Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-17-2024

Jul 17, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:42 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.181

$2.188

-0.32%

-$0.007

23,638

 

 

WTI

$81.46

$80.76

0.87%

$0.70

43,969

 

 

Brent

$84.19

$83.73

0.55%

$0.46

7,501

 

 

ULSD

$2.467

$2.469

-0.09%

-$0.002

4,369

 

 

RBOB

$2.480

$2.477

0.09%

$0.002

3,692

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.87

$4.02

-3.73%

-$0.15

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.04

$23.55

-2.17%

-$0.51

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$60.01

$60.47

-0.75%

-$0.46

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/12/24

584

-1

-91

07/15/23

 

 

Canada

07/12/24

189

14

2

07/15/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,243

95,088

97,062

-1,974

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,146

86,378

88,128

-1,750

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

355,667

340,026

343,110

-3,084

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

296,292

256,909

249,028

7,881

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,906

110,494

111,825

-1,331

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,684

35,908

36,195

-287

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

165,547

164,258

165,064

-806

 

 

RBOB

403,312

376,410

387,936

-11,526

 

 

HSC Basis

876,614

858,735

870,285

-11,550

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/05/19

 

 

 

7/5/24

6/28/24

Net Change

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

682

660

22

3.33%

653

4.44%

583

17.06%

 

 

Midwest

800

779

21

2.70%

724

10.50%

670

19.44%

 

 

Mountain

245

239

6

2.51%

180

36.11%

166

47.77%

 

 

Pacific

289

282

7

2.48%

225

28.44%

260

11.24%

 

 

South

1,183

1,174

9

0.77%

1,147

3.14%

1,037

14.04%

 

 

    Salt

327

326

1

0.31%

323

1.24%

289

13.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

856

848

8

0.94%

824

3.88%

749

14.35%

 

 

