Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-16-2024

Jul 16, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:32 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.194

$2.158

1.67%

$0.036

31,562

 

 

WTI

$80.60

$81.91

-1.60%

-$1.31

101,318

 

 

Brent

$83.54

$84.85

-1.54%

-$1.31

14,904

 

 

ULSD

$2.468

$2.514

-1.83%

-$0.046

9,104

 

 

RBOB

$2.453

$2.492

-1.55%

-$0.039

10,620

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.03

$4.01

0.50%

$0.02

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.04

$23.56

-2.22%

-$0.52

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$60.47

$70.24

-13.91%

-$9.77

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/12/24

584

-1

-91

07/15/23

 

 

Canada

07/12/24

189

14

2

07/15/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,243

95,088

97,062

-1,974

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,146

86,378

88,128

-1,750

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

355,667

340,026

343,110

-3,084

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

296,292

256,909

249,028

7,881

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,906

110,494

111,825

-1,331

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,684

35,908

36,195

-287

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

165,547

164,258

165,064

-806

 

 

RBOB

403,312

376,410

387,936

-11,526

 

 

HSC Basis

876,614

858,735

870,285

-11,550

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/05/19

 

 

 

7/5/24

6/28/24

Net Change

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

682

660

22

3.33%

653

4.44%

583

17.06%

 

 

Midwest

800

779

21

2.70%

724

10.50%

670

19.44%

 

 

Mountain

245

239

6

2.51%

180

36.11%

166

47.77%

 

 

Pacific

289

282

7

2.48%

225

28.44%

260

11.24%

 

 

South

1,183

1,174

9

0.77%

1,147

3.14%

1,037

14.04%

 

 

    Salt

327

326

1

0.31%

323

1.24%

289

13.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

856

848

8

0.94%

824

3.88%

749

14.35%

 

 

