Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-12-2024

Jul 12, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:41 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.272

$2.268

0.18%

$0.004

23,131

 

 

WTI

$83.40

$82.62

0.94%

$0.78

80,367

 

 

Brent

$86.01

$85.40

0.71%

$0.61

12,086

 

 

ULSD

$2.538

$2.518

0.77%

$0.019

4,169

 

 

RBOB

$2.533

$2.518

0.59%

$0.015

4,270

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.01

$4.02

-0.25%

-$0.01

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.77

$23.78

-0.02%

$0.00

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$66.60

$69.58

-4.29%

-$2.99

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/05/24

585

4

-95

07/08/23

 

 

Canada

07/05/24

175

-1

0

07/08/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/25/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,682

96,098

96,189

-91

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,730

86,250

86,003

247

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,409

353,401

357,119

-3,718

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,911

139,433

134,150

5,283

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,363

122,201

122,387

-186

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,999

38,325

38,563

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,065

157,918

158,605

-687

 

 

RBOB

379,577

355,254

362,282

-7,028

 

 

HSC Basis

853,835

846,280

848,647

-2,367

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/05/19

 

 

 

7/5/24

6/28/24

Net Change

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

682

660

22

3.33%

653

4.44%

583

17.06%

 

 

Midwest

800

779

21

2.70%

724

10.50%

670

19.44%

 

 

Mountain

245

239

6

2.51%

180

36.11%

166

47.77%

 

 

Pacific

289

282

7

2.48%

225

28.44%

260

11.24%

 

 

South

1,183

1,174

9

0.77%

1,147

3.14%

1,037

14.04%

 

 

    Salt

327

326

1

0.31%

323

1.24%

289

13.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

856

848

8

0.94%

824

3.88%

749

14.35%

 

 

