Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-12-2023

Jul 12, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:36 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.646

$2.731

-3.11%

-$0.085

43,216

 

 

WTI

$75.57

$74.83

0.99%

$0.74

99,192

 

 

Brent

$80.02

$79.40

0.78%

$0.62

6,393

 

 

ULSD

$2.613

$2.584

1.11%

$0.029

11,859

 

 

RBOB

$2.641

$2.623

0.69%

$0.018

11,856

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.62

$4.69

-1.49%

-$0.07

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.76

$32.67

0.27%

$0.09

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$43.98

$43.17

1.88%

$0.81

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/07/23

680

6

-72

07/08/22

 

 

Canada

07/07/23

175

8

0

07/08/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/3/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

115,612

115,162

114,958

204

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

95,535

95,186

94,903

283

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

433,375

405,614

421,087

-15,473

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

258,532

191,197

189,824

1,373

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

130,715

122,286

123,956

-1,670

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,797

32,518

32,467

51

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

173,565

172,535

173,006

-471

 

 

RBOB

321,219

297,884

306,354

-8,470

 

 

HSC Basis

596,140

591,281

585,745

5,536

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/06/18

 

 

 

6/30/23

6/23/23

Net Change

% Change

7/1/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

643

623

20

3.21%

482

33.40%

537

19.78%

 

 

Midwest

705

685

20

2.92%

562

25.44%

607

16.14%

 

 

Mountain

173

165

8

4.85%

138

25.36%

156

11.18%

 

 

Pacific

216

204

12

5.88%

240

-10.00%

264

-18.12%

 

 

South

1,141

1,128

13

1.15%

890

28.20%

975

16.98%

 

 

    Salt

325

330

-5

-1.52%

233

39.48%

276

17.92%

 

 

    Non_Salt

816

798

18

2.26%

657

24.20%

700

16.64%

 

 

Total

2,877

2,805

72

2.57%

2,311

24.49%

2,538

13.34%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/23

7/10/23

% Change

Change

6/9/23

% Change

7/12/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$49.63

$49.01

1.27%

$0.62

$46.83

5.99%

$73.49

-32.46%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$146.93

$122.35

20.09%

$24.58

$85.87

71.12%

$111.21

32.12%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$119.15

$104.47

14.05%

$14.68

$110.49

7.84%

$110.42

7.91%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$54.05

$53.37

1.29%

$0.69

$53.08

1.83%

$79.47

-31.99%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$42.51

$46.72

-9.01%

-$4.21

$50.85

-16.39%

$61.23

-30.57%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$198.41

$200.91

-1.24%

-$2.49

$192.14

3.26%

$135.05

46.92%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$47.16

$46.22

2.03%

$0.94

$48.54

-2.85%

$60.42

-21.94%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/23

7/10/23

% Change

Change

6/9/23

% Change

7/12/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-23

$2.731

$2.669

2.32%

$0.06

$2.33

17.16%

$4.55

-39.93%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-23

-$0.207

-$0.223

-7.22%

$0.02

-$0.08

148.86%

-$0.18

15.21%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-23

-$0.288

-$0.315

9.40%

$0.03

-$0.20

42.60%

-$0.21

39.63%

 

 

Waha

Aug-23

-$0.447

-$0.535

-16.57%

$0.09

-$0.69

-35.17%

-$1.68

-73.46%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-23

-$0.399

-$0.405

1.38%

$0.01

$0.36

-210.71%

-$0.51

-21.16%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-23

-$0.902

-$0.909

-0.84%

$0.01

-$0.97

-7.44%

-$1.21

-25.53%

 

 

