Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-24-2023

Jul 24, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 10:30 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.677

$2.713

-1.33%

-$0.036

24,977

 

 

WTI

$78.48

$77.07

1.83%

$1.41

214,383

 

 

Brent

$82.29

$81.07

1.50%

$1.22

14,868

 

 

ULSD

$2.805

$2.746

2.15%

$0.059

9,920

 

 

RBOB

$2.877

$2.802

2.68%

$0.075

12,666

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.81

$4.00

-4.75%

-$0.19

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$39.89

$38.45

3.75%

$1.44

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$46.78

$46.19

1.27%

$0.59

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/21/23

669

-6

-89

07/22/22

 

 

Canada

07/21/23

187

0

-8

07/22/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/18/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

108,969

108,610

108,630

-20

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,989

92,676

92,379

297

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

436,155

410,119

423,583

-13,464

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

133,049

96,952

94,784

2,168

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,091

121,689

125,037

-3,348

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,582

36,332

36,241

91

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,249

160,473

160,853

-380

 

 

RBOB

368,484

343,452

354,619

-11,167

 

 

HSC Basis

578,070

573,172

568,671

4,501

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/20/18

 

 

 

7/14/23

7/7/23

Net Change

% Change

7/15/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

661

653

8

1.23%

521

26.87%

576

14.84%

 

 

Midwest

741

724

17

2.35%

608

21.88%

653

13.51%

 

 

Mountain

186

180

6

3.33%

144

29.17%

163

14.39%

 

 

Pacific

232

225

7

3.11%

253

-8.30%

268

-13.37%

 

 

South

1,150

1,147

3

0.26%

874

31.58%

968

18.85%

 

 

    Salt

321

323

-2

-0.62%

206

55.83%

255

25.69%

 

 

    Non_Salt

829

824

5

0.61%

669

23.92%

712

16.37%

 

 

Total

2,971

2,930

41

1.40%

2,401

23.74%

2,627

13.09%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/21/23

7/20/23

% Change

Change

6/22/23

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$52.51

$52.00

0.98%

$0.51

$46.33

13.34%

$73.76

-28.81%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$140.92

$159.24

-11.51%

-$18.32

$139.39

1.10%

$112.28

25.50%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$101.38

$102.08

-0.69%

-$0.71

$124.04

-18.27%

$113.79

-10.91%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$56.86

$57.44

-1.01%

-$0.58

$51.98

9.39%

$81.73

-30.43%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$46.51

$52.34

-11.14%

-$5.83

$46.57

-0.13%

$74.35

-37.45%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$183.02

$186.65

-1.94%

-$3.63

$215.42

-15.04%

$138.94

31.72%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$46.44

$51.11

-9.14%

-$4.67

$44.85

3.53%

$70.48

-34.11%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/21/23

7/20/23

% Change

Change

6/22/23

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-23

$2.713

$2.757

-1.60%

-$0.04

$2.70

0.33%

$5.01

-45.83%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-23

-$0.203

-$0.217

-6.28%

$0.01

-$0.09

135.34%

-$0.14

42.23%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-23

-$0.238

-$0.255

7.09%

$0.02

-$0.20

17.96%

-$0.22

9.41%

 

 

Waha

Aug-23

-$0.372

-$0.428

-13.22%

$0.06

-$0.57

-34.57%

-$1.53

-75.72%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-23

-$0.487

-$0.532

8.46%

$0.04

$0.01

-4126.45%

-$0.44

9.98%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-23

-$0.785

-$0.746

5.29%

-$0.04

-$0.96

-18.02%

-$1.38

-43.26%

 

 