Total

3,199

3,134

65

2.07%

2,930

9.18%

2,715

17.81%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/24

7/10/24

% Change

Change

6/11/24

% Change

7/12/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$71.46

$74.44

-4.00%

-$2.98

$76.71

-6.84%

$56.24

27.05%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$115.21

$121.98

-5.55%

-$6.77

$177.14

-34.96%

$105.91

8.78%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$64.71

$67.63

-4.32%

-$2.92

$70.93

-8.77%

$149.71

-56.77%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$59.19

$63.50

-6.79%

-$4.31

$76.49

-22.62%

$63.36

-6.58%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$63.73

$63.52

0.33%

$0.21

$60.04

6.15%

$54.86

16.17%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$119.23

$126.09

-5.44%

-$6.86

$136.39

-12.59%

$226.50

-47.36%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$59.04

$58.64

0.68%

$0.40

$63.61

-7.19%

$53.93

9.46%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/24

7/10/24

% Change

Change

6/11/24

% Change

7/12/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.268

$2.329

-2.62%

-$0.06

$3.19

-28.97%

$3.38

-32.80%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.335

-$0.335

0.21%

$0.00

-$0.29

14.52%

-$0.21

61.31%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.409

-$0.446

9.14%

$0.04

-$0.59

-30.87%

-$0.20

103.89%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.691

-$1.627

-3.90%

-$0.06

-$1.17

44.39%

-$0.33

417.98%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.379

-$0.403

6.05%

$0.02

-$0.37

2.35%

-$0.08

397.63%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.663

-$1.777

-6.41%

$0.11

-$2.43

-31.44%

-$1.40

19.05%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.271

$0.300

-9.69%

-$0.03

$0.15

76.04%

$1.54

-82.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/24

7/10/24

% Change

Change

6/11/24

% Change

7/12/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.812

$0.812

0.00%

$0.00

$0.77

6.03%

$0.68

19.45%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.815

$0.815

0.00%

$0.00

$0.76

7.95%

$0.67

20.88%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.166

$0.165

0.54%

$0.00

$0.21

-22.27%

$0.25

-32.70%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.575

$1.563

0.80%

$0.01

$1.50

5.17%

$1.39

13.27%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.920

$0.926

-0.58%

-$0.01

$0.82

11.63%

$0.75

22.03%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.370

$6.322

0.76%

$0.05

$6.09

4.61%

$5.00

27.45%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.830

$5.820

0.17%

$0.01

$5.48

6.40%

$4.67

24.94%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/24

7/10/24

% Change

Change

6/11/24

% Change

7/12/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$81.38

$81.07

0.38%

$0.31

$77.08

5.58%

$71.17

14.35%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$85.40

$85.08

0.37%

$0.32

$81.54

4.73%

$75.87

12.56%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$16.93

-$14.47

14.55%

-$2.46

-$13.80

22.72%

-$12.34

37.24%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$82.99

$82.88

0.13%

$0.11

$78.78

5.33%

$73.62

12.72%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$80.08

$80.65

-0.71%

-$0.57

$76.68

4.43%

$68.98

16.09%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$81.59

$81.32

0.33%

$0.27

$76.84

6.18%

$69.69

17.08%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$83.40

$83.08

0.38%

$0.32

$79.54

4.85%

$73.87

12.90%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/24

7/10/24

% Change

Change

6/11/24

% Change

7/12/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.53

$2.53

0.00%

$0.00

$2.44

3.61%

$2.45

2.98%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.51

$2.51

-0.12%

$0.00

$2.40

4.46%

$2.34

7.36%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.41

$2.41

-0.12%

$0.00

$2.30

4.65%

$2.24

7.69%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.45

$2.49

-1.49%

-$0.04

$2.42

1.32%

$2.25

8.93%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.87

$1.81

3.48%

$0.06

$1.84

1.96%

$1.60

16.86%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$733.75

$734.38

-0.09%

-$0.63

$709.00

3.49%

$657.34

11.62%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$100.30

$98.91

1.41%

$1.39

$96.20

4.26%

$93.36

7.44%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/24

7/10/24

% Change

Change

6/11/24

% Change

7/12/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

52.08%

48.29%

7.85%

3.79%

60.90%

-14.48%

44.97%

15.81%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

77.10%

61.84%

24.68%

15.26%

75.91%

1.57%

44.87%

71.83%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

270.80%

258.95%

4.58%

11.85%

105.40%

156.93%

53.09%

410.08%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

73.13%

57.31%

27.60%

15.82%

71.92%

1.68%

45.63%

60.27%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

99.87%

93.34%

7.00%

6.53%

82.89%

20.48%

50.01%

99.70%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

302.64%

301.48%

0.38%

1.16%

100.97%

199.73%

87.73%

244.97%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

266.15%

272.03%

-2.16%

-5.88%

376.15%

-29.24%

180.97%

47.07%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/24

7/10/24

% Change

Change

6/11/24

% Change

7/12/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 31.11

EUR 30.66

1.49%

EUR 0.46

EUR 34.74

-10.43%

EUR 46.81

-33.54%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 72.16

GBP 70.98

1.67%

GBP 1.19

GBP 81.49

-11.44%

GBP 113.01

-36.14%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 69.98

EUR 69.25

1.06%

EUR 0.73

EUR 78.93

-11.35%

EUR 119.74

-41.56%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 64.25

GBP 63.24

1.60%

GBP 1.01

GBP 72.14

-10.94%

GBP 103.33

-37.82%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 44.16

EUR 41.41

6.63%

EUR 2.75

EUR 44.84

-1.51%

EUR 112.00

-60.58%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 97.47

EUR 95.75

1.80%

EUR 1.73

EUR 105.47

-7.58%

EUR 132.13

-26.23%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.48

$12.28

1.68%

$0.21

$12.25

1.89%

$15.24

-18.10%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/11/24

7/10/24

% Change

Change

6/11/24

% Change

7/12/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$31.11

$30.66

1.49%

$0.46

$34.74

-10.43%

$46.81

-33.54%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$72.16

$70.98

1.67%

$1.19

$81.49

-11.44%

$113.01

-36.14%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$69.98

$69.25

1.06%

$0.73

$78.93

-11.35%

$119.74

-41.56%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$64.25

$63.24

1.60%

$1.01

$72.14

-10.94%

$103.33

-37.82%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$44.16

$41.41

6.63%

$2.75

$44.84

-1.51%

$112.00

-60.58%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$97.47

$95.75

1.80%

$1.73

$105.47

-7.58%

$132.13

-26.23%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.48

$12.28

1.68%

$0.21

$12.25

1.89%

$15.24

-18.10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

46

14

-9

173

76

41

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

64

16

-10

255

73

77

40.00%

42.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

-8

-29

275

34

58

14.00%

27.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-17

-19

341

21

-25

7.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

109

17

2

883

124

78

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

106

18

2

726

162

141

29.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

138

20

8

1,170

211

68

22.00%

6.00%

 

 

Mountain

79

7

6

449

14

108

3.00%

31.00%

 

 

Pacific

70

34

16

185

-3

85

-2.00%

85.00%

 

 

United States

79

12

-3

510

77

72

18.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/06/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

1

5,776

-869

-3

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

2

1

5,173

-770

16

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

7

6

7

5,397

-1,134

-468

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

3

4

5,665

-1,119

-872

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-5

-2

4,915

-317

-599

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-7

1

3,125

-118

-512

-4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

2

0

2

3,960

-587

-259

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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