Total

3,199

3,134

65

2.07%

2,930

9.18%

2,715

17.81%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/16/24

7/15/24

% Change

Change

6/14/24

% Change

7/17/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$64.67

$65.15

-0.74%

-$0.48

$75.21

-14.02%

$57.22

13.02%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$93.84

$91.37

2.70%

$2.47

$174.41

-46.20%

$99.68

-5.86%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$68.03

$67.70

0.49%

$0.33

$69.41

-1.98%

$116.66

-41.68%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$56.61

$53.92

4.99%

$2.69

$74.35

-23.86%

$63.80

-11.26%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$62.25

$57.67

7.94%

$4.58

$67.59

-7.89%

$55.82

11.52%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$110.86

$124.60

-11.03%

-$13.74

$120.32

-7.86%

$184.96

-40.06%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$56.92

$52.80

7.80%

$4.12

$63.95

-11.00%

$55.12

3.26%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/16/24

7/15/24

% Change

Change

6/14/24

% Change

7/17/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.188

$2.158

1.39%

$0.03

$2.96

-26.16%

$3.35

-34.65%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.417

-$0.318

31.29%

-$0.10

-$0.27

55.69%

-$0.20

106.38%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.433

-$0.379

-12.55%

-$0.05

-$0.49

-11.37%

-$0.19

134.22%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.791

-$1.646

-8.81%

-$0.14

-$0.97

83.86%

-$0.34

423.68%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.429

-$0.350

-22.59%

-$0.08

-$0.26

66.85%

-$0.04

875.68%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.592

-$1.682

-5.33%

$0.09

-$2.44

-34.66%

-$1.31

21.25%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.414

$0.313

32.44%

$0.10

$0.12

239.95%

$1.52

-72.76%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/16/24

7/15/24

% Change

Change

6/14/24

% Change

7/17/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.787

$0.795

-0.94%

-$0.01

$0.80

-1.72%

$0.65

20.40%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.797

$0.797

0.00%

$0.00

$0.80

-0.78%

$0.65

21.81%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.166

$0.165

0.81%

$0.00

$0.21

-20.34%

$0.25

-34.36%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.532

$1.561

-1.81%

-$0.03

$1.51

1.65%

$1.35

13.60%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.905

$0.915

-1.07%

-$0.01

$0.87

3.91%

$0.74

21.55%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.320

$6.340

-0.32%

-$0.02

$6.14

2.96%

$5.11

23.71%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.820

$5.840

-0.34%

-$0.02

$5.60

3.93%

$4.60

26.53%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/16/24

7/15/24

% Change

Change

6/14/24

% Change

7/17/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$79.71

$80.84

-1.42%

-$1.13

$77.55

2.79%

$70.42

13.19%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$83.73

$84.85

-1.34%

-$1.12

$82.08

2.01%

$75.05

11.57%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$14.95

-$15.00

-0.33%

$0.05

-$14.80

1.01%

-$13.70

9.13%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$80.83

$81.83

-1.24%

-$1.00

$79.80

1.29%

$71.97

12.31%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$78.79

$80.05

-1.60%

-$1.26

$77.75

1.34%

$68.61

14.83%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$79.73

$80.75

-1.28%

-$1.02

$77.85

2.42%

$69.45

14.81%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$81.73

$82.85

-1.37%

-$1.12

$80.08

2.06%

$73.05

11.88%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/16/24

7/15/24

% Change

Change

6/14/24

% Change

7/17/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.47

$2.51

-1.59%

-$0.04

$2.49

-0.64%

$2.43

1.90%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.48

$2.49

-0.68%

-$0.02

$2.40

3.34%

$2.30

7.70%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.38

$2.39

-0.71%

-$0.02

$2.30

3.48%

$2.20

8.05%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.40

$2.44

-1.84%

-$0.05

$2.44

-1.84%

$2.23

7.64%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.83

$1.87

-1.88%

-$0.03

$1.89

-3.43%

$1.65

11.11%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$718.45

$733.99

-2.12%

-$15.54

$733.75

-2.08%

$654.04

9.85%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$97.57

$98.95

-1.39%

-$1.37

$98.15

-0.58%

$91.69

6.42%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/16/24

7/15/24

% Change

Change

6/14/24

% Change

7/17/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

55.92%

57.93%

-3.47%

-2.01%

69.51%

-19.55%

44.38%

26.00%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

70.45%

66.89%

5.32%

3.56%

80.38%

-12.35%

43.86%

60.62%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

279.38%

263.90%

5.87%

15.48%

105.20%

165.57%

51.22%

445.45%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

71.22%

65.72%

8.37%

5.50%

78.24%

-8.97%

44.64%

59.54%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

96.46%

102.27%

-5.68%

-5.81%

107.64%

-10.39%

42.90%

124.85%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

344.56%

292.16%

17.94%

52.40%

72.19%

377.30%

80.43%

328.40%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

230.25%

248.76%

-7.44%

-18.51%

369.49%

-37.68%

167.27%

37.65%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/16/24

7/15/24

% Change

Change

6/14/24

% Change

7/17/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 32.73

EUR 31.69

3.26%

EUR 1.03

EUR 36.09

-9.32%

EUR 47.56

-31.19%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 76.27

GBP 73.01

4.47%

GBP 3.26

GBP 85.00

-10.27%

GBP 117.19

-34.92%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 71.73

EUR 68.94

4.05%

EUR 2.79

EUR 79.08

-9.30%

EUR 120.36

-40.40%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 66.32

GBP 64.65

2.59%

GBP 1.67

GBP 74.65

-11.16%

GBP 102.68

-35.41%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 45.38

EUR 44.24

2.56%

EUR 1.13

EUR 40.77

11.30%

EUR 116.36

-61.01%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 103.12

EUR 96.69

6.65%

EUR 6.43

EUR 104.90

-1.70%

EUR 133.89

-22.98%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.62

$12.17

3.73%

$0.45

$12.70

-0.67%

$15.47

-18.41%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/16/24

7/15/24

% Change

Change

6/14/24

% Change

7/17/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$32.73

$31.69

3.26%

$1.03

$36.09

-9.32%

$47.56

-31.19%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$76.27

$73.01

4.47%

$3.26

$85.00

-10.27%

$117.19

-34.92%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$71.73

$68.94

4.05%

$2.79

$79.08

-9.30%

$120.36

-40.40%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$66.32

$64.65

2.59%

$1.67

$74.65

-11.16%

$102.68

-35.41%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$45.38

$44.24

2.56%

$1.13

$40.77

11.30%

$116.36

-61.01%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$103.12

$96.69

6.65%

$6.43

$104.90

-1.70%

$133.89

-22.98%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.62

$12.17

3.73%

$0.45

$12.70

-0.67%

$15.47

-18.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

85

46

17

258

122

61

90.00%

31.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

82

28

9

338

102

86

43.00%

35.00%

 

 

E N Central

60

6

18

335

39

73

13.00%

28.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-6

16

404

15

-16

4.00%

-4.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

115

19

12

998

143

91

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

9

18

827

170

158

26.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

115

-7

-20

1,285

204

43

19.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

99

23

12

548

37

117

7.00%

27.00%

 

 

Pacific

81

41

39

266

39

118

17.00%

80.00%

 

 

United States

89

17

14

599

94

83

19.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-3

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

2

2

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

-2

5

3

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-3

-6

5

-3

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-4

0

3

-9

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-6

-1

1

-12

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

2

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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