Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-23-2024

Jul 23, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:21 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.210

$2.251

-1.82%

-$0.041

11,666

 

 

WTI

$78.02

$79.78

-2.21%

-$1.76

62,673

 

 

Brent

$82.16

$82.40

-0.29%

-$0.24

8,919

 

 

ULSD

$2.433

$2.435

-0.06%

-$0.001

1,128

 

 

RBOB

$2.463

$2.471

-0.29%

-$0.007

2,720

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.99

$4.00

-0.25%

-$0.01

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.86

$23.95

-0.38%

-$0.09

Sep-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$59.37

$58.67

1.20%

$0.70

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/19/24

586

2

-83

07/22/23

 

 

Canada

07/19/24

197

8

10

07/22/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/9/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

89,396

88,718

88,625

93

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,444

80,988

80,656

332

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

354,724

339,083

342,047

-2,964

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

300,274

259,882

252,157

7,725

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

124,878

113,675

114,559

-884

 

 

NYM Ethanol

39,011

38,263

38,632

-369

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,728

151,584

152,382

-798

 

 

RBOB

409,981

383,131

393,836

-10,705

 

 

HSC Basis

810,239

802,899

805,287

-2,388

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/12/19

 

 

 

7/12/24

7/5/24

Net Change

% Change

7/14/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

686

682

4

0.59%

661

3.78%

600

14.41%

 

 

Midwest

814

800

14

1.75%

741

9.85%

692

17.70%

 

 

Mountain

248

245

3

1.22%

186

33.33%

170

45.88%

 

 

Pacific

289

289

0

0.00%

232

24.57%

262

10.22%

 

 

South

1,173

1,183

-10

-0.85%

1,150

2.00%

1,035

13.31%

 

 

    Salt

318

327

-9

-2.75%

321

-0.93%

280

13.49%

 

 

    Non_Salt

855

856

-1

-0.12%

829

3.14%

755

13.22%

 

 