Socal

Aug-23

$1.374

$1.408

-2.39%

-$0.03

$2.73

-49.59%

$0.69

99.77%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/23

7/10/23

% Change

Change

6/9/23

% Change

7/12/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.623

$0.603

3.34%

$0.02

$0.58

7.42%

$0.92

-32.64%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.598

$0.575

3.94%

$0.02

$0.58

3.09%

$0.93

-35.63%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.254

$0.250

1.69%

$0.00

$0.19

32.08%

$0.32

-20.89%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.377

$1.365

0.84%

$0.01

$1.36

1.25%

$1.82

-24.25%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.691

$0.669

3.14%

$0.02

$0.63

9.42%

$1.16

-40.32%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.593

$0.578

2.72%

$0.02

$0.58

2.31%

$0.93

-36.29%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.487

$1.475

0.84%

$0.01

$1.43

4.33%

$1.80

-17.49%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/23

7/10/23

% Change

Change

6/9/23

% Change

7/12/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$74.71

$72.95

2.36%

$1.76

$70.27

6.32%

$79.11

-5.56%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$79.40

$77.69

2.15%

$1.71

$74.74

6.23%

$84.60

-6.15%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$12.97

-$13.51

-4.17%

$0.54

-$13.75

-5.71%

-$16.10

-19.47%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$76.78

$74.89

2.45%

$1.88

$69.85

9.91%

$84.21

-8.82%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$74.70

$73.21

2.00%

$1.49

$66.94

11.59%

$73.52

1.60%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$75.78

$74.31

1.93%

$1.47

$69.64

8.81%

$78.02

-2.87%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$77.40

$75.69

2.21%

$1.71

$73.47

5.34%

$77.18

0.29%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/23

7/10/23

% Change

Change

6/9/23

% Change

7/12/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.58

$2.55

1.17%

$0.03

$2.36

9.58%

$2.93

-11.90%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.56

$2.56

0.16%

$0.00

$2.49

2.93%

$2.50

2.60%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.46

$2.46

0.16%

$0.00

$2.39

3.06%

$2.40

2.71%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.40

$2.50

-4.27%

-$0.11

$2.19

9.40%

$2.86

-16.19%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.28

$2.28

0.09%

$0.00

$2.33

-2.36%

$2.14

6.30%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$703.89

$697.61

0.90%

$6.28

$651.99

7.96%

$858.74

-18.03%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$96.00

$96.02

-0.01%

-$0.01

$92.31

4.01%

$113.77

-15.61%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/23

7/10/23

% Change

Change

6/9/23

% Change

7/12/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

55.64%

62.06%

-10.34%

-6.42%

68.90%

-19.25%

54.19%

2.68%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

63.64%

74.02%

-14.02%

-10.38%

75.47%

-15.68%

70.23%

-9.38%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

88.67%

82.25%

7.81%

6.42%

101.39%

-12.55%

143.99%

-38.42%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

63.73%

67.53%

-5.63%

-3.80%

68.32%

-6.72%

56.25%

13.30%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

77.89%

79.36%

-1.85%

-1.47%

73.25%

6.33%

61.20%

27.27%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

253.93%

289.67%

-12.34%

-35.74%

144.43%

75.82%

73.83%

243.94%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

306.75%

296.24%

3.55%

10.51%

205.55%

49.23%

99.39%

208.63%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/23

7/10/23

% Change

Change

6/9/23

% Change

7/12/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 29.59

EUR 29.60

-0.02%

-EUR 0.01

EUR 33.49

-11.64%

EUR 126.67

-76.64%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 71.88

GBP 72.66

-1.07%

-GBP 0.78

GBP 86.96

-17.34%

GBP 277.11

-74.06%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 87.21

EUR 89.01

-2.02%

-EUR 1.80

EUR 99.53

-12.37%

EUR 310.38

-71.90%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 75.71

GBP 81.26

-6.83%

-GBP 5.55

GBP 86.44

-12.42%

GBP 248.18

-69.50%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 86.34

EUR 90.64

-4.75%

-EUR 4.30

EUR 98.15

-12.03%

EUR 274.47

-68.54%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 106.25

EUR 104.47

1.70%

EUR 1.78

EUR 116.42

-8.74%

EUR 303.46

-64.99%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$11.57

$10.83

6.84%

$0.74

$11.44

1.15%

$33.43

-65.40%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/08/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

65

31

25

143

36

-7

34.00%

-5.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

82

32

24

190

-7

-39

-4.00%

-17.00%

 

 

E N Central

62

11

0

221

-35

-112

-14.00%

-34.00%

 

 

W N Central

52

-13

-29

371

32

-62

9.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

112

19

3

820

35

-130

4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

E S Central

100

10

-16

597

7

-159

1.00%

-21.00%

 

 

W S Central

125

6

-21

1,120

127

-180

13.00%

-14.00%

 

 

Mountain

77

4

2

352

-104

-141

-23.00%

-29.00%

 

 

Pacific

45

8

14

105

-93

-96

-47.00%

-48.00%

 

 

United States

81

12

2

449

-4

-106

-1.00%

-19.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/08/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-3

-2

0

-3

-2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

0

0

1

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

3

7

7

2

7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-4

3

4

-4

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-8

-4

1

-8

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

1

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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