Total

3,199

3,134

65

2.07%

2,930

9.18%

2,715

17.81%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/15/24

7/12/24

% Change

Change

6/13/24

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$65.15

$74.86

-12.97%

-$9.71

$72.22

-9.79%

$56.89

14.51%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$91.37

$122.69

-25.53%

-$31.32

$181.06

-49.54%

$107.20

-14.77%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$67.70

$69.75

-2.94%

-$2.05

$71.00

-4.65%

$112.45

-39.80%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$53.92

$63.32

-14.84%

-$9.40

$68.47

-21.25%

$63.93

-15.66%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$57.67

$67.38

-14.40%

-$9.71

$65.34

-11.73%

$55.73

3.50%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$124.60

$126.11

-1.20%

-$1.51

$126.09

-1.18%

$211.60

-41.11%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$52.80

$62.14

-15.03%

-$9.34

$61.92

-14.72%

$55.07

-4.12%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/15/24

7/12/24

% Change

Change

6/13/24

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.158

$2.329

-7.34%

-$0.17

$3.04

-28.94%

$3.38

-36.12%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.318

-$0.351

-9.54%

$0.03

-$0.28

12.02%

-$0.21

54.37%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.379

-$0.411

8.52%

$0.03

-$0.52

-27.18%

-$0.20

88.79%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.646

-$1.704

-3.39%

$0.06

-$1.07

54.48%

-$0.36

363.41%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.350

-$0.378

7.38%

$0.03

-$0.33

6.15%

-$0.06

459.42%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.682

-$1.689

-0.45%

$0.01

-$2.45

-31.47%

-$1.38

22.21%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.313

$0.270

15.72%

$0.04

$0.14

120.97%

$1.53

-79.59%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/15/24

7/12/24

% Change

Change

6/13/24

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.795

$0.811

-2.01%

-$0.02

$0.80

-0.63%

$0.69

15.38%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.797

$0.818

-2.45%

-$0.02

$0.80

-0.04%

$0.69

15.63%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.165

$0.168

-1.52%

$0.00

$0.21

-21.44%

$0.25

-33.27%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.561

$1.583

-1.38%

-$0.02

$1.52

2.72%

$1.41

11.03%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.915

$0.920

-0.53%

$0.00

$0.87

5.39%

$0.76

21.15%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.340

$6.402

-0.98%

-$0.06

$6.11

3.80%

$5.16

22.84%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.840

$5.890

-0.85%

-$0.05

$5.58

4.67%

$4.72

23.64%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/15/24

7/12/24

% Change

Change

6/13/24

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$80.84

$81.02

-0.22%

-$0.18

$77.82

3.88%

$71.03

13.81%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$84.85

$85.03

-0.21%

-$0.18

$82.30

3.10%

$75.67

12.13%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$15.00

-$15.45

-3.00%

$0.45

-$14.20

5.63%

-$13.80

8.74%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$81.83

$82.20

-0.45%

-$0.37

$79.61

2.78%

$72.61

12.70%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$80.05

$80.03

0.03%

$0.03

$77.67

3.07%

$71.27

12.33%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$80.75

$80.93

-0.23%

-$0.18

$77.70

3.93%

$72.29

11.71%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$82.85

$83.03

-0.22%

-$0.18

$80.30

3.18%

$73.67

12.46%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/15/24

7/12/24

% Change

Change

6/13/24

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.51

$2.51

0.04%

$0.00

$2.49

0.80%

$2.46

2.28%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.49

$2.51

-0.68%

-$0.02

$2.37

5.32%

$2.32

7.55%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.39

$2.41

-0.71%

-$0.02

$2.27

5.56%

$2.22

7.89%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.44

$2.45

-0.45%

-$0.01

$2.48

-1.65%

$2.25

8.54%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.87

$1.92

-2.86%

-$0.05

$1.91

-2.61%

$1.67

11.54%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$733.99

$737.37

-0.46%

-$3.38

$717.25

2.33%

$661.72

10.92%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$98.95

$100.06

-1.11%

-$1.11

$96.91

2.10%

$93.18

6.19%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/15/24

7/12/24

% Change

Change

6/13/24

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

57.93%

49.28%

17.55%

8.65%

69.38%

-16.50%

43.69%

32.59%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

66.89%

60.72%

10.16%

6.17%

83.17%

-19.57%

44.02%

51.95%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

263.90%

259.40%

1.73%

4.50%

107.33%

145.88%

52.65%

401.23%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

65.72%

58.95%

11.48%

6.77%

83.28%

-21.09%

44.83%

46.60%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

102.27%

104.12%

-1.78%

-1.85%

107.67%

-5.02%

46.70%

118.99%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

292.16%

311.73%

-6.28%

-19.57%

106.03%

175.54%

74.20%

293.75%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

248.76%

343.40%

-27.56%

-94.64%

353.87%

-29.70%

181.86%

36.79%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/15/24

7/12/24

% Change

Change

6/13/24

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 31.69

EUR 31.59

0.34%

EUR 0.11

EUR 36.10

-12.21%

EUR 47.34

-33.04%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 73.01

GBP 72.88

0.18%

GBP 0.13

GBP 85.88

-14.99%

GBP 116.40

-37.28%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 68.94

EUR 70.79

-2.61%

-EUR 1.85

EUR 80.54

-14.40%

EUR 121.84

-43.42%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 64.65

GBP 64.33

0.50%

GBP 0.32

GBP 74.88

-13.66%

GBP 102.79

-37.11%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 44.24

EUR 44.57

-0.74%

-EUR 0.33

EUR 42.33

4.51%

EUR 115.70

-61.76%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 96.69

EUR 98.76

-2.10%

-EUR 2.07

EUR 108.02

-10.49%

EUR 131.60

-26.53%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.17

$12.40

-1.92%

-$0.24

$13.05

-6.75%

$15.33

-20.63%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/15/24

7/12/24

% Change

Change

6/13/24

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$31.69

$31.59

0.34%

$0.11

$36.10

-12.21%

$47.34

-33.04%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$73.01

$72.88

0.18%

$0.13

$85.88

-14.99%

$116.40

-37.28%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$68.94

$70.79

-2.61%

-$1.85

$80.54

-14.40%

$121.84

-43.42%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$64.65

$64.33

0.50%

$0.32

$74.88

-13.66%

$102.79

-37.11%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$44.24

$44.57

-0.74%

-$0.33

$42.33

4.51%

$115.70

-61.76%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$96.69

$98.76

-2.10%

-$2.07

$108.02

-10.49%

$131.60

-26.53%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.17

$12.40

-1.92%

-$0.24

$13.05

-6.75%

$15.33

-20.63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

85

46

17

258

122

61

90.00%

31.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

82

28

9

338

102

86

43.00%

35.00%

 

 

E N Central

60

6

18

335

39

73

13.00%

28.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-6

16

404

15

-16

4.00%

-4.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

115

19

12

998

143

91

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

9

18

827

170

158

26.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

115

-7

-20

1,285

204

43

19.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

99

23

12

548

37

117

7.00%

27.00%

 

 

Pacific

81

41

39

266

39

118

17.00%

80.00%

 

 

United States

89

17

14

599

94

83

19.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-3

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

2

2

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

-2

5

3

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-3

-6

5

-3

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-4

0

3

-9

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-6

-1

1

-12

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

2

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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