Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-25-2023

Jul 25, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:24 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.664

$2.685

-0.78%

-$0.021

7,362

 

 

WTI

$78.43

$78.74

-0.39%

-$0.31

89,334

 

 

Brent

$82.48

$82.74

-0.31%

-$0.26

5,176

 

 

ULSD

$2.741

$2.770

-1.05%

-$0.029

2,544

 

 

RBOB

$2.845

$2.895

-1.72%

-$0.050

2,766

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.99

$4.00

-0.25%

-$0.01

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$37.96

$39.45

-3.77%

-$1.49

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$46.88

$46.77

0.24%

$0.11

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/21/23

669

-6

-89

07/22/22

 

 

Canada

07/21/23

187

0

-8

07/22/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/18/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

108,969

108,610

108,630

-20

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,989

92,676

92,379

297

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

436,155

410,119

423,583

-13,464

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

133,049

96,952

94,784

2,168

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,091

121,689

125,037

-3,348

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,582

36,332

36,241

91

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,249

160,473

160,853

-380

 

 

RBOB

368,484

343,452

354,619

-11,167

 

 

HSC Basis

578,070

573,172

568,671

4,501

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/20/18

 

 

 

7/14/23

7/7/23

Net Change

% Change

7/15/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

661

653

8

1.23%

521

26.87%

576

14.84%

 

 

Midwest

741

724

17

2.35%

608

21.88%

653

13.51%

 

 

Mountain

186

180

6

3.33%

144

29.17%

163

14.39%

 

 

Pacific

232

225

7

3.11%

253

-8.30%

268

-13.37%

 

 

South

1,150

1,147

3

0.26%

874

31.58%

968

18.85%

 

 

    Salt

321

323

-2

-0.62%

206

55.83%

255

25.69%

 

 

    Non_Salt

829

824

5

0.61%

669

23.92%

712

16.37%

 

 

Total

2,971

2,930

41

1.40%

2,401

23.74%

2,627

13.09%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/24/23

7/21/23

% Change

Change

6/23/23

% Change

7/25/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$52.58

$52.51

0.14%

$0.07

$48.88

7.58%

$83.81

-37.26%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$138.96

$140.92

-1.39%

-$1.96

$147.10

-5.53%

$132.00

5.27%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$103.80

$101.38

2.40%

$2.43

$134.24

-22.67%

$119.85

-13.39%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$55.04

$56.86

-3.21%

-$1.82

$54.97

0.12%

$85.77

-35.83%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$47.30

$46.51

1.69%

$0.79

$46.13

2.53%

$78.10

-39.44%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$179.05

$183.02

-2.17%

-$3.96

$224.98

-20.41%

$146.62

22.12%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$51.31

$46.44

10.49%

$4.87

$44.86

14.36%

$77.58

-33.86%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/24/23

7/21/23

% Change

Change

6/23/23

% Change

7/25/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-23

$2.685

$2.713

-1.03%

-$0.03

$2.84

-5.56%

$5.16

-48.02%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-23

-$0.197

-$0.203

-3.15%

$0.01

-$0.08

153.15%

-$0.15

31.13%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-23

-$0.236

-$0.238

0.85%

$0.00

-$0.23

3.19%

-$0.24

-0.21%

 

 

Waha

Aug-23

-$0.366

-$0.372

-1.61%

$0.01

-$0.53

-30.78%

-$1.59

-77.00%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-23

-$0.516

-$0.487

-5.99%

-$0.03

-$0.22

130.84%

-$0.22

134.94%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-23

-$0.756

-$0.785

-3.78%

$0.03

-$0.99

-23.29%

-$1.48

-48.96%

 

 

