57%

-$0.08

480.50%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.836

-$1.920

-4.37%

$0.08

-$1.99

-7.54%

-$1.42

29.17%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.269

$0.310

-13.29%

-$0.04

$0.25

8.38%

$1.62

-83.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/9/24

7/8/24

% Change

Change

6/7/24

% Change

7/10/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.828

$0.841

-1.64%

-$0.01

$0.72

14.73%

$0.65

26.39%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.831

$0.838

-0.75%

-$0.01

$0.72

15.25%

$0.66

25.93%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.156

$0.155

0.96%

$0.00

$0.20

-23.29%

$0.25

-36.47%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.565

$1.583

-1.11%

-$0.02

$1.45

8.02%

$1.38

13.64%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.937

$0.938

-0.14%

$0.00

$0.79

19.10%

$0.73

27.86%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.340

$6.435

-1.48%

-$0.10

$6.10

3.93%

$4.90

29.38%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.820

$5.890

-1.19%

-$0.07

$5.50

5.87%

$4.53

28.44%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/9/24

7/8/24

% Change

Change

6/7/24

% Change

7/10/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$81.41

$82.33

-1.13%

-$0.92

$75.22

8.23%

$69.64

16.90%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$85.06

$86.14

-1.28%

-$1.09

$79.62

6.83%

$74.24

14.57%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$14.24

-$14.87

-4.44%

$0.63

-$12.50

13.91%

-$12.69

12.15%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$83.18

$83.69

-0.61%

-$0.51

$77.32

7.58%

$71.07

17.04%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$80.98

$81.45

-0.58%

-$0.47

$75.22

7.66%

$67.93

19.22%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$81.69

$82.03

-0.41%

-$0.34

$75.28

8.52%

$68.64

19.01%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$83.06

$84.14

-1.31%

-$1.09

$77.62

7.00%

$72.24

14.97%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/9/24

7/8/24

% Change

Change

6/7/24

% Change

7/10/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.53

$2.57

-1.87%

-$0.05

$2.37

6.72%

$2.42

4.47%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.52

$2.53

-0.43%

-$0.01

$2.36

6.95%

$2.25

12.33%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.42

$2.43

-0.45%

-$0.01

$2.26

7.26%

$2.15

12.91%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.49

$2.54

-1.93%

-$0.05

$2.32

7.52%

$2.32

7.15%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.80

$1.85

-2.81%

-$0.05

$1.78

0.84%

$1.59

12.99%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$734.03

$748.89

-1.98%

-$14.85

$686.01

7.00%

$660.09

11.20%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$100.18

$100.84

-0.66%

-$0.66

$93.34

7.33%

$93.24

7.44%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/9/24

7/8/24

% Change

Change

6/7/24

% Change

7/10/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

51.39%

52.35%

-1.83%

-0.96%

63.30%

-18.82%

42.14%

21.95%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

63.84%

59.33%

7.60%

4.51%

73.24%

-12.83%

41.07%

55.44%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

260.30%

265.55%

-1.98%

-5.25%

100.66%

158.59%

51.57%

404.75%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

64.46%

58.95%

9.35%

5.51%

73.24%

-11.99%

42.59%

51.35%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

95.46%

100.13%

-4.66%

-4.67%

79.91%

19.46%

48.32%

97.56%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

333.92%

275.78%

21.08%

58.14%

108.50%

207.76%

81.39%

310.27%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

124.83%

339.83%

-63.27%

-215.00%

370.81%

-66.34%

180.10%

-30.69%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/9/24

7/8/24

% Change

Change

6/7/24

% Change

7/10/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 31.09

EUR 32.15

-3.29%

-EUR 1.06

EUR 33.44

-7.02%

EUR 49.28

-36.92%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 72.19

GBP 74.82

-3.52%

-GBP 2.64

GBP 80.33

-10.13%

GBP 122.36

-41.01%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 70.79

EUR 72.25

-2.02%

-EUR 1.46

EUR 78.25

-9.53%

EUR 128.85

-45.06%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 64.48

GBP 67.79

-4.88%

-GBP 3.31

GBP 71.58

-9.91%

GBP 110.32

-41.55%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 41.85

EUR 42.78

-2.17%

-EUR 0.93

EUR 41.08

1.88%

EUR 127.25

-67.11%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 97.70

EUR 98.60

-0.91%

-EUR 0.90

EUR 102.46

-4.65%

EUR 141.18

-30.80%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$11.87

$12.35

-3.89%

-$0.48

$11.93

-0.49%

$16.85

-29.56%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/9/24

7/8/24

% Change

Change

6/7/24

% Change

7/10/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$31.09

$32.15

-3.29%

-$1.06

$33.44

-7.02%

$49.28

-36.92%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$72.19

$74.82

-3.52%

-$2.64

$80.33

-10.13%

$122.36

-41.01%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$70.79

$72.25

-2.02%

-$1.46

$78.25

-9.53%

$128.85

-45.06%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$64.48

$67.79

-4.88%

-$3.31

$71.58

-9.91%

$110.32

-41.55%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$41.85

$42.78

-2.17%

-$0.93

$41.08

1.88%

$127.25

-67.11%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$97.70

$98.60

-0.91%

-$0.90

$102.46

-4.65%

$141.18

-30.80%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$11.87

$12.35

-3.89%

-$0.48

$11.93

-0.49%

$16.85

-29.56%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

46

14

-9

173

76

41

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

64

16

-10

255

73

77

40.00%

42.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

-8

-29

275

34

58

14.00%

27.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-17

-19

341

21

-25

7.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

109

17

2

883

124

78

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

106

18

2

726

162

141

29.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

138

20

8

1,170

211

68

22.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

79

7

6

449

14

108

3.00%

31.00%

 

 

Pacific

70

34

16

185

-3

85

-2.00%

85.00%

 

 

United States

79

12

-3

510

77

72

18.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

1

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

2

1

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

7

6

7

5,397

-1,134

-468

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

3

4

5,665

-1,119

-872

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-5

-2

4,915

-317

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-7

1

3,125

-118

-512

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

0

2

3,960

-587

-259

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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