Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-18-2024

Jul 18, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:43 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.057

$2.035

1.08%

$0.022

19,983

 

 

WTI

$82.82

$82.85

-0.04%

-$0.03

19,677

 

 

Brent

$84.93

$85.08

-0.18%

-$0.15

10,044

 

 

ULSD

$2.485

$2.494

-0.37%

-$0.009

2,773

 

 

RBOB

$2.499

$2.501

-0.10%

-$0.003

3,581

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.63

$3.64

-0.27%

-$0.01

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$22.73

$22.78

-0.22%

-$0.05

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$58.47

$60.31

-3.06%

-$1.84

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/12/24

584

-1

-91

07/15/23

 

 

Canada

07/12/24

189

14

2

07/15/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,243

95,088

97,062

-1,974

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,146

86,378

88,128

-1,750

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

355,667

340,026

343,110

-3,084

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

296,292

256,909

249,028

7,881

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,906

110,494

111,825

-1,331

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,684

35,908

36,195

-287

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

165,547

164,258

165,064

-806

 

 

RBOB

403,312

376,410

387,936

-11,526

 

 

HSC Basis

876,614

858,735

870,285

-11,550

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/05/19

 

 

 

7/5/24

6/28/24

Net Change

% Change

7/7/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

682

660

22

3.33%

653

4.44%

583

17.06%

 

 

Midwest

800

779

21

2.70%

724

10.50%

670

19.44%

 

 

Mountain

245

239

6

2.51%

180

36.11%

166

47.77%

 

 

Pacific

289

282

7

2.48%

225

28.44%

260

11.24%

 

 

South

1,183

1,174

9

0.77%

1,147

3.14%

1,037

14.04%

 

 

    Salt

327

326

1

0.31%

323

1.24%

289

13.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

856

848

8

0.94%

824

3.88%

749

14.35%

 

 

