Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-15-2024

Jul 15, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:28 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.226

$2.329

-4.42%

-$0.103

37,971

 

 

WTI

$82.27

$82.21

0.07%

$0.06

79,132

 

 

Brent

$85.07

$85.03

0.05%

$0.04

10,366

 

 

ULSD

$2.504

$2.510

-0.21%

-$0.005

6,154

 

 

RBOB

$2.501

$2.515

-0.55%

-$0.014

6,391

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.03

$4.01

0.50%

$0.02

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.42

$23.92

-2.09%

-$0.50

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$70.12

$66.48

5.48%

$3.64

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/12/24

584

-1

-91

07/15/23

 

 

Canada

07/12/24

189

14

2

07/15/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,243

95,088

97,062

-1,974

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,146

86,378

88,128

-1,750

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

355,667

340,026

343,110

-3,084

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

296,292

256,909

249,028

7,881

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,906

110,494

111,825

-1,331

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,684

35,908

36,195

-287

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

165,547

164,258

165,064

-806

 

 

RBOB

403,312

376,410

387,936

-11,526

 

 

HSC Basis

876,614

858,735

870,285

-11,550

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/05/19

 

 

 

7/5/24

6/28/24

Net Change

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

682

660

22

3.33%

653

4.44%

583

17.06%

 

 

Midwest

800

779

21

2.70%

724

10.50%

670

19.44%

 

 

Mountain

245

239

6

2.51%

180

36.11%

166

47.77%

 

 

Pacific

289

282

7

2.48%

225

28.44%

260

11.24%

 

 

South

1,183

1,174

9

0.77%

1,147

3.14%

1,037

14.04%

 

 

    Salt

327

326

1

0.31%

323

1.24%

289

13.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

856

848

8

0.94%

824

3.88%

749

14.35%

 

 

