Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-11-2024

Jul 11, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:46 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.312

$2.329

-0.73%

-$0.017

17,527

 

 

WTI

$82.45

$82.10

0.43%

$0.35

61,045

 

 

Brent

$85.09

$85.08

0.01%

$0.01

8,667

 

 

ULSD

$2.527

$2.518

0.33%

$0.008

3,712

 

 

RBOB

$2.510

$2.503

0.26%

$0.006

3,857

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.05

$4.01

1.00%

$0.04

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.93

$23.65

1.19%

$0.28

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$69.52

$67.74

2.63%

$1.78

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/05/24

585

4

-95

07/08/23

 

 

Canada

07/05/24

175

-1

0

07/08/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/28/19

 

 

 

6/28/24

6/21/24

Net Change

% Change

6/30/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

660

646

14

2.17%

643

2.64%

566

16.65%

 

 

Midwest

779

753

26

3.45%

705

10.50%

647

20.44%

 

 

Mountain

239

237

2

0.84%

173

38.15%

160

49.00%

 

 

Pacific

282

283

-1

-0.35%

216

30.56%

253

11.29%

 

 

South

1,174

1,179

-5

-0.42%

1,141

2.89%

1,031

13.87%

 

 

    Salt

326

334

-8

-2.40%

325

0.31%

293

11.11%

 

 

    Non_Salt

848

845

3

0.36%

816

3.92%

738

14.97%

 

 