Total

3,199

3,134

65

2.07%

2,930

9.18%

2,715

17.81%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/24

7/16/24

% Change

Change

6/17/24

% Change

7/18/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$62.90

$64.67

-2.74%

-$1.77

$71.44

-11.95%

$57.22

9.91%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$94.05

$93.84

0.22%

$0.21

$174.32

-46.05%

$102.30

-8.06%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$68.00

$68.03

-0.05%

-$0.03

$66.85

1.72%

$111.70

-39.12%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$54.62

$56.61

-3.53%

-$2.00

$69.55

-21.47%

$63.86

-14.47%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$59.51

$62.25

-4.41%

-$2.74

$65.34

-8.92%

$56.82

4.73%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$102.92

$110.86

-7.16%

-$7.93

$118.68

-13.27%

$184.31

-44.16%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$54.22

$56.92

-4.74%

-$2.70

$62.18

-12.80%

$56.06

-3.27%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/24

7/16/24

% Change

Change

6/17/24

% Change

7/18/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.035

$2.188

-6.99%

-$0.15

$2.87

-29.02%

$3.37

-39.65%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.384

-$0.417

-7.86%

$0.03

-$0.28

38.69%

-$0.20

89.78%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.391

-$0.433

10.73%

$0.04

-$0.45

-13.54%

-$0.18

117.15%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.652

-$1.791

-7.79%

$0.14

-$0.94

75.21%

-$0.38

330.18%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.406

-$0.429

5.33%

$0.02

-$0.30

37.58%

-$0.05

785.40%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.629

-$1.592

2.31%

-$0.04

-$2.38

-31.65%

-$1.31

24.39%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.443

$0.414

6.88%

$0.03

$0.11

295.80%

$1.57

-71.73%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/24

7/16/24

% Change

Change

6/17/24

% Change

7/18/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.785

$0.787

-0.31%

$0.00

$0.80

-1.88%

$0.69

14.55%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.785

$0.797

-1.57%

-$0.01

$0.81

-2.79%

$0.68

14.62%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.164

$0.166

-1.58%

$0.00

$0.20

-19.67%

$0.25

-33.55%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.560

$1.532

1.80%

$0.03

$1.53

2.12%

$1.41

11.01%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.915

$0.905

1.02%

$0.01

$0.89

2.81%

$0.74

22.85%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.350

$6.320

0.48%

$0.03

$6.13

3.63%

$5.06

25.39%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.844

$5.820

0.41%

$0.02

$5.61

4.16%

$4.63

26.26%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/24

7/16/24

% Change

Change

6/17/24

% Change

7/18/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$81.44

$79.71

2.12%

$1.73

$79.02

3.06%

$71.61

13.73%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$85.08

$83.73

1.59%

$1.35

$83.52

1.87%

$76.03

11.90%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$14.71

-$14.95

-1.66%

$0.24

-$14.75

-0.29%

-$12.96

13.44%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$82.64

$80.83

2.19%

$1.81

$79.46

4.00%

$74.04

11.62%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$80.00

$78.79

1.50%

$1.20

$77.36

3.41%

$68.89

16.11%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$81.46

$79.73

2.12%

$1.73

$77.57

5.01%

$69.78

16.73%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$83.08

$81.73

1.62%

$1.35

$81.52

1.91%

$74.03

12.22%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/24

7/16/24

% Change

Change

6/17/24

% Change

7/18/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.49

$2.47

0.85%

$0.02

$2.50

-0.24%

$2.45

1.88%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.45

$2.48

-1.09%

-$0.03

$2.39

2.42%

$2.34

4.79%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.35

$2.38

-1.14%

-$0.03

$2.29

2.53%

$2.24

5.00%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.42

$2.40

1.21%

$0.03

$2.46

-1.46%

$2.27

6.78%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.79

$1.83

-2.19%

-$0.04

$1.88

-4.53%

$1.76

1.47%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$725.79

$718.45

1.02%

$7.34

$722.65

0.43%

$665.00

9.14%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$98.15

$97.57

0.59%

$0.58

$97.78

0.39%

$92.09

6.59%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/24

7/16/24

% Change

Change

6/17/24

% Change

7/18/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

64.31%

59.04%

8.93%

5.27%

66.47%

-3.25%

40.82%

57.55%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

69.79%

75.78%

-7.90%

-5.99%

78.10%

-10.64%

42.31%

64.95%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

226.05%

234.17%

-3.47%

-8.12%

100.16%

125.69%

49.25%

358.98%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

70.44%

71.73%

-1.80%

-1.29%

77.37%

-8.96%

42.28%

66.60%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

61.46%

63.57%

-3.32%

-2.11%

71.34%

-13.85%

43.36%

41.74%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

174.00%

176.19%

-1.24%

-2.19%

70.98%

145.14%

61.40%

183.39%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

308.32%

291.76%

5.68%

16.56%

168.52%

82.96%

100.52%

206.73%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/24

7/16/24

% Change

Change

6/17/24

% Change

7/18/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 32.53

EUR 33.72

-3.54%

-EUR 1.19

EUR 35.44

-8.21%

EUR 50.11

-35.09%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 77.87

GBP 80.40

-3.15%

-GBP 2.53

GBP 86.58

-10.06%

GBP 126.29

-38.34%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 76.72

EUR 78.56

-2.34%

-EUR 1.83

EUR 85.21

-9.95%

EUR 144.75

-47.00%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 69.99

GBP 72.31

-3.20%

-GBP 2.32

GBP 78.90

-11.29%

GBP 108.89

-35.72%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 55.08

EUR 58.50

-5.85%

-EUR 3.42

EUR 59.74

-7.80%

EUR 137.55

-59.96%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 102.00

EUR 104.44

-2.33%

-EUR 2.43

EUR 108.14

-5.67%

EUR 158.57

-35.67%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$12.30

$12.62

-2.54%

-$0.32

$12.48

-1.44%

$16.35

-24.77%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/17/24

7/16/24

% Change

Change

6/17/24

% Change

7/18/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$32.53

$33.72

-3.54%

-$1.19

$35.44

-8.21%

$50.11

-35.09%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$77.87

$80.40

-3.15%

-$2.53

$86.58

-10.06%

$126.29

-38.34%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$76.72

$78.56

-2.34%

-$1.83

$85.21

-9.95%

$144.75

-47.00%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$69.99

$72.31

-3.20%

-$2.32

$78.90

-11.29%

$108.89

-35.72%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$55.08

$58.50

-5.85%

-$3.42

$59.74

-7.80%

$137.55

-59.96%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$102.00

$104.44

-2.33%

-$2.43

$108.14

-5.67%

$158.57

-35.67%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$12.30

$12.62

-2.54%

-$0.32

$12.48

-1.44%

$16.35

-24.77%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

85

46

17

258

122

61

90.00%

31.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

82

28

9

338

102

86

43.00%

35.00%

 

 

E N Central

60

6

18

335

39

73

13.00%

28.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-6

16

404

15

-16

4.00%

-4.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

115

19

12

998

143

91

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

9

18

827

170

158

26.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

115

-7

-20

1,285

204

43

19.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

99

23

12

548

37

117

7.00%

27.00%

 

 

Pacific

81

41

39

266

39

118

17.00%

80.00%

 

 

United States

89

17

14

599

94

83

19.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-3

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

2

2

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

-2

5

3

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-3

-6

5

-3

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-4

0

3

-9

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-6

-1

1

-12

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

2

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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