Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-19-2024

Jul 19, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:24 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.076

$2.125

-2.31%

-$0.049

13,766

 

 

WTI

$82.58

$82.82

-0.29%

-$0.24

4,407

 

 

Brent

$84.95

$85.11

-0.19%

-$0.16

8,556

 

 

ULSD

$2.485

$2.487

-0.08%

-$0.002

1,926

 

 

RBOB

$2.515

$2.516

-0.06%

-$0.001

2,737

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.94

$3.81

3.41%

$0.13

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.42

$23.13

1.27%

$0.29

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$59.09

$58.35

1.26%

$0.74

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/12/24

584

-1

-91

07/15/23

 

 

Canada

07/12/24

189

14

2

07/15/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/2/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,243

95,088

97,062

-1,974

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,146

86,378

88,128

-1,750

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

355,667

340,026

343,110

-3,084

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

296,292

256,909

249,028

7,881

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,906

110,494

111,825

-1,331

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,684

35,908

36,195

-287

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

165,547

164,258

165,064

-806

 

 

RBOB

403,312

376,410

387,936

-11,526

 

 

HSC Basis

876,614

858,735

870,285

-11,550

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/12/19

 

 

 

7/12/24

7/5/24

Net Change

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

686

682

4

0.59%

661

3.78%

600

14.41%

 

 

Midwest

814

800

14

1.75%

741

9.85%

692

17.70%

 

 

Mountain

248

245

3

1.22%

186

33.33%

170

45.88%

 

 

Pacific

289

289

0

0.00%

232

24.57%

262

10.22%

 

 

South

1,173

1,183

-10

-0.85%

1,150

2.00%

1,035

13.31%

 

 

    Salt

318

327

-9

-2.75%

321

-0.93%

280

13.49%

 

 

    Non_Salt

855

856

-1

-0.12%

829

3.14%

755

13.22%

 

 