Total

3,134

3,097

37

1.19%

2,877

8.93%

2,657

17.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/10/24

7/9/24

% Change

Change

6/10/24

% Change

7/11/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$74.44

$72.73

2.35%

$1.71

$68.49

8.69%

$56.83

30.97%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$121.98

$127.03

-3.97%

-$5.05

$177.28

-31.19%

$103.44

17.92%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$67.63

$67.00

0.95%

$0.63

$71.12

-4.90%

$115.63

-41.51%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$63.50

$65.25

-2.68%

-$1.75

$68.60

-7.43%

$64.44

-1.45%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$63.52

$61.68

2.99%

$1.84

$58.32

8.92%

$53.39

18.98%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$126.09

$123.38

2.20%

$2.71

$120.20

4.90%

$190.33

-33.75%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$58.64

$58.96

-0.54%

-$0.32

$56.11

4.51%

$55.68

5.32%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/10/24

7/9/24

% Change

Change

6/10/24

% Change

7/11/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.329

$2.344

-0.64%

-$0.02

$2.98

-21.77%

$3.42

-31.86%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.335

-$0.359

-6.85%

$0.02

-$0.29

16.15%

-$0.20

64.37%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.446

-$0.487

9.09%

$0.04

-$0.58

-23.63%

-$0.20

124.77%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.627

-$1.705

-4.56%

$0.08

-$1.19

37.20%

-$0.35

359.82%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.403

-$0.438

7.90%

$0.03

-$0.42

-4.14%

-$0.07

449.93%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.777

-$1.836

-3.21%

$0.06

-$2.28

-22.10%

-$1.42

24.83%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.300

$0.269

11.64%

$0.03

$0.16

86.81%

$1.60

-81.28%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/10/24

7/9/24

% Change

Change

6/10/24

% Change

7/11/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.812

$0.828

-1.81%

-$0.02

$0.75

8.69%

$0.67

22.07%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.815

$0.831

-1.96%

-$0.02

$0.74

9.40%

$0.66

22.62%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.165

$0.156

5.82%

$0.01

$0.21

-21.72%

$0.25

-33.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.563

$1.565

-0.16%

$0.00

$1.49

4.93%

$1.39

12.67%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.926

$0.937

-1.20%

-$0.01

$0.80

16.19%

$0.75

24.26%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.322

$6.340

-0.28%

-$0.02

$6.06

4.33%

$5.02

25.87%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.820

$5.820

0.00%

$0.00

$5.50

5.82%

$4.57

27.44%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/10/24

7/9/24

% Change

Change

6/10/24

% Change

7/11/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$82.10

$81.41

0.84%

$0.69

$77.33

6.17%

$71.00

15.63%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$85.53

$85.06

0.56%

$0.47

$81.63

4.78%

$75.56

13.19%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$13.75

-$14.24

-3.56%

$0.49

-$12.50

9.98%

-$12.32

11.62%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$83.89

$83.18

0.85%

$0.71

$77.28

8.56%

$73.54

14.07%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$81.59

$80.98

0.75%

$0.61

$75.22

8.46%

$68.11

19.80%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$82.76

$81.69

1.30%

$1.07

$75.26

9.97%

$68.97

19.99%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$83.53

$83.06

0.57%

$0.47

$79.63

4.90%

$73.56

13.55%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/10/24

7/9/24

% Change

Change

6/10/24

% Change

7/11/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.53

$2.53

0.04%

$0.00

$2.43

3.87%

$2.48

1.77%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.51

$2.52

-0.48%

-$0.01

$2.40

4.67%

$2.26

11.01%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.41

$2.42

-0.50%

-$0.01

$2.30

4.87%

$2.16

11.52%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.49

$2.49

0.00%

$0.00

$2.39

4.32%

$2.24

11.27%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.81

$1.80

0.44%

$0.01

$1.82

-0.66%

$1.70

6.67%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$734.38

$734.03

0.05%

$0.35

$699.99

4.91%

$664.21

10.56%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$98.91

$100.18

-1.27%

-$1.27

$93.97

5.25%

$91.68

7.88%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/10/24

7/9/24

% Change

Change

6/10/24

% Change

7/11/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

48.29%

51.39%

-6.03%

-3.10%

67.18%

-28.12%

42.10%

14.70%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

61.84%

63.84%

-3.13%

-2.00%

75.75%

-18.36%

41.82%

47.87%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

258.95%

260.30%

-0.52%

-1.35%

100.54%

157.56%

52.44%

393.80%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

57.31%

64.46%

-11.09%

-7.15%

75.85%

-24.44%

42.56%

34.66%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

93.34%

95.46%

-2.22%

-2.12%

80.45%

16.02%

49.55%

88.38%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

301.48%

333.92%

-9.71%

-32.44%

67.65%

345.65%

87.55%

244.35%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

272.03%

124.83%

117.92%

147.20%

369.18%

-26.32%

180.52%

50.69%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/10/24

7/9/24

% Change

Change

6/10/24

% Change

7/11/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 30.66

EUR 31.09

-1.39%

-EUR 0.43

EUR 34.35

-10.77%

EUR 48.62

-36.95%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 70.98

GBP 72.19

-1.67%

-GBP 1.21

GBP 82.59

-14.06%

GBP 115.96

-38.79%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 69.25

EUR 70.79

-2.19%

-EUR 1.55

EUR 80.31

-13.78%

EUR 124.48

-44.37%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 63.24

GBP 64.48

-1.93%

-GBP 1.25

GBP 71.55

-11.61%

GBP 103.29

-38.78%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 41.41

EUR 41.85

-1.04%

-EUR 0.44

EUR 44.31

-6.55%

EUR 121.28

-65.85%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 95.75

EUR 97.70

-2.00%

-EUR 1.95

EUR 103.92

-7.86%

EUR 137.84

-30.54%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.28

$11.87

3.45%

$0.41

$12.23

0.39%

$15.65

-21.54%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/10/24

7/9/24

% Change

Change

6/10/24

% Change

7/11/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$30.66

$31.09

-1.39%

-$0.43

$34.35

-10.77%

$48.62

-36.95%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$70.98

$72.19

-1.67%

-$1.21

$82.59

-14.06%

$115.96

-38.79%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$69.25

$70.79

-2.19%

-$1.55

$80.31

-13.78%

$124.48

-44.37%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$63.24

$64.48

-1.93%

-$1.25

$71.55

-11.61%

$103.29

-38.78%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$41.41

$41.85

-1.04%

-$0.44

$44.31

-6.55%

$121.28

-65.85%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$95.75

$97.70

-2.00%

-$1.95

$103.92

-7.86%

$137.84

-30.54%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.28

$11.87

3.45%

$0.41

$12.23

0.39%

$15.65

-21.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

46

14

-9

173

76

41

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

64

16

-10

255

73

77

40.00%

42.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

-8

-29

275

34

58

14.00%

27.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-17

-19

341

21

-25

7.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

109

17

2

883

124

78

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

106

18

2

726

162

141

29.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

138

20

8

1,170

211

68

22.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

79

7

6

449

14

108

3.00%

31.00%

 

 

Pacific

70

34

16

185

-3

85

-2.00%

85.00%

 

 

United States

79

12

-3

510

77

72

18.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

1

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

2

1

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

7

6

7

5,397

-1,134

-468

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

3

4

5,665

-1,119

-872

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-5

-2

4,915

-317

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-7

1

3,125

-118

-512

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

0

2

3,960

-587

-259

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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