Total

3,209

3,199

10

0.31%

2,971

8.01%

2,760

16.28%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/22/24

7/19/24

% Change

Change

6/21/24

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$64.07

$63.48

0.92%

$0.59

$64.43

-0.56%

$57.20

12.01%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$94.90

$85.39

11.14%

$9.51

$189.14

-49.83%

$99.84

-4.95%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$70.65

$70.50

0.22%

$0.15

$74.54

-5.22%

$116.08

-39.14%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$53.44

$53.15

0.53%

$0.28

$61.21

-12.70%

$64.05

-16.57%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$63.95

$61.80

3.49%

$2.16

$59.09

8.23%

$56.78

12.64%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$108.21

$107.85

0.33%

$0.36

$126.57

-14.51%

$201.63

-46.33%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$58.25

$56.27

3.53%

$1.99

$58.29

-0.06%

$55.25

5.44%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/22/24

7/19/24

% Change

Change

6/21/24

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.251

$2.128

5.78%

$0.12

$2.84

-20.63%

$3.38

-33.32%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.396

-$0.370

7.02%

-$0.03

-$0.26

55.06%

-$0.20

94.08%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.384

-$0.360

-6.07%

-$0.02

-$0.37

4.15%

-$0.17

130.25%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.451

-$1.398

-3.74%

-$0.05

-$0.93

56.76%

-$0.33

334.86%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.370

-$0.343

-7.87%

-$0.03

-$0.26

42.14%

-$0.02

1713.73%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.482

-$1.416

4.66%

-$0.07

-$2.24

-33.75%

-$1.24

19.65%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.588

$0.580

1.43%

$0.01

$0.12

385.08%

$1.56

-62.17%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/22/24

7/19/24

% Change

Change

6/21/24

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.781

$0.785

-0.48%

$0.00

$0.80

-2.19%

$0.69

12.83%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.781

$0.787

-0.79%

-$0.01

$0.80

-2.66%

$0.68

14.38%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.165

$0.165

0.00%

$0.00

$0.19

-11.29%

$0.24

-31.98%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.502

$1.545

-2.75%

-$0.04

$1.56

-3.77%

$1.41

6.48%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.904

$0.908

-0.39%

$0.00

$0.90

-0.04%

$0.75

20.02%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.250

$6.250

0.00%

$0.00

$6.31

-0.93%

$5.15

21.37%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.750

$5.750

0.00%

$0.00

$5.80

-0.86%

$4.79

20.08%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/22/24

7/19/24

% Change

Change

6/21/24

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$78.40

$78.64

-0.31%

-$0.24

$79.96

-1.95%

$72.68

7.87%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$82.40

$82.63

-0.28%

-$0.23

$84.33

-2.29%

$77.16

6.79%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$14.25

-$14.25

0.00%

$0.00

-$14.00

1.79%

-$13.84

2.97%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$79.43

$81.20

-2.22%

-$1.76

$82.10

-3.25%

$75.19

5.65%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$77.11

$78.82

-2.22%

-$1.71

$80.05

-3.67%

$71.53

7.81%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$78.47

$78.73

-0.32%

-$0.25

$80.47

-2.48%

$72.17

8.73%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$80.40

$80.63

-0.29%

-$0.23

$82.33

-2.34%

$75.16

6.97%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/22/24

7/19/24

% Change

Change

6/21/24

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.44

$2.42

0.45%

$0.01

$2.51

-2.83%

$2.50

-2.40%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.47

$2.46

0.41%

$0.01

$2.49

-0.96%

$2.20

12.13%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.37

$2.36

0.42%

$0.01

$2.39

-1.00%

$2.10

12.71%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.37

$2.37

-0.08%

$0.00

$2.50

-5.36%

$2.45

-3.51%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.86

$1.82

2.20%

$0.04

$1.91

-3.03%

$1.79

3.57%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$704.90

$714.02

-1.28%

-$9.11

$737.50

-4.42%

$687.82

2.48%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$95.46

$97.30

-1.89%

-$1.83

$99.63

-4.18%

$95.95

-0.50%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/22/24

7/19/24

% Change

Change

6/21/24

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

63.89%

64.68%

-1.22%

-0.79%

61.33%

4.17%

45.19%

41.38%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

74.48%

70.82%

5.17%

3.66%

70.44%

5.74%

47.77%

55.91%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

282.91%

283.95%

-0.37%

-1.04%

86.63%

226.57%

51.98%

444.27%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

83.45%

77.51%

7.66%

5.94%

69.28%

20.45%

46.03%

81.29%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

63.50%

62.17%

2.14%

1.33%

68.18%

-6.86%

44.65%

42.22%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

181.68%

178.96%

1.52%

2.72%

65.61%

176.91%

54.96%

230.57%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

317.93%

254.48%

24.93%

63.45%

185.09%

71.77%

97.81%

225.05%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/22/24

7/19/24

% Change

Change

6/21/24

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 32.75

EUR 32.60

0.45%

EUR 0.15

EUR 35.34

-7.32%

EUR 51.59

-36.51%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 78.19

GBP 78.25

-0.07%

-GBP 0.06

GBP 85.56

-8.61%

GBP 130.01

-39.86%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 76.58

EUR 76.46

0.15%

EUR 0.12

EUR 84.32

-9.18%

EUR 149.71

-48.85%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 70.57

GBP 70.62

-0.07%

-GBP 0.05

GBP 79.90

-11.68%

GBP 110.35

-36.05%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 57.18

EUR 56.70

0.84%

EUR 0.48

EUR 62.94

-9.15%

EUR 140.15

-59.20%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 102.61

EUR 103.09

-0.47%

-EUR 0.48

EUR 108.55

-5.47%

EUR 154.27

-33.49%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$12.17

$12.16

0.14%

$0.02

$12.50

-2.62%

$16.60

-26.64%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/22/24

7/19/24

% Change

Change

6/21/24

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$32.75

$32.60

0.45%

$0.15

$35.34

-7.32%

$51.59

-36.51%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$78.19

$78.25

-0.07%

-$0.06

$85.56

-8.61%

$130.01

-39.86%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$76.58

$76.46

0.15%

$0.12

$84.32

-9.18%

$149.71

-48.85%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$70.57

$70.62

-0.07%

-$0.05

$79.90

-11.68%

$110.35

-36.05%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$57.18

$56.70

0.84%

$0.48

$62.94

-9.15%

$140.15

-59.20%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$102.61

$103.09

-0.47%

-$0.48

$108.55

-5.47%

$154.27

-33.49%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$12.17

$12.16

0.14%

$0.02

$12.50

-2.62%

$16.60

-26.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

74

31

7

332

153

71

85.00%

27.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

76

18

4

414

120

93

41.00%

29.00%

 

 

E N Central

56

-1

7

391

38

84

11.00%

27.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-9

5

467

6

-7

1.00%

-1.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

114

17

7

1,112

160

98

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E S Central

100

5

3

927

176

161

23.00%

21.00%

 

 

W S Central

122

-3

-30

1,407

201

16

17.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

97

18

-9

645

55

107

9.00%

20.00%

 

 

Pacific

67

24

-11

333

62

106

23.00%

47.00%

 

 

United States

86

12

-2

685

106

83

18.00%

14.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/20/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-5

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-1

0

2

1

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

4

2

2

9

5

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

3

0

-1

8

-3

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-4

0

3

-12

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

0

1

-17

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

3

-3

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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