Total

3,209

3,199

10

0.31%

2,971

8.01%

2,760

16.28%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/18/24

7/17/24

% Change

Change

6/18/24

% Change

7/19/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$63.52

$62.90

0.99%

$0.62

$75.22

-15.56%

$56.29

12.85%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$83.83

$94.05

-10.86%

-$10.22

$178.86

-53.13%

$99.02

-15.34%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$67.25

$68.00

-1.10%

-$0.75

$69.98

-3.90%

$112.14

-40.03%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$53.00

$54.62

-2.96%

-$1.61

$72.31

-26.70%

$62.76

-15.54%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$64.30

$59.51

8.06%

$4.79

$68.71

-6.42%

$54.98

16.96%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$109.16

$102.92

6.06%

$6.23

$124.00

-11.97%

$199.47

-45.28%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$58.55

$54.22

7.98%

$4.33

$64.49

-9.22%

$53.30

9.84%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/18/24

7/17/24

% Change

Change

6/18/24

% Change

7/19/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.125

$2.035

4.42%

$0.09

$2.99

-28.93%

$3.32

-35.97%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.391

-$0.384

1.87%

-$0.01

-$0.31

26.45%

-$0.20

93.24%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.379

-$0.391

3.22%

$0.01

-$0.47

-19.24%

-$0.17

122.87%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.439

-$1.652

-12.88%

$0.21

-$1.02

40.52%

-$0.35

308.05%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.365

-$0.406

10.24%

$0.04

-$0.28

29.59%

-$0.04

812.00%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.468

-$1.629

-9.84%

$0.16

-$2.41

-39.04%

-$1.28

15.16%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.587

$0.443

32.49%

$0.14

$0.10

509.98%

$1.54

-61.90%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/18/24

7/17/24

% Change

Change

6/18/24

% Change

7/19/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.788

$0.785

0.32%

$0.00

$0.80

-1.25%

$0.70

12.55%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.791

$0.785

0.81%

$0.01

$0.80

-1.40%

$0.71

12.05%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.168

$0.164

2.46%

$0.00

$0.20

-17.18%

$0.25

-32.26%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.549

$1.560

-0.70%

-$0.01

$1.52

1.61%

$1.44

7.93%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.917

$0.915

0.30%

$0.00

$0.89

2.85%

$0.77

19.43%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.367

$6.350

0.27%

$0.02

$6.23

2.20%

$5.19

22.67%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.830

$5.844

-0.24%

-$0.01

$5.69

2.46%

$4.79

21.65%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/18/24

7/17/24

% Change

Change

6/18/24

% Change

7/19/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$81.30

$81.44

-0.17%

-$0.14

$79.99

1.64%

$71.66

13.45%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$85.11

$85.08

0.04%

$0.03

$84.53

0.69%

$76.21

11.68%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$14.05

-$14.71

-4.65%

$0.65

-$14.75

-4.73%

-$14.07

-0.13%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$82.09

$82.64

-0.66%

-$0.54

$80.70

1.72%

$73.30

11.99%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$79.35

$80.00

-0.82%

-$0.65

$78.85

0.62%

$71.14

11.54%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$80.84

$81.46

-0.76%

-$0.62

$79.01

2.31%

$71.96

12.34%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$83.11

$83.08

0.04%

$0.03

$82.53

0.70%

$74.21

11.99%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/18/24

7/17/24

% Change

Change

6/18/24

% Change

7/19/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.48

$2.49

-0.56%

-$0.01

$2.54

-2.29%

$2.51

-1.16%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.52

$2.45

2.78%

$0.07

$2.45

2.69%

$2.35

7.06%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.42

$2.35

2.89%

$0.07

$2.35

2.81%

$2.25

7.37%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.44

$2.42

0.70%

$0.02

$2.49

-1.97%

$2.29

6.73%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.79

$1.79

0.17%

$0.00

$1.92

-6.52%

$1.74

3.34%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$722.00

$725.79

-0.52%

-$3.79

$733.06

-1.51%

$687.16

5.07%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$97.60

$98.15

-0.57%

-$0.56

$97.82

-0.22%

$95.12

2.61%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/18/24

7/17/24

% Change

Change

6/18/24

% Change

7/19/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

63.93%

64.31%

-0.59%

-0.38%

59.97%

6.60%

41.83%

52.83%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

70.77%

69.79%

1.40%

0.98%

71.55%

-1.09%

43.56%

62.47%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

289.17%

226.05%

27.92%

63.12%

89.79%

222.05%

50.34%

474.43%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

78.15%

70.44%

10.95%

7.71%

69.45%

12.53%

42.42%

84.23%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

61.36%

61.46%

-0.16%

-0.10%

69.65%

-11.90%

44.47%

37.98%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

176.55%

174.00%

1.47%

2.55%

73.60%

139.88%

67.61%

161.13%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

281.30%

308.32%

-8.76%

-27.02%

160.75%

74.99%

99.29%

183.31%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/18/24

7/17/24

% Change

Change

6/18/24

% Change

7/19/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 33.21

EUR 32.53

2.10%

EUR 0.68

EUR 35.92

-7.56%

EUR 50.79

-34.61%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 79.32

GBP 77.87

1.85%

GBP 1.44

GBP 87.24

-9.08%

GBP 128.84

-38.44%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 77.25

EUR 76.72

0.69%

EUR 0.53

EUR 85.45

-9.60%

EUR 149.67

-48.38%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 71.59

GBP 69.99

2.28%

GBP 1.60

GBP 77.84

-8.03%

GBP 105.92

-32.41%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 57.92

EUR 55.08

5.17%

EUR 2.84

EUR 56.53

2.47%

EUR 139.44

-58.46%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 104.29

EUR 102.00

2.24%

EUR 2.28

EUR 109.47

-4.73%

EUR 158.44

-34.18%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$12.42

$12.30

0.95%

$0.12

$12.60

-1.44%

$16.51

-24.79%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/18/24

7/17/24

% Change

Change

6/18/24

% Change

7/19/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$33.21

$32.53

2.10%

$0.68

$35.92

-7.56%

$50.79

-34.61%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$79.32

$77.87

1.85%

$1.44

$87.24

-9.08%

$128.84

-38.44%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$77.25

$76.72

0.69%

$0.53

$85.45

-9.60%

$149.67

-48.38%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$71.59

$69.99

2.28%

$1.60

$77.84

-8.03%

$105.92

-32.41%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$57.92

$55.08

5.17%

$2.84

$56.53

2.47%

$139.44

-58.46%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$104.29

$102.00

2.24%

$2.28

$109.47

-4.73%

$158.44

-34.18%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$12.42

$12.30

0.95%

$0.12

$12.60

-1.44%

$16.51

-24.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

85

46

17

258

122

61

90.00%

31.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

82

28

9

338

102

86

43.00%

35.00%

 

 

E N Central

60

6

18

335

39

73

13.00%

28.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-6

16

404

15

-16

4.00%

-4.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

115

19

12

998

143

91

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

9

18

827

170

158

26.00%

24.00%

 

 

W S Central

115

-7

-20

1,285

204

43

19.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

99

23

12

548

37

117

7.00%

27.00%

 

 

Pacific

81

41

39

266

39

118

17.00%

80.00%

 

 

United States

89

17

14

599

94

83

19.00%

16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/13/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-3

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

2

2

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

-2

5

3

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-3

-6

5

-3

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-4

0

3

-9

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-6

-1

1

-12

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

-1

2

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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