Socal

Aug-23

$2.138

$2.125

0.63%

$0.01

$2.49

-14.19%

$0.70

205.66%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/24/23

7/21/23

% Change

Change

6/23/23

% Change

7/25/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.656

$0.665

-1.31%

-$0.01

$0.57

15.88%

$0.93

-29.75%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.630

$0.640

-1.57%

-$0.01

$0.54

15.99%

$0.94

-32.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.270

$0.273

-0.97%

$0.00

$0.22

25.62%

$0.42

-35.74%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.439

$1.421

1.24%

$0.02

$1.25

15.12%

$1.69

-14.81%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.748

$0.769

-2.69%

-$0.02

$0.63

19.49%

$1.08

-30.77%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.635

$0.658

-3.49%

-$0.02

$0.55

14.92%

$0.93

-32.04%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.500

$1.487

0.91%

$0.01

$1.35

10.99%

$1.73

-13.30%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/24/23

7/21/23

% Change

Change

6/23/23

% Change

7/25/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$78.74

$77.07

2.12%

$1.67

$69.32

13.59%

$82.70

-4.79%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$82.74

$81.07

2.02%

$1.67

$74.01

11.80%

$88.18

-6.17%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$14.50

-$15.29

-5.48%

$0.79

-$12.89

12.47%

-$17.08

-15.13%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$80.71

$79.28

1.78%

$1.43

$71.77

12.45%

$82.52

-2.20%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$78.45

$77.31

1.46%

$1.14

$67.71

15.86%

$80.55

-2.60%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$79.27

$77.94

1.69%

$1.34

$69.00

14.88%

$80.74

-1.81%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$80.74

$79.07

2.07%

$1.67

$72.01

12.12%

$85.26

-5.30%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/24/23

7/21/23

% Change

Change

6/23/23

% Change

7/25/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.77

$2.75

0.95%

$0.03

$2.37

16.81%

$2.92

-5.23%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.45

$2.41

1.49%

$0.04

$2.44

0.57%

$2.49

-1.65%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.35

$2.32

1.56%

$0.04

$2.34

0.60%

$2.39

-1.71%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.62

$2.66

-1.69%

-$0.05

$2.15

21.77%

$2.77

-5.52%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.44

$2.41

1.37%

$0.03

$2.47

-1.13%

$2.00

22.04%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$766.07

$748.14

2.40%

$17.93

$642.58

19.22%

$837.20

-8.50%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$102.79

$101.08

1.69%

$1.71

$90.05

14.15%

$103.11

-0.31%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/24/23

7/21/23

% Change

Change

6/23/23

% Change

7/25/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

65.54%

64.75%

1.22%

0.79%

68.12%

-3.79%

48.64%

34.75%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

84.49%

82.64%

2.24%

1.85%

85.76%

-1.48%

69.62%

21.36%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

85.00%

87.45%

-2.80%

-2.45%

98.43%

-13.64%

126.57%

-32.84%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

72.96%

72.35%

0.84%

0.61%

74.49%

-2.05%

50.12%

45.57%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

54.52%

49.90%

9.26%

4.62%

55.98%

-2.61%

54.03%

0.91%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

154.27%

136.02%

13.42%

18.25%

131.33%

17.47%

72.70%

112.20%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

216.96%

212.56%

2.07%

4.40%

201.36%

7.75%

89.64%

142.03%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/24/23

7/21/23

% Change

Change

6/23/23

% Change

7/25/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 31.41

EUR 29.26

7.36%

EUR 2.15

EUR 35.76

-12.16%

EUR 131.81

-76.17%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 78.85

GBP 73.23

7.67%

GBP 5.62

GBP 88.65

-11.06%

GBP 286.21

-72.45%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 93.34

EUR 93.46

-0.14%

-EUR 0.13

EUR 110.30

-15.38%

EUR 307.56

-69.65%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 83.16

GBP 81.73

1.75%

GBP 1.43

GBP 94.33

-11.85%

GBP 228.66

-63.63%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 91.42

EUR 90.19

1.36%

EUR 1.23

EUR 113.44

-19.42%

EUR 286.38

-68.08%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 117.15

EUR 108.60

7.87%

EUR 8.54

EUR 119.76

-2.18%

EUR 297.81

-60.66%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$12.41

$12.40

0.08%

$0.01

$11.75

5.70%

$35.14

-64.67%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

16

-17

268

77

-1

40.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

65

6

-23

328

17

-46

5.00%

-12.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-32

313

-56

-140

-15.00%

-31.00%

 

 

W N Central

53

-19

-40

481

0

-119

0.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

105

7

-1

1,028

49

-119

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

95

0

-12

778

0

-180

0.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

148

23

-4

1,410

169

-188

14.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Mountain

108

29

1

554

-59

-148

-10.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Pacific

79

35

8

238

-46

-88

-16.00%

-27.00%

 

 

United States

84

9

-12

613

13

-115

2.00%

-16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-6

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-2

0

0

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

2

0

2

4

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

1

4

14

3

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-3

0

4

-12

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

-1

1

-18

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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