Total

3,199

3,134

65

2.07%

2,930

9.18%

2,715

17.81%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/12/24

7/11/24

% Change

Change

6/12/24

% Change

7/13/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$74.86

$71.46

4.76%

$3.40

$77.41

-3.30%

$55.65

34.51%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$122.69

$115.21

6.49%

$7.48

$175.76

-30.20%

$107.50

14.13%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$69.75

$64.71

7.78%

$5.03

$71.70

-2.72%

$115.17

-39.44%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$63.32

$59.19

6.98%

$4.13

$74.97

-15.53%

$62.80

0.82%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$67.38

$63.73

5.72%

$3.65

$66.41

1.46%

$55.40

21.62%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$126.11

$119.23

5.77%

$6.88

$119.01

5.97%

$197.35

-36.10%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$62.14

$59.04

5.26%

$3.11

$63.80

-2.60%

$54.45

14.13%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/12/24

7/11/24

% Change

Change

6/12/24

% Change

7/13/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.329

$2.268

2.69%

$0.06

$3.12

-25.40%

$3.37

-30.79%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.351

-$0.335

4.77%

-$0.02

-$0.30

17.97%

-$0.22

60.37%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.411

-$0.409

-0.54%

$0.00

-$0.62

-33.61%

-$0.21

92.96%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.704

-$1.691

-0.80%

-$0.01

-$1.12

51.86%

-$0.36

377.93%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.378

-$0.379

0.16%

$0.00

-$0.40

-6.23%

-$0.08

381.66%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.689

-$1.663

1.55%

-$0.03

-$2.45

-31.15%

-$1.38

22.06%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.270

$0.271

-0.26%

$0.00

$0.14

92.05%

$1.57

-82.72%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/12/24

7/11/24

% Change

Change

6/12/24

% Change

7/13/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.811

$0.812

-0.15%

$0.00

$0.79

2.69%

$0.70

16.54%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.818

$0.815

0.31%

$0.00

$0.79

3.81%

$0.69

18.67%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.168

$0.166

0.73%

$0.00

$0.21

-20.71%

$0.24

-31.48%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.583

$1.575

0.48%

$0.01

$1.52

3.88%

$1.42

11.57%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.920

$0.920

-0.04%

$0.00

$0.85

8.35%

$0.76

20.58%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.402

$6.370

0.51%

$0.03

$6.05

5.76%

$5.09

25.88%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.890

$5.830

1.03%

$0.06

$5.60

5.17%

$4.69

25.56%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/12/24

7/11/24

% Change

Change

6/12/24

% Change

7/13/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$81.02

$81.38

-0.44%

-$0.36

$77.68

4.30%

$72.13

12.32%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$85.03

$85.40

-0.44%

-$0.37

$82.15

3.51%

$76.74

10.80%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$15.45

-$16.93

-9.61%

$1.48

-$14.00

10.36%

-$13.29

16.25%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$82.20

$82.99

-0.95%

-$0.78

$79.08

3.95%

$74.14

10.87%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$80.03

$80.08

-0.06%

-$0.05

$76.98

3.96%

$69.32

15.44%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$80.93

$81.59

-0.81%

-$0.65

$77.10

4.97%

$70.26

15.20%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$83.03

$83.40

-0.45%

-$0.37

$80.15

3.59%

$74.74

11.09%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/12/24

7/11/24

% Change

Change

6/12/24

% Change

7/13/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.51

$2.53

-0.55%

-$0.01

$2.45

2.53%

$2.48

1.25%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.51

$2.51

0.12%

$0.00

$2.38

5.55%

$2.36

6.62%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.41

$2.41

0.12%

$0.00

$2.28

5.79%

$2.26

6.92%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.45

$2.45

0.00%

$0.00

$2.44

0.45%

$2.24

9.46%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.92

$1.87

2.62%

$0.05

$1.90

1.16%

$1.62

18.37%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$737.37

$733.75

0.49%

$3.63

$707.75

4.19%

$665.92

10.73%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$100.06

$100.30

-0.24%

-$0.24

$97.27

2.87%

$93.72

6.76%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/12/24

7/11/24

% Change

Change

6/12/24

% Change

7/13/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

49.28%

52.08%

-5.38%

-2.80%

70.50%

-30.10%

45.27%

8.86%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

60.72%

77.10%

-21.25%

-16.38%

85.01%

-28.57%

44.82%

35.48%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

259.40%

270.80%

-4.21%

-11.40%

111.59%

132.46%

56.52%

358.95%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

58.95%

73.13%

-19.39%

-14.18%

83.77%

-29.63%

46.47%

26.86%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

104.12%

99.87%

4.26%

4.25%

89.85%

15.88%

49.21%

111.58%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

311.73%

302.64%

3.00%

9.09%

103.89%

200.06%

84.60%

268.48%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

343.40%

266.15%

29.02%

77.25%

384.11%

-10.60%

180.87%

89.86%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/12/24

7/11/24

% Change

Change

6/12/24

% Change

7/13/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 31.59

EUR 31.11

1.53%

EUR 0.48

EUR 35.16

-10.15%

EUR 47.42

-33.39%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 72.88

GBP 72.16

0.99%

GBP 0.71

GBP 83.98

-13.22%

GBP 115.26

-36.77%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 70.79

EUR 69.98

1.15%

EUR 0.81

EUR 79.15

-10.57%

EUR 117.19

-39.60%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 64.33

GBP 64.25

0.12%

GBP 0.08

GBP 74.51

-13.66%

GBP 101.37

-36.54%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 44.57

EUR 44.16

0.94%

EUR 0.41

EUR 43.37

2.77%

EUR 111.32

-59.96%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 98.76

EUR 97.47

1.32%

EUR 1.28

EUR 104.49

-5.49%

EUR 131.52

-24.91%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.40

$12.48

-0.62%

-$0.08

$12.70

-2.32%

$14.94

-16.99%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/12/24

7/11/24

% Change

Change

6/12/24

% Change

7/13/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$31.59

$31.11

1.53%

$0.48

$35.16

-10.15%

$47.42

-33.39%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$72.88

$72.16

0.99%

$0.71

$83.98

-13.22%

$115.26

-36.77%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$70.79

$69.98

1.15%

$0.81

$79.15

-10.57%

$117.19

-39.60%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$64.33

$64.25

0.12%

$0.08

$74.51

-13.66%

$101.37

-36.54%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$44.57

$44.16

0.94%

$0.41

$43.37

2.77%

$111.32

-59.96%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$98.76

$97.47

1.32%

$1.28

$104.49

-5.49%

$131.52

-24.91%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.40

$12.48

-0.62%

-$0.08

$12.70

-2.32%

$14.94

-16.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

85

46

17

258

122

61

90.00%

31.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

82

28

9

338

102

86

43.00%

35.00%

 

 

E N Central

60

6

18

335

39

73

13.00%

28.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-6

16

404

15

-16

4.00%

-4.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

115

19

12

998

143

91

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

9

18

827

170

158

26.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

115

-7

-20

1,285

204

43

19.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

99

23

12

548

37

117

7.00%

27.00%

 

 

Pacific

81

41

39

266

39

118

17.00%

80.00%

 

 

United States

89

17

14

599

94

83

19.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-3

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

2

2

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

-2

5

3

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-3

-6

5

-3

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-4

0

3

-9

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-6

-1

1

-12

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

2

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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