Socal

Aug-23

$2.125

$1.980

7.30%

$0.14

$2.42

-12.08%

$0.69

207.67%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/21/23

7/20/23

% Change

Change

6/22/23

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.665

$0.671

-0.91%

-$0.01

$0.56

18.56%

$0.93

-28.72%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.640

$0.648

-1.18%

-$0.01

$0.54

17.43%

$0.91

-29.74%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.273

$0.278

-1.75%

$0.00

$0.21

29.12%

$0.40

-31.52%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.421

$1.440

-1.27%

-$0.02

$1.30

9.31%

$1.68

-15.34%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.769

$0.772

-0.45%

$0.00

$0.62

24.20%

$1.05

-26.99%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.658

$0.646

1.84%

$0.01

$0.54

20.83%

$0.93

-29.07%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.487

$1.520

-2.18%

-$0.03

$1.38

7.42%

$1.73

-14.11%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/21/23

7/20/23

% Change

Change

6/22/23

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$77.07

$75.65

1.84%

$1.42

$69.63

10.69%

$80.86

-4.69%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$81.07

$79.64

1.76%

$1.43

$74.35

9.04%

$86.34

-6.10%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$15.29

-$14.27

6.68%

-$1.02

-$13.46

13.60%

-$16.80

-8.98%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$79.28

$77.55

2.17%

$1.72

$71.89

10.28%

$84.24

-5.89%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$77.31

$75.44

2.42%

$1.87

$68.53

12.81%

$80.29

-3.71%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$77.94

$76.26

2.15%

$1.68

$69.44

12.23%

$78.88

-1.19%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$79.07

$77.64

1.81%

$1.43

$72.35

9.29%

$85.47

-7.49%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/21/23

7/20/23

% Change

Change

6/22/23

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.75

$2.66

3.04%

$0.08

$2.41

13.75%

$2.94

-6.60%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.41

$2.57

-6.03%

-$0.15

$2.39

0.96%

$2.48

-2.82%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.32

$2.47

-6.28%

-$0.15

$2.29

1.00%

$2.38

-2.94%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.66

$2.45

8.69%

$0.21

$2.18

22.10%

$3.03

-11.97%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.41

$2.41

-0.21%

-$0.01

$2.52

-4.29%

$2.05

17.74%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$748.14

$723.45

3.41%

$24.70

$666.07

12.32%

$856.19

-12.62%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$101.08

$99.36

1.73%

$1.72

$93.12

8.54%

$111.16

-9.07%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/21/23

7/20/23

% Change

Change

6/22/23

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

64.75%

59.27%

9.25%

5.48%

75.67%

-14.43%

55.94%

15.75%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

82.64%

77.75%

6.29%

4.89%

104.40%

-20.84%

75.40%

9.60%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

87.45%

77.85%

12.33%

9.60%

100.11%

-12.65%

132.24%

-33.87%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

72.35%

65.73%

10.07%

6.62%

83.79%

-13.65%

57.78%

25.22%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

49.90%

50.85%

-1.87%

-0.95%

53.38%

-6.52%

51.79%

-3.65%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

136.02%

135.07%

0.70%

0.95%

132.64%

2.55%

73.04%

86.23%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

212.56%

205.80%

3.28%

6.76%

200.96%

5.77%

90.38%

135.18%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/21/23

7/20/23

% Change

Change

6/22/23

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 29.26

EUR 30.37

-3.66%

-EUR 1.11

EUR 36.28

-19.35%

EUR 124.04

-76.41%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 73.23

GBP 75.14

-2.55%

-GBP 1.92

GBP 90.97

-19.50%

GBP 262.17

-72.07%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 93.46

EUR 91.14

2.55%

EUR 2.32

EUR 113.81

-17.88%

EUR 290.64

-67.84%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 81.73

GBP 80.98

0.92%

GBP 0.74

GBP 99.67

-18.00%

GBP 248.85

-67.16%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 90.19

EUR 87.96

2.54%

EUR 2.24

EUR 114.58

-21.28%

EUR 274.98

-67.20%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 108.60

EUR 112.75

-3.68%

-EUR 4.15

EUR 124.57

-12.82%

EUR 288.82

-62.40%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$12.40

$12.36

0.36%

$0.05

$11.97

3.66%

$33.55

-63.03%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

16

-17

268

77

-1

40.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

65

6

-23

328

17

-46

5.00%

-12.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-32

313

-56

-140

-15.00%

-31.00%

 

 

W N Central

53

-19

-40

481

0

-119

0.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

105

7

-1

1,028

49

-119

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

95

0

-12

778

0

-180

0.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

148

23

-4

1,410

169

-188

14.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Mountain

108

29

1

554

-59

-148

-10.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Pacific

79

35

8

238

-46

-88

-16.00%

-27.00%

 

 

United States

84

9

-12

613

13

-115

2.00%

-16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-6

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-2

0

0

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

2

0

2

4

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

1

4

14

3

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-3

0

4

-12

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

-1

1

-18

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

To opt out of this email please follow this link.

Campbell Faulkner | OTC Global Holdings

Quality Data – Reliable Service – Affordable Price

5151 San Felipe Suite 2200
Houston, TX 77056
faulkner.c@otcgh.com
eoxlive.com/market